It’s been pretty accurate for my kid so far. Accepted at every EA school where CV put the odds at over 50%. Deferred at a target with 47% (UVA). I thought its predictions were optimistic so I’m pleased.

Had UPenn at 42% ED. Got in

How can a prediction be “correct” or “incorrect” for a given kid when it’s framed as a percentage, not as a “yes” or “no”?

If CV gives my kid a 70% chance of admission to a school and they don’t get in, that doesn’t mean the prediction was “wrong.” It just means that they were one of the 30 out of 100 hypothetical kids—with similar stats to theirs—who historically haven’t been admitted to that school.

It’s a bummer when the odds don’t fall in your favor, but that doesn’t mean there was a problem with CV’s algorithm. Without a larger data sample, you can’t deduce anything useful about the accuracy of CV’s predictions.

Unless their given odds were 100% or 0%, my kid’s results can’t tell you anything useful about CV’s accuracy this year. Nor can that of a few dozen other random kids, applying to a bunch of different schools with wildly varying stats.

Only by comparing the ultimate results of 100 real kids to those of the hypothetical 100 kids like mine (or the statistics equivalent of that comparison) can we tell to what extent the prediction was accurate.

People need to realize that this thread is nothing more than a collection of interesting anecdata. It won’t really tell you anything meaningful about your kid’s potential results.

So far:
Rejected at ED1 Ivy where cv prediction was 41%

In at 5 "safety" schools with cv predictions of: 81%, 88%, 93%, 98%, 98%

waiting on one safety/target with 94% prediction

In at one target with 57%

deferred at 1 target and 2 reach schools with cv predictions of 49%, 50%, 61%

waiting on 10 more reach schools with collegevine predictions ranging from 30%-50% chances.

Anonymous wrote:Does College Vine consider which major the student is applying for?

It includes the data point, but I do not think the calculated chances sufficiently account for major. You can play around with it and see the differences.

Does College Vine consider which major the student is applying for?

Private, 3.85/1570

Deferred 17% reach
Deferred 33% hard target
In 34% hard target
Deferred 36% hard target
Deferred 64% target
In 66% target
In 72% target
In 72% target
In 88% safety

Interesting. Things do not seem to be going particularly well and this agrees. Thankful that my kid has one hard target admit.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But then how is it helpful?

It’s not.

I gives you odds, how is that not helpful?

Bc they are wrong? More than they’re right?

Maybe you don’t know what odds are.

For my kid 5/5 correct including one reach deferral.

Anonymous wrote:My DD has experienced more favorable results with the calculators on College Transitions. Curious if others have used theirs as well.

I can’t figure it out ? Link?

My DD has experienced more favorable results with the calculators on College Transitions. Curious if others have used theirs as well.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But then how is it helpful?

It’s not.

I gives you odds, how is that not helpful?

Bc they are wrong? More than they’re right?

Anonymous wrote:But then how is it helpful?

It’s not.

I gives you odds, how is that not helpful?

But then how is it helpful?

It’s not.