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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets.  Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past.   The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly.  Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd.  Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color.   Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more.   There is a happy medium.   We have not hit it yet.  
3) Fewer police on the streets.   A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility.   If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments.   If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets.  If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County.  A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring.   I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities.    All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role?  He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures.   He has "not" supported police during his first term.  I think his tune is changing though.  George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime.  And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such.  And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe.  You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do.   But they have to be there.   I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that. [/quote]
Thank you for a thoughtful post! Why was there an increase in guns?

I can’t help but notice the vast majority of certain crimes is being committed by one demographic. In your opinion, what is causing that demographic to cause those crimes despite MoCo’s commitment to social Justice/equity/etc?[/quote]

People were so scared about the pandemic, with its social and economic disruptions, many more people bought guns.  Additionally, the Supreme Court has overturned strict concealed carry requirements, and that has resulted in another surge in gun purchases.

In terms of demographics, concentrated poverty is the primary cause of community crime.   The stuff in the streets everyone is freaking out about.    It is important to understand, though, that the vast majority of people who live in concentrated poverty are law abiding residents.   They are the ones who are most often victimized by the few ne'er-do-wells among us.      Personally, I do link concentrated poverty to structural racism in many ways.   Our laws and policies have worked for a couple of centuries to elevate and maintain power for certain people at the expense of others.

Add to that, that many Black people do not trust police or any parts of the criminal justice system.  Which is understandable.  But when this occurs, people are much more likely to turn to vigilante justice.  If the criminal justice system doesn't work for them, why bother with it?   People aren't doing drive-by shootings just to shoot.   They feel someone has aggrieved them.   So they are engaging in street justice.

I 100% agree with ensuring police are appropriately trained, that their policies and conduct are transparent to the public, and that they are held accountable when they do something wrong.    But I 100% disagree with the prevailing political climate that further demonizes police as the problem, rather than just working with them AND the community to improve police relations.   Part of that means better policing.  But part of that means better political leadership that helps increase police legitimacy in the community.    When they truly start doing that, they will see at least some violent crime start to ease.   Until then, the most vulnerable among us continue to suffer the most.[/quote]

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