China will establish a blockade around Taiwan in the near future.

The Chinese populous is 100% certain that Taiwan should be enveloped into the PRC, and that surety is not open to critical analysis.

It's similar to way Israelis believe that all Gazans age 0-99 are evil terrorists.

Anonymous wrote:That's why the genius Trump has building critical manufacturing in the USA as a priority.

Thank God

That's why genius Congress and Biden passed the Chips Act in 2022, making semiconductor investing in the USA a priority.

FTFY.

There has been a fairly peaceful status quo between China and Taiwan for more than 70 years. And Taiwan is not Crimea. It is a mountainous and heavily defended fortress island with much more sophisticated weapons systems than Ukraine had in 2014. A seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be a bloodbath. We haven’t seen an island invasion since WWII. Iwo Jima, Tarawa and so on were absolutely brutal. Taking a much larger island like Taiwan in the modern era would result in catastrophic losses for everyone.

I don’t think Xi is that reckless. China would become a pariah state isolated from the rest of the world. They are also completely dependent on outside sources for energy, which makes them very vulnerable to a blockade. The Chinese economy would collapse very quickly after an invasion, which would lead to an enormous amount of social unrest. And it would make the regime susceptible to a coup or a revolution.

The costs are very high for China if they choose to invade. A more likely possibility is that they use their navy to blockade Taiwan. But that also opens up a can of worms. If the US Navy chooses to break the blockade and the Chinese attack, now we are talking direct war between the US and China. Even the most insane nationalists don’t want that.

No matter how you game it out, an invasion of Taiwan will be catastrophic for China. I do believe Chinese leaders are rational. And no doubt they are aware that no one in China has experience in modern war. Which is evolving very quickly as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.

Anonymous wrote:Xi is not an idiot and Trump is not a warmonger. A war is very unlikely, particularly over a chip factory that will be destroyed anyway. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, conflicts between near peers in the era of drones is devastating for everyone.

The war is not over a chip factory though. China genuinely believes that Taiwan is part of China, and Taiwan genuinely believes that it isn’t. I think China would want Taiwan even if Taiwan didn’t make chips, and in fact they likely would have taken Taiwan by force already if it didn’t because Taiwan wouldn’t be as powerful and the rest of the world wouldn’t have cared as much. Just like how Russia took Crimea.

Taiwan is doomed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When China owns Taiwan, and the best source of chips, they will own the world.

LOL, attacking Taiwan would be killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

TSMC would be destroyed before the Chinese take over. There would be nothing left to own at that point.

But then the CCP would have triumphed over the KMT.

I guess? Do they care so much about that?

Anonymous wrote:I think Australia would. If not then Australia would likely be next. (Similar to European countries uniting against Russia to help Ukraine even though Ukraine wasn’t really our strong ally.) And once Australia is involved, the rest of the civilized world will likely follow. China is already out of control and having them be even more powerful is not good for the world. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Other countries will want to help to weaken and put checks on China like they’re doing with Russia. I think everyone has learned from the situation with Russia though that they need to come in hard and fight against them directly, not just fund the small country’s military and watch from the sidelines while the more powerful aggressor slowly destroys the smaller country.

Pretty sure China already has a name for Australia as a province of China. China has seen that no one has done anything with Ukraine so it feels confident harassing Taiwan. Xo is going to get tired of toying with Taiwan because at some point he will have to make good on his threat / claim on Taiwan. Otherwise, he will get the TACO label too as far as Taiwan and that won’t stand with him.

Anonymous wrote:The stock market will crater the moment China moves on Taiwan.

No. Wall Street has no regulations under Trump. It will continue till the weight of the corruption brings the crash. We are in the 1920’s in terms of the stock market- insider trading, stock manipulation, lack of transparency, etc.

Anonymous wrote:What are these acronyms?

TACO means
Trump
Always
Chickens
Out

Xi is not an idiot and Trump is not a warmonger. A war is very unlikely, particularly over a chip factory that will be destroyed anyway. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, conflicts between near peers in the era of drones is devastating for everyone.

I think Australia would. If not then Australia would likely be next. (Similar to European countries uniting against Russia to help Ukraine even though Ukraine wasn’t really our strong ally.) And once Australia is involved, the rest of the civilized world will likely follow. China is already out of control and having them be even more powerful is not good for the world. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Other countries will want to help to weaken and put checks on China like they’re doing with Russia. I think everyone has learned from the situation with Russia though that they need to come in hard and fight against them directly, not just fund the small country’s military and watch from the sidelines while the more powerful aggressor slowly destroys the smaller country.

Anonymous wrote:That's why the genius Trump has building critical manufacturing in the USA as a priority.

Thank God

And not global warming. So glad to have somebody living in reality in charge again.

That's why the genius Trump has building critical manufacturing in the USA as a priority.

Thank God

What are these acronyms?