Reply to Will competition for admission decrease for kids born in 2008 +?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I am on the board of a very small college in the midwest. We have seen our freshman class rise from 880 in the early 2000s to 1400 this year.  We are planning it to stager and then drop off. We hope not back to 900...we would love for it to stay around 1050/1100 by 2030.  My point is if my little itty bitty home town college knows its coming I am sure the big schools have a huge plan in action for it too.  We have also finished all our new buildings for the foreseeable future...we got caught up in a cycle where every 5 years we open the newest and greatest XZY center and we aren't going to swim in that pool anymore.  One thing we are worried about is potentially having empty dorms so we are looking at incising upperclassman to stay on campus when the population drops off. [/quote]

I was a Gen X/baby bust student.  My school had a couple of empty dorms.  They were refurbished and opened when the current crop hit campus. [/quote]

Yup. I was born in 1974, which I believe I’ve read was the absolute nadir in number of births in the U.S. When I was growing up, elementary schools were closing. In my big, populous county, a large high school had 2000 kids, which is the norm now. And the acceptance rate at the top-25 school I attended was higher my HS graduation year (1992) than it has been in the last 30 years.

It’s also well-covered that Gen X is much, much smaller than the Boomers or Millenial generations. So it makes sense that Gen Z, composed mostly of the children of Gen X, is also smaller. I would assume the result of this population bust will be lots of smaller schools closing and top 100 schools becoming less selective. Then, when the Millenials’ kids come of age, demand at top 100 will go nuts again, but the relief valves of smaller schools won’t be there. So predators (like for-profit schools) will fill the demand, leaving large numbers of students with crazy debt.

Lather, rinse, repeat.[/quote]

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