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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]One reason I hate ED is that you feel forced into all sorts of game theory about where and whether to use it.  
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I completely agree. And yet, when there are very few seats in the class, it can be your best shot.[/quote]

+1 DC and I sat down and went through Naviance data. We learned that 50-70 kids at his school usually apply to each Ivy plus Hopkins and Georgetown. Then DC looked at SLACs, numbers much lower, 4-13 applications to each T5 there. The SLACs and HYPSM usually admit 1-2 kids per cycle. Even with the stats to compete, the odds were crazy. Cornell and Georgetown had the best odds for a top-stats kid at this school. Each admitted 13 students last year. DC thought odds of getting 1 seat out of 26 were pretty good. But after touring he preferred the SLACs, for a number of reasons. He also happened to like the one that was most popular at his school (13 applications). But historically not many ED, which he realized could give him an advantage. He did get in ED. He still had a good chance RD but why risk being 1 in 13 at that point?

I know this seems vaguely insane, and I felt that while in the middle of it, but gaming it out definitely helped. Of course the stars also basically aligned in terms of his top pick. I'm not sure what my advice would be if game theory suggests DC shouldn't apply to a school they truly love. Because you never know, and so much of admissions is arbitrary in the end. But it's a good idea to balance idealism and realistic strategy in applications when possible.[/quote]

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