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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Dems are outperforming Biden's 2020 result because of Dobbs.

Biden and the Dems will continue to outperform 2020 because of abortion.[/quote]

so true.  the number of 2020 voters that are going to now switch to trump after he destroyed Roe and instigated a coup is probably zero.[/quote]

How do you explain all the polls showing solid Turnip leads in the swing states and Turnip leading Biden where at this point in 2020 Biden led Turnip by 6.3% average?

Mildly curious.[/quote]

The polls are over-weighting Republicans and sampling according to past turn-out models for demographics.

The issue is that the people actually showing up to vote since the SC's Dobbs ruling are NOT the same as people who turned out to vote in 2020-2012 elections that underlie the turn-out models for poll sampling. 2022 saw some backlash for the GOP, but the backlash is getting worse now that the draconian laws have taken hold in the past year. For example, Florida's crazy strict 6 week abortion ban just went into effect - the backlash in Florida is just beginning. So what happens? Previous turn-out models that underlie poll sampling for Florida likely will not be right, since the Dobbs ruling brings out all sorts of non-voting individuals to actually come out and vote.[/quote]

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