Anonymous
01/22/2020 09:45
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It is amazing how many Trump supporters, like Hugh Hewitt, are rallying for a Sanders win.
He’s easily one of the weakest candidates, if not the weakest.
Agree. Lots of Dems will stay home.
Anonymous
01/22/2020 09:05
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
On RCP today - nice to see they are polling Klobuchar against Trump now, and that she's winning
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders CNN Sanders 52, Trump 45 Sanders +7
General Election: Trump vs. Warren CNN Warren 50, Trump 45 Warren +5
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg CNN Buttigieg 49, Trump 45 Buttigieg +4
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg CNN Bloomberg 52, Trump 43 Bloomberg +9
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar CNN Klobuchar 48, Trump 45 Klobuchar +3
Anonymous
01/19/2020 13:15
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
please, Ds, please don't make me vote for Sanders. ugh
Anonymous
01/19/2020 13:13
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:It is amazing how many Trump supporters, like Hugh Hewitt, are rallying for a Sanders win.
He’s easily one of the weakest candidates, if not the weakest.
Anonymous
01/19/2020 12:34
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
It is amazing how many Trump supporters, like Hugh Hewitt, are rallying for a Sanders win.
Anonymous
01/17/2020 17:02
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
#California Democratic Primary:
Biden 30%
Sanders 20%
Warren 20%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Yang 4%
Steyer 4%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
@surveyusa Poll
Biden 30%
Sanders 20%
Warren 20%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Yang 4%
Steyer 4%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
@surveyusa Poll
Anonymous
01/16/2020 21:22
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL:
Democratic Primary:
23% @BernieSanders (-3)
18% @PeteButtigieg (-4)
14% @JoeBiden (+/-0)
14% @ewarren (+/-0)
10% @amyklobuchar (+8)
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-holds-lead-klobuchar-surges-to-double-digits
Democratic Primary:
23% @BernieSanders (-3)
18% @PeteButtigieg (-4)
14% @JoeBiden (+/-0)
14% @ewarren (+/-0)
10% @amyklobuchar (+8)
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-holds-lead-klobuchar-surges-to-double-digits
Anonymous
01/16/2020 10:50
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:more swing state polling on RCP today - I think the TL;DR is that this is going to be a really close race (and jfc when will this anxiety subside)
Wisconsin Democratic Primary Marquette Biden 23, Sanders 19, Warren 14, Buttigieg 15, Bloomberg 6, Yang 6, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders Marquette Sanders 47, Trump 46 Sanders +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren Marquette Trump 48, Warren 45 Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Buttigieg Marquette Trump 46, Buttigieg 44 Trump +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 51, Trump 49 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders Florida Atlantic University Sanders 53, Trump 47 Sanders +6
Florida: Trump vs. Warren Florida Atlantic University Trump 49, Warren 51 Warren +2
Florida: Trump vs. Buttigieg Florida Atlantic University Trump 50, Buttigieg 50 Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders EPIC-MRA Sanders 50, Trump 45 Sanders +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren EPIC-MRA Warren 48, Trump 45 Warren +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Buttigieg EPIC-MRA Buttigieg 47, Trump 43 Buttigieg +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Bloomberg EPIC-MRA Bloomberg 49, Trump 42 Bloomberg +7
(Strange to see Bloomberg of all people polling higher than anyone else in Michigan)
Americans are generally dumb and sheep. aka it's because Bloomberg has spent money on ads in Michigan and no one else has
Anonymous
01/16/2020 09:32
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
more swing state polling on RCP today - I think the TL;DR is that this is going to be a really close race (and jfc when will this anxiety subside)
(Strange to see Bloomberg of all people polling higher than anyone else in Michigan)
Wisconsin Democratic Primary Marquette Biden 23, Sanders 19, Warren 14, Buttigieg 15, Bloomberg 6, Yang 6, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders Marquette Sanders 47, Trump 46 Sanders +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren Marquette Trump 48, Warren 45 Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Buttigieg Marquette Trump 46, Buttigieg 44 Trump +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 51, Trump 49 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders Florida Atlantic University Sanders 53, Trump 47 Sanders +6
Florida: Trump vs. Warren Florida Atlantic University Trump 49, Warren 51 Warren +2
Florida: Trump vs. Buttigieg Florida Atlantic University Trump 50, Buttigieg 50 Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders EPIC-MRA Sanders 50, Trump 45 Sanders +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren EPIC-MRA Warren 48, Trump 45 Warren +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Buttigieg EPIC-MRA Buttigieg 47, Trump 43 Buttigieg +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Bloomberg EPIC-MRA Bloomberg 49, Trump 42 Bloomberg +7
(Strange to see Bloomberg of all people polling higher than anyone else in Michigan)
Anonymous
01/15/2020 15:46
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:
Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000
What's perhaps more relevant is that strongly disapprove is at 43%. And the Strongly approve + somewhat approve adds up to 43% too.
In a typical election the Democrats are guaranteed 43% of the vote, no matter what. Same for the Republicans. Each side will get a minimum of 43%.
There is that 11% who somewhat disapprove. Which means they don't feel so strongly as to a strongly disapprove of Trump. Which is this floating pool of independents/central voters that the Democrats need to defeat Trump.
It's not guaranteed that the majority of the somewhat disapprove will automatically vote for the Democratic candidate. It will very much depend on who the Democratic nominee is. They are not in a rush to toss out Trump just because he is Trump because, they only "somewhat disapprove."
If Trump keeps his full 43% approving voters and captures slightly more than half that somewhat disapprove bloc, which is well within the realm of possibility, he will win re-election.
And I suspect that is what will happen, especially if Bernie is the nominee.
Great analysis. Thank you.
Anonymous
01/15/2020 15:45
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:
Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000
The past few years have been so crazy and the Dems’ proposals so ambitious that I half-suspect a non-negligible number of right-leaning people who strongly disapprove of Trump will nevertheless end up voting for him.
Great, show us that poll, please. My lifelong Republican father and stepmother, who have eight figures in the market between them, are downright excited to vote against Trump. Even if it’s Bernie.
I don't care about your anecdotal lifelong Republican father and stepmother. But what I do know is that I'm a centrist independent and I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee.
Disapproval doesn't translate into voting against that person. Half the story in politics is always who the opposition is.
So, no poll then. Perhaps you should find another thread?
You don't have a poll either about your Republican father and his "eight figure" networth being eager to vote Trump out of office.
How do I know he's just being nice to you to shut you up but privately fully intends to vote for Trump, especially if Bernie is the nominee? Let's have a poll on that!
The difference between you and me is that I can't rely on your assertion that your Republican father will vote for Bernie over Trump. I don't know if you made it up or not. I don't know if your father is lying to you or not. But what I do know is that I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee, and that is the only thing credible here.
Anonymous
01/15/2020 15:44
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:
Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000
The past few years have been so crazy and the Dems’ proposals so ambitious that I half-suspect a non-negligible number of right-leaning people who strongly disapprove of Trump will nevertheless end up voting for him.
Great, show us that poll, please. My lifelong Republican father and stepmother, who have eight figures in the market between them, are downright excited to vote against Trump. Even if it’s Bernie.
I don't care about your anecdotal lifelong Republican father and stepmother. But what I do know is that I'm a centrist independent and I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee.
Disapproval doesn't translate into voting against that person. Half the story in politics is always who the opposition is.
So, no poll then. Perhaps you should find another thread?
??
PP is making a perfectly relevant point. Some posters are confusing Trump approval rate with intention to vote for him or not -- which would be impossible to poll now anyway as there is no declared Dem ticket.
Anonymous
01/15/2020 15:43
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:
Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000
What's perhaps more relevant is that strongly disapprove is at 43%. And the Strongly approve + somewhat approve adds up to 43% too.
In a typical election the Democrats are guaranteed 43% of the vote, no matter what. Same for the Republicans. Each side will get a minimum of 43%.
There is that 11% who somewhat disapprove. Which means they don't feel so strongly as to a strongly disapprove of Trump. Which is this floating pool of independents/central voters that the Democrats need to defeat Trump.
It's not guaranteed that the majority of the somewhat disapprove will automatically vote for the Democratic candidate. It will very much depend on who the Democratic nominee is. They are not in a rush to toss out Trump just because he is Trump because, they only "somewhat disapprove."
If Trump keeps his full 43% approving voters and captures slightly more than half that somewhat disapprove bloc, which is well within the realm of possibility, he will win re-election.
And I suspect that is what will happen, especially if Bernie is the nominee.
Anonymous
01/15/2020 15:40
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:
Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000
The past few years have been so crazy and the Dems’ proposals so ambitious that I half-suspect a non-negligible number of right-leaning people who strongly disapprove of Trump will nevertheless end up voting for him.
Great, show us that poll, please. My lifelong Republican father and stepmother, who have eight figures in the market between them, are downright excited to vote against Trump. Even if it’s Bernie.
I don't care about your anecdotal lifelong Republican father and stepmother. But what I do know is that I'm a centrist independent and I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee.
Disapproval doesn't translate into voting against that person. Half the story in politics is always who the opposition is.
So, no poll then. Perhaps you should find another thread?
Anonymous
01/15/2020 15:34
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:
Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000
The past few years have been so crazy and the Dems’ proposals so ambitious that I half-suspect a non-negligible number of right-leaning people who strongly disapprove of Trump will nevertheless end up voting for him.
Great, show us that poll, please. My lifelong Republican father and stepmother, who have eight figures in the market between them, are downright excited to vote against Trump. Even if it’s Bernie.
I don't care about your anecdotal lifelong Republican father and stepmother. But what I do know is that I'm a centrist independent and I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee.
Disapproval doesn't translate into voting against that person. Half the story in politics is always who the opposition is.