Reply to Is there going to be panic selling?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.[/quote]

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left. [/quote]

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.[/quote]

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools.  Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here. [/quote]

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here. [/quote]

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/[/quote]

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors.  There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains.  Do you really see this happening? [/quote]

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump. [/quote]

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