Reply to How has Collegevine been doing?

Forum Index » College and University Discussion

Reply to "How has Collegevine been doing? "

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous]How can a prediction be “correct” or “incorrect” for a given kid when it’s framed as a percentage, not as a “yes” or “no”?

If CV gives my kid a 70% chance of admission to a school and they don’t get in, that doesn’t mean the prediction was “wrong.” It just means that they were one of the 30 out of 100 hypothetical kids—with similar stats to theirs—who historically haven’t been admitted to that school.

It’s a bummer when the odds don’t fall in your favor, but that doesn’t mean there was a problem with CV’s algorithm. Without a larger data sample, you can’t deduce anything useful about the accuracy of CV’s predictions.

Unless their given odds were 100% or 0%, my kid’s results can’t tell you anything useful about CV’s accuracy this year. Nor can that of a few dozen other random kids, applying to a bunch of different schools with wildly varying stats.

Only by comparing the ultimate results of 100 real kids to those of the hypothetical 100 kids like mine (or the statistics equivalent of that comparison) can we tell to what extent the prediction was accurate.

People need to realize that this thread is nothing more than a collection of interesting anecdata. It won’t really tell you anything meaningful about your kid’s potential results.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics