Anonymous
03/17/2022 22:00
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:Ukraine surrendering to most of his demands… I don’t see any other, or rather, all other off ramps would be disastrous (for many more countries besides Ukraine).
I hate to say it but it’s almost like it needs to take one for the team.
With the way Biden has been managing their slow defeat, do they have any choice?
Why is he still holding up the MiG-29’s donated by Poland ? They could be using those to bomb Russians right NOW if Biden hadn’t personally stopped it.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 21:56
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Ukraine surrendering to most of his demands… I don’t see any other, or rather, all other off ramps would be disastrous (for many more countries besides Ukraine).
I hate to say it but it’s almost like it needs to take one for the team.
I hate to say it but it’s almost like it needs to take one for the team.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 21:41
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
assassination/coup is the only way out
Anonymous
03/17/2022 21:40
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I think the off ramp will be a limited nuclear exchange between the Russians and various other countries, including the US
I’m really starting to think nukes are gonna be used. For Putin, there’s really no reason not to at this point. He has absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. They can only hang you once.
Why do you think the exchange will "limited"?
If Russia launches nukes, why would they launch just a few? Why not fire everything they have got?
Honestly - because I think they only have a limited nuclear capacity at this point. A few reasons:
1) when he ordered their strategic rocket forces to high alert, that meant all their land mobile transporter-erector launchers (Russia was never big on fixed silos like we have - they keep most of their ICBM’s on mobile launchers) were sent out of their lagers and into the field. They’ve been in the field for 17 days now. Longer than they’ve ever been deployed on exercises. Looking at the breakdown rates of their other military vehicles in Ukraine (especially tires) you can assume that some of these mobile launchers have now become disabled. With the war sucking equipment and repair crews up, field maintenance is reduced. So it’s a good bet that some of their launch capability has now been lost.
2) their missile subs are being shadowed closer than ever right now by US attack subs. Most of the missile subs will never be able to get their shots off once things go nuclear, because they’ll immediately be sunk by the 2-3 US attack subs stalking them. The US subs will be trading paint with each other like a NASCAR race trying to get the first torpedo kill on a Russian sub.
3) I think a number of Russian missile crews will simply ignore their launch orders or sabotage their launch vehicles to the point that they cannot launch. What’s in it for them? They see what Putin has done, they’re not morons.
So I think a limited exchange will be all they’re capable of.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 21:37
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Putin's off ramp is that he has immunity from war crimes prosecution as long as he's head of state. Charles Taylor set the precedent there. It wasn't until he lost power that he was able to be arrested, extradited and tried. It will also be exceedingly difficult to gather enough evidence to prove his personal guilt. That becomes even harder after the "cleansing".
If he leaves Ukraine and takes the loss then he still survives. Most of his misbegotten wealth is in Russia. He lives to fight another day and can blame everything on corruption, incompetemce or an intelligence failure. All he has to do is purge his top brass and manufacture some show trials. He can still blame NATO for the looming economic disasters and gets to crackdown on the oligarchs himself. It'd suck for the Russians but Putin would be fine.
If he leaves Ukraine and takes the loss then he still survives. Most of his misbegotten wealth is in Russia. He lives to fight another day and can blame everything on corruption, incompetemce or an intelligence failure. All he has to do is purge his top brass and manufacture some show trials. He can still blame NATO for the looming economic disasters and gets to crackdown on the oligarchs himself. It'd suck for the Russians but Putin would be fine.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 21:03
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:I think the off ramp will be a limited nuclear exchange between the Russians and various other countries, including the US
I’m really starting to think nukes are gonna be used. For Putin, there’s really no reason not to at this point. He has absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. They can only hang you once.
Why do you think the exchange will "limited"?
If Russia launches nukes, why would they launch just a few? Why not fire everything they have got?
Anonymous
03/17/2022 20:56
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
I think the off ramp will be a limited nuclear exchange between the Russians and various other countries, including the US
I’m really starting to think nukes are gonna be used. For Putin, there’s really no reason not to at this point. He has absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. They can only hang you once.
I’m really starting to think nukes are gonna be used. For Putin, there’s really no reason not to at this point. He has absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. They can only hang you once.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 20:11
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Partially about Ukraine, but also just holding on to power inside Russia. The guy needs an off ramp. That might be good for all of us. What are some available off ramps that could clam this down?
The only possible off-ramp that I can picture is a deal in which Ukraine agrees to remain outside of NATO. However, after the last 3 miserable weeks, Ukraine will never agree to cease all military cooperation with the West. If they remain outside of NATO, they will wish to retain the freedom to stiffen their defense capabilities via assistance from the West.
So Putin's off-ramp wouldn't lead to a weak, isolated Ukraine. But with the magic of his propaganda machine, perhaps Putin could convince Russian citizens that Russia scored a great victory.
Can't they promise and then change their mind? Like the promise they got from Russia to be safe when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.
So yeah, Ukraine, just make that promise.
Good point. They can be a part of NEW-TO. Not NATO, but a new treaty organization. With all the same peeps.
Ukraine could also enter into bilateral or multilateral security agreements with other countries. For example, a security alliance between US and Ukraine. Or a former Soviet states alliance with Poland, Czech, Slovakia, the Baltics, etc. That would almost be like a backdoor into NATO - if Russia attacked Ukraine again, it would bring in other NATO members (but not all). It’s a sly diplomatic maneuver.
I think the Ukraine-Poland-Czechia-Slovakia military alliance is already starting to form.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 20:09
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Partially about Ukraine, but also just holding on to power inside Russia. The guy needs an off ramp. That might be good for all of us. What are some available off ramps that could clam this down?
The only possible off-ramp that I can picture is a deal in which Ukraine agrees to remain outside of NATO. However, after the last 3 miserable weeks, Ukraine will never agree to cease all military cooperation with the West. If they remain outside of NATO, they will wish to retain the freedom to stiffen their defense capabilities via assistance from the West.
So Putin's off-ramp wouldn't lead to a weak, isolated Ukraine. But with the magic of his propaganda machine, perhaps Putin could convince Russian citizens that Russia scored a great victory.
Can't they promise and then change their mind? Like the promise they got from Russia to be safe when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.
So yeah, Ukraine, just make that promise.
Ukraine could also enter into bilateral or multilateral security agreements with other countries. For example, a security alliance between US and Ukraine. Or a former Soviet states alliance with Poland, Czech, Slovakia, the Baltics, etc. That would almost be like a backdoor into NATO - if Russia attacked Ukraine again, it would bring in other NATO members (but not all). It’s a sly diplomatic maneuver.
Good point. They can be a part of NEW-TO. Not NATO, but a new treaty organization. With all the same peeps.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 20:09
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Partially about Ukraine, but also just holding on to power inside Russia. The guy needs an off ramp. That might be good for all of us. What are some available off ramps that could clam this down?
The only possible off-ramp that I can picture is a deal in which Ukraine agrees to remain outside of NATO. However, after the last 3 miserable weeks, Ukraine will never agree to cease all military cooperation with the West. If they remain outside of NATO, they will wish to retain the freedom to stiffen their defense capabilities via assistance from the West.
So Putin's off-ramp wouldn't lead to a weak, isolated Ukraine. But with the magic of his propaganda machine, perhaps Putin could convince Russian citizens that Russia scored a great victory.
Can't they promise and then change their mind? Like the promise they got from Russia to be safe when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.
So yeah, Ukraine, just make that promise.
Good point. They can be a part of NEW-TO. Not NATO, but a new treaty organization. With all the same peeps.
Ukraine could also enter into bilateral or multilateral security agreements with other countries. For example, a security alliance between US and Ukraine. Or a former Soviet states alliance with Poland, Czech, Slovakia, the Baltics, etc. That would almost be like a backdoor into NATO - if Russia attacked Ukraine again, it would bring in other NATO members (but not all). It’s a sly diplomatic maneuver.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 19:21
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Partially about Ukraine, but also just holding on to power inside Russia. The guy needs an off ramp. That might be good for all of us. What are some available off ramps that could clam this down?
The only possible off-ramp that I can picture is a deal in which Ukraine agrees to remain outside of NATO. However, after the last 3 miserable weeks, Ukraine will never agree to cease all military cooperation with the West. If they remain outside of NATO, they will wish to retain the freedom to stiffen their defense capabilities via assistance from the West.
So Putin's off-ramp wouldn't lead to a weak, isolated Ukraine. But with the magic of his propaganda machine, perhaps Putin could convince Russian citizens that Russia scored a great victory.
Can't they promise and then change their mind? Like the promise they got from Russia to be safe when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.
So yeah, Ukraine, just make that promise.
Ukraine could also enter into bilateral or multilateral security agreements with other countries. For example, a security alliance between US and Ukraine. Or a former Soviet states alliance with Poland, Czech, Slovakia, the Baltics, etc. That would almost be like a backdoor into NATO - if Russia attacked Ukraine again, it would bring in other NATO members (but not all). It’s a sly diplomatic maneuver.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 19:20
Subject: What is Putin's off ramp?
Fiona Hill has suggested the end will be incremental, which I think is the correct read. Putin will camp out in Ukraine, maybe not moving ahead anymore, but treading water where he is for months (or longer). Then he waits and changes the topic in Russia. Russian public shifts focus and everyone just moves on. Then Russia backs out of Ukraine slowly. Zelensky needs to let him go quietly.
Anonymous
03/17/2022 19:12
Subject: Re:What is Putin's off ramp?
I hope his off ramp is a bullet to the back of his head.