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[quote=Anonymous]There has been a fairly peaceful status quo between China and Taiwan for more than 70 years. And Taiwan is not Crimea. It is a mountainous and heavily defended fortress island with much more sophisticated weapons systems than Ukraine had in 2014. A seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be a bloodbath. We haven’t seen an island invasion since WWII. Iwo Jima, Tarawa and so on were absolutely brutal. Taking a much larger island like Taiwan in the modern era would result in catastrophic losses for everyone.

I don’t think Xi is that reckless. China would become a pariah state isolated from the rest of the world. They are also completely dependent on outside sources for energy, which makes them very vulnerable to a blockade. The Chinese economy would collapse very quickly after an invasion, which would lead to an enormous amount of social unrest. And it would make the regime susceptible to a coup or a revolution.

The costs are very high for China if they choose to invade. A more likely possibility is that they use their navy to blockade Taiwan. But that also opens up a can of worms. If the US Navy chooses to break the blockade and the Chinese attack, now we are talking direct war between the US and China. Even the most insane nationalists don’t want that.

No matter how you game it out, an invasion of Taiwan will be catastrophic for China. I do believe Chinese leaders are rational. And no doubt they are aware that no one in China has experience in modern war. Which is evolving very quickly as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.[/quote]

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