Anonymous
02/10/2025 22:26
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
People laid off in DC can work remotely for places elsewhere, or they can rent out their homes and move, thereby limiting the supply of houses for sale and keeping prices up. The laid-off people will ultimately be okay. Wealthier people connected to Trump et al. will get wealthier. More people will find themselves at the bottom, but it will be those already clinging to the lower rungs of the ladder. Not government employees and contractors. Income inequality will increase. Many who thought they would be better off will not be.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 21:33
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.
Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.
OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.
Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.
They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.
According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/
Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?
I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:37
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Delusional thinking on here that the market will hold up at all. Most federal work will be computer/AI when Musk is done. Decision makes and computers, Nothing more And what is left of agencies will be moved outside of DC. few contractors, partly bc rates will be too low and contract terms to risky. DC is going to be gutted, in totality.
+1000000
LOL sure
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:34
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Delusional thinking on here that the market will hold up at all. Most federal work will be computer/AI when Musk is done. Decision makes and computers, Nothing more And what is left of agencies will be moved outside of DC. few contractors, partly bc rates will be too low and contract terms to risky. DC is going to be gutted, in totality.
Can you please show what information you base this bolded statement on? What specific executive order is this referring to? Everything cannot move out of DC area unless the entire capital will be relocated. And yes, there are "sentiments" on that because of so much vitriol towards the entire area of DC . The rage of peasants is shifted, as usual, towards other peasants working for a paycheck but slightly better off or having supposed "stability". But angry bots and trolls online aren't proof that any of this is happening.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:27
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.
Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.
OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.
Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.
They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.
According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/
Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:21
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.
Contractors are also being let go.
Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.
It's amusing that you just realized that the reason Trump wants feds gone is to have AI take over many government functions Most tech people understand that a large part of the current workforce will be on UBI within 10 years and only high touch jobs will be available.
I have been hearing tech will take over jobs forever and the closest we've come is automation is manufacturing which is not putting out white collar workers. Musk has been touting that FSD will be a thing in a year for over half a decade. So sorry if I have a hard time believing we're going to be living in a full AI universe in a decade.
I wouldn't panic sell based on AI. I would panic though that the country is going to be in a deep recession because a bunch of dudes who were never told they were cool want to run the planet like the dumbest cartoon villains.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:20
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.
Contractors are also being let go.
Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.
AI doesn't even answer questions correctly about most current events, it hallucinates, cannot properly identify the number of syllables in certain words, it also poses significant data security risks PII. He doesn't even understand how most of these government agencies operate. There are potential use cases to make things more efficient, but AI is significantly overhyped. AI is very bad at providing answers to niche topics that require significant judgement. There are also outstanding legal questions about copyright that might kneecap AI altogether. The major AI platform are currently subsidized by investors and the uncompensated use of copyrighted content. If they have to start paying for training data and charging breakeven prices it will get significantly more expensive to use AI services.
ITA. people who say every job can be replaced by AI don't know much about AI and especially its vulnerabilities.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:18
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.
Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.
OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.
Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.
They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.
THIS. And those who bought long ago and have affordable housing here may be up for a sticker shock if prices do plummet a lot and unable to relocate anywhere other than economically depressed areas with few amenities.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:17
Subject: Re:Is there going to be panic selling?
Deep breath-- I thought you were talking about the stock market.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:16
Subject: Re:Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:What does this have to do with real estate? Move to political forum.
impact on real estate and real estate dynamics. This is not a discussion about specific agencies or politics, but general dynamics of RE market in DC area over time, in diff areas and price ranges and how this will be effected by what's happening now and how people feel about it. Also dynamics of a job market and local economy which directly relates to RE. And people having different opinions.
Sigh, we are gonna have to fight the robots like in Dune.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:16
Subject: Re:Is there going to be panic selling?
You know, feds can get other remote jobs. I own a consulting business with 14 employees who live all over the country. Our lowest salary is around $80k with great benefits. We aren't hiring but there are jobs out there.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:13
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.
Contractors are also being let go.
Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.
AI doesn't even answer questions correctly about most current events, it hallucinates, cannot properly identify the number of syllables in certain words, it also poses significant data security risks PII. He doesn't even understand how most of these government agencies operate. There are potential use cases to make things more efficient, but AI is significantly overhyped. AI is very bad at providing answers to niche topics that require significant judgement. There are also outstanding legal questions about copyright that might kneecap AI altogether. The major AI platform are currently subsidized by investors and the uncompensated use of copyrighted content. If they have to start paying for training data and charging breakeven prices it will get significantly more expensive to use AI services.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 20:08
Subject: Re:Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:What does this have to do with real estate? Move to political forum.
impact on real estate and real estate dynamics. This is not a discussion about specific agencies or politics, but general dynamics of RE market in DC area over time, in diff areas and price ranges and how this will be effected by what's happening now and how people feel about it. Also dynamics of a job market and local economy which directly relates to RE. And people having different opinions.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 19:20
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.
Contractors are also being let go.
Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.
It's amusing that you just realized that the reason Trump wants feds gone is to have AI take over many government functions Most tech people understand that a large part of the current workforce will be on UBI within 10 years and only high touch jobs will be available.
Anonymous
02/10/2025 19:17
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:it will only be the bozos who have a 300k HHI with. 5k+ mortgage and then are forced to drop to one income. That demographic will be tanked.
My husband and I almost ended up in this exact scenario (both still employed, but I am a contractor). We are SO, SO GRATEFUL we bought well below our means. I always tell him I could essentially make my ‘half’ of the mortgage working retail.