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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think the off ramp will be a limited nuclear exchange between the Russians and various other countries, including the US

I’m really starting to think nukes are gonna be used. For Putin, there’s really no reason not to at this point. He has absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. They can only hang you once. [/quote]

Why do you think the exchange will "limited"?

If Russia launches nukes, why would they launch just a few? Why not fire everything they have got?[/quote]

Honestly - because I think they only have a limited nuclear capacity at this point. A few reasons:

1) when he ordered their strategic rocket forces to high alert, that meant all their land mobile transporter-erector launchers (Russia was never big on fixed silos like we have - they keep most of their ICBM’s on mobile launchers) were sent out of their lagers and into the field. They’ve been in the field for 17 days now. Longer than they’ve ever been deployed on exercises. Looking at the breakdown rates of their other military vehicles in Ukraine (especially tires) you can assume that some of these mobile launchers have now become disabled. With the war sucking equipment and repair crews up, field maintenance is reduced. So it’s a good bet that some of their launch capability has now been lost.

2) their missile subs are being shadowed closer than ever right now by US attack subs. Most of the missile subs will never be able to get their shots off once things go nuclear, because they’ll immediately be sunk by the 2-3 US attack subs stalking them. The US subs will be trading paint with each other like a NASCAR race trying to get the first torpedo kill on a Russian sub.

3) I think a number of Russian missile crews will simply ignore their launch orders or sabotage their launch vehicles to the point that they cannot launch. What’s in it for them? They see what Putin has done, they’re not morons.

So I think a limited exchange will be all they’re capable of. 
[/quote]

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