Reply to Harris beating Trump in Iowa

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The Selzer poll is generally considered the gold standard in polling. Dr. Selzer and her firm only tackle Iowa-level races, but it's the one poll that doesn't miss: she predicted Obama's caucus win in 2008, and Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020 (again, in Iowa) and was within 2% of the final margins - so even when people where saying that Biden was comfortably leading Trump, Seltzer's data was actually showing Trump winning Iowa by +7 or so (which meant the rest of the race in swing states was going to be much tighter, which it ended up being). This is the one poll that continued to output good quality results, even in the face of Trumpism and during the COVID years.[/quote]

That is really good news to hear.[/quote]

Ann Selzer really knows how to poll Iowa, and her polling is highly respected as the golden standard. It matches well with another Kansas poll a few days ago, showing Harris is only lagged by 5 points. Also Harris is polling very well at NE-2.

More importantly, Emerson College released another Iowa polling today showing Trump leading by 10%. This means one poll must be wrong. I will bet my money that Selzer is on the right track. Emerson College is using the recall-polling methods, which seems unable to capture major shift.[/quote]

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