Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets. Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past. The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly. Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd. Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color. Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more. There is a happy medium. We have not hit it yet.
3) Fewer police on the streets. A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility. If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments. If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets. If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County. A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring. I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities. All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role? He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures. He has "not" supported police during his first term. I think his tune is changing though. George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime. And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such. And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe. You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do. But they have to be there. I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that.

Thank you for a thoughtful post! Why was there an increase in guns?

I can’t help but notice the vast majority of certain crimes is being committed by one demographic. In your opinion, what is causing that demographic to cause those crimes despite MoCo’s commitment to social Justice/equity/etc?

People were so scared about the pandemic, with its social and economic disruptions, many more people bought guns. Additionally, the Supreme Court has overturned strict concealed carry requirements, and that has resulted in another surge in gun purchases.


In terms of demographics, concentrated poverty is the primary cause of community crime. The stuff in the streets everyone is freaking out about. It is important to understand, though, that the vast majority of people who live in concentrated poverty are law abiding residents. They are the ones who are most often victimized by the few ne'er-do-wells among us. Personally, I do link concentrated poverty to structural racism in many ways. Our laws and policies have worked for a couple of centuries to elevate and maintain power for certain people at the expense of others.

Add to that, that many Black people do not trust police or any parts of the criminal justice system. Which is understandable. But when this occurs, people are much more likely to turn to vigilante justice. If the criminal justice system doesn't work for them, why bother with it? People aren't doing drive-by shootings just to shoot. They feel someone has aggrieved them. So they are engaging in street justice.

I 100% agree with ensuring police are appropriately trained, that their policies and conduct are transparent to the public, and that they are held accountable when they do something wrong. But I 100% disagree with the prevailing political climate that further demonizes police as the problem, rather than just working with them AND the community to improve police relations. Part of that means better policing. But part of that means better political leadership that helps increase police legitimacy in the community. When they truly start doing that, they will see at least some violent crime start to ease. Until then, the most vulnerable among us continue to suffer the most.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We see the same thing playing out over all major metropolitan areas in the U.S. It's the lack of consequences due to increasing efforts to reduce sentencing for lower level crimes. It used to be play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Now the stupid prizes are less stupid...a slap on the wrist, return to custody of parents, instead of juvenile hall or incarceration for the older offenders. If someone knows all they're going to get is chewed out, that's a risk worth taking in their eyes. The whole reason why there's reduced sentencing is because of the collateral damage. Yes you get more public safety with the older, harsher policies, but a lot of people who could have been rehabilitated got lumped in with the lifers.

It's also increasingly harder for police to do their jobs. It used to be criminals were not that brazen, now they actively challenge police in routine situations because with social media they know the whole social justice piece will bail them out if things go south. There shouldn't be use of excessive force in the first place, but suspects are really aggressive now and forcing officers to choose between their own safety vs suspects, which is bad because police officers often panic and go too aggressive as well leading to a really bad outcome. There are also fewer recruits, more turnover, leading to overall loss of headcount and resources, which spreads police thin and makes it difficult to project presence. Why would someone sign up to be a police officer now when there are other jobs that don't have that much risk of going to jail.

And then there's the other piece that has led to the demise or stagnation of many historical civilizations - an increasing divide between the top 1% and bottom 30% with a hollowing out of the middle. If a large portion of the population feels they don't have anything to lose or anything to live for, they're going to take outsized risks and basically DGAF about anything, which begets the whole play stupid games behavior. Welfare, universal income, direct subsidies aren't going to solve anything because they don't teach anyone to fish or consume their time. We need stuff similar to the New Dealish CCC and WPA, but there's no economic need or political will for that.

No easy solutions to a multi-faceted problem.

I agree with you that the income inequality gap is the root cause.

Howver, the police are at the same time out of control. The amount of bad behavior, no consequences, shoot first, outright lying, and general disinterest in their actual job is troubling to say the least.

Anonymous wrote:We see the same thing playing out over all major metropolitan areas in the U.S. It's the lack of consequences due to increasing efforts to reduce sentencing for lower level crimes. It used to be play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Now the stupid prizes are less stupid...a slap on the wrist, return to custody of parents, instead of juvenile hall or incarceration for the older offenders. If someone knows all they're going to get is chewed out, that's a risk worth taking in their eyes. The whole reason why there's reduced sentencing is because of the collateral damage. Yes you get more public safety with the older, harsher policies, but a lot of people who could have been rehabilitated got lumped in with the lifers.

It's also increasingly harder for police to do their jobs. It used to be criminals were not that brazen, now they actively challenge police in routine situations because with social media they know the whole social justice piece will bail them out if things go south. There shouldn't be use of excessive force in the first place, but suspects are really aggressive now and forcing officers to choose between their own safety vs suspects, which is bad because police officers often panic and go too aggressive as well leading to a really bad outcome. There are also fewer recruits, more turnover, leading to overall loss of headcount and resources, which spreads police thin and makes it difficult to project presence. Why would someone sign up to be a police officer now when there are other jobs that don't have that much risk of going to jail.

And then there's the other piece that has led to the demise or stagnation of many historical civilizations - an increasing divide between the top 1% and bottom 30% with a hollowing out of the middle. If a large portion of the population feels they don't have anything to lose or anything to live for, they're going to take outsized risks and basically DGAF about anything, which begets the whole play stupid games behavior. Welfare, universal income, direct subsidies aren't going to solve anything because they don't teach anyone to fish or consume their time. We need stuff similar to the New Dealish CCC and WPA, but there's no economic need or political will for that.

No easy solutions to a multi-faceted problem.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Residents who never seem to bother to lock their cars, doors, or windows. Our neighbors are like this and I just don't get it, but I moved from an area with higher crime than MoCo.

That doesn't explain the huge increase in carjackings, armed robberies, and homicides.

Back a few years ago, indeed that was the big worry in our neighborhood (Bethesda) -- people breaking into unlocked cars. Now we've had armed carjackings.
https://mocoshow.com/blog/police-respond-to-armed-carjacking-in-bethesda-suspects-abandon-separate-stolen-vehicle-at-the-scene/

Cars are harder to break into and steal. So, unless a thief knows how to boost the signal from a key fob they resort to stealing cars with drivers in them who have the key fob in hand.

I think this is a quiet but significant reason for the rise in carjackings. Smart cars have made it impossible to steal without the fob.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Residents who never seem to bother to lock their cars, doors, or windows. Our neighbors are like this and I just don't get it, but I moved from an area with higher crime than MoCo.

That doesn't explain the huge increase in carjackings, armed robberies, and homicides.

Back a few years ago, indeed that was the big worry in our neighborhood (Bethesda) -- people breaking into unlocked cars. Now we've had armed carjackings.
https://mocoshow.com/blog/police-respond-to-armed-carjacking-in-bethesda-suspects-abandon-separate-stolen-vehicle-at-the-scene/

Cars are harder to break into and steal. So, unless a thief knows how to boost the signal from a key fob they resort to stealing cars with drivers in them who have the key fob in hand.

Anonymous wrote:criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets. Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past. The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly. Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd. Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color. Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more. There is a happy medium. We have not hit it yet.
3) Fewer police on the streets. A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility. If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments. If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets. If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County. A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring. I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities. All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role? He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures. He has "not" supported police during his first term. I think his tune is changing though. George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime. And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such. And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe. You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do. But they have to be there. I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

I think criminals absolutely learn that other criminals committed crimes and didn't face any real consequences when caught. And I also think they are smart enough to figure out where they're more likely to be successful. For example, why are there suddenly so many carjackings by teens in MD and DC -- it's because they understand that many such crimes have been committed and the criminals just end up back on the street (if they are caught at all).

This. They may no be reading the Post, but they do know that someone in their neighborhood committed a crime; had nothing happen; and then they learn about the level of enforcement.

The majority of criminals committing these types of crimes fall into a certain demographic, and they tend to hang around with similar people, so the information sharing is there.

My bet would be that juvenile criminals know a hell of a lot more about how policing and penalties have really changed over the last four or five years than educated middle class readers of the Washington Post do. I don’t interact with the criminal justice system, I just occasionally hear about it at second hand from reporters. People who interact with a system always know it best.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing though about police reform and progressive and “woke” policies is that (and I have no evidence of this and it’s completely my speculation) I think crime increasing is less directly in response to it, knowing the education level of most average criminals, are they really watching or reading the news? I hardly think that a gang or any random 20 year old, unemployed or underemployed poorly educated male is sitting here reading the Washington Post thinking, oh, Elrich and Jawando and Mink are elected? They’re defunding the police? Oh yeah nows my chance to go steal a car and stab somebody!

I think criminals absolutely learn that other criminals committed crimes and didn't face any real consequences when caught. And I also think they are smart enough to figure out where they're more likely to be successful. For example, why are there suddenly so many carjackings by teens in MD and DC -- it's because they understand that many such crimes have been committed and the criminals just end up back on the street (if they are caught at all).

This. They may no be reading the Post, but they do know that someone in their neighborhood committed a crime; had nothing happen; and then they learn about the level of enforcement.

The majority of criminals committing these types of crimes fall into a certain demographic, and they tend to hang around with similar people, so the information sharing is there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Residents who never seem to bother to lock their cars, doors, or windows. Our neighbors are like this and I just don't get it, but I moved from an area with higher crime than MoCo.

That doesn't explain the huge increase in carjackings, armed robberies, and homicides.

Back a few years ago, indeed that was the big worry in our neighborhood (Bethesda) -- people breaking into unlocked cars. Now we've had armed carjackings.
https://mocoshow.com/blog/police-respond-to-armed-carjacking-in-bethesda-suspects-abandon-separate-stolen-vehicle-at-the-scene/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets. Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past. The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly. Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd. Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color. Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more. There is a happy medium. We have not hit it yet.
3) Fewer police on the streets. A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility. If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments. If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets. If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County. A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring. I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities. All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role? He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures. He has "not" supported police during his first term. I think his tune is changing though. George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime. And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such. And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe. You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do. But they have to be there. I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that.

Thank you for a thoughtful post! Why was there an increase in guns?

I can’t help but notice the vast majority of certain crimes is being committed by one demographic. In your opinion, what is causing that demographic to cause those crimes despite MoCo’s commitment to social Justice/equity/etc?

Anonymous wrote:criminologist here.

Certain types of violent crime, like shootings, robberies (including carjackings), aggravated assaults have increased.

There are a variety of reasons, and it takes years to truly figure out underlying causes.

The best guesses right now are:
1) historic increase in the number of firearms on the streets. Purchases went through the roof during COVID and they get stolen faster, and therefore often used for crime more quickly, than in years past. The theory is a lot of first time firearms owners out there never secured guns properly. Many get stolen out of cars.
2) More relaxed policing since George Floyd. Many policies favor suspects in an effort to not overcriminalize people of color. Laudible, but most victims of violent crime are also people of color, and they are now getting victimized more. There is a happy medium. We have not hit it yet.
3) Fewer police on the streets. A huge portion of police were hired in the 90s when crime was at its height and they have reached retirement eligibility. If a jurisdiction doesn't make it desirable to stay, they are retiring and often moving to other more desirable jurisdictions.
4) Tons of mandated police reform changes in Maryland, including a significant weakening of juvenile justice laws, has overtaxed police departments. If they can't question juveniles about a gun store robbery, because the new state law requires that juveniles consult with attorneys before talking to police, those stolen guns just stay on the streets. If new use of force laws make it more difficult to take someone into custody and officers risk getting hurt more often, they sometimes don't follow through on the arrest, and the perpetrator is left on the streets.
5) Bleed-over of crime from DC mostly, and to some extent Prince George's County. A large portion of arrests are of people who live outside the county.

If you have seen more police presence, I assume you are talking about Silver Spring. I don't think any of the rest of the county has increased presence with 130 officers down, and many officers rejecting overtime opportunities. All the municipal police departments are understaffed too.

What is Elrich's role? He is in charge of the Executive branch, so he's ultimately responsible for all successes and all failures. He has "not" supported police during his first term. I think his tune is changing though. George Floyd's murder coincided with an extended period of very low crime. And it was easy to just see police as the biggest problem out there, and treat them as such. And many policy makers have no clue how much the presence of well-trained police officers helps keep communities safe. You need to make sure they are well trained, and act honestly and safely, and they need to be held accountable for any wrongs they do. But they have to be there. I think progressive policy makers are starting to realize that.

Anonymous wrote:
Residents who never seem to bother to lock their cars, doors, or windows. Our neighbors are like this and I just don't get it, but I moved from an area with higher crime than MoCo.