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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.[/quote]

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive. [/quote]

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?[/quote]

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour[/quote]

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.[/quote]

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops.  Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans.  Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts.  It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation.  They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard.  However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial.  Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse.  Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership.  In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable.  The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained.  I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like.  Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.[/quote]

PP, thanks for sharing here. So if I infer correctly, you are saying that running out of fuel/supplies is inevitable in Crimea? [b]That ferries and one lane will not be sufficient to get through the winter?[/b] That would be my guess, but love to hear it confirmed from folks who know better.

Yes, I also thought that 300K sounded formidable, but then the photos of some of the conscripts persuaded me to the contrary. My guess is that the US calling up 300K reservists might yield similar results. My very fit middle school PE teacher was a reservist along with her boyfriend, but many of the reservists I knew as a kid were not. It was, as it was for my MS PE teacher, all about a legal paycheck.

the landmine explosion is just stunning - [b]better to be blown to bits by the enemy, then shot in the back by one of your own?[/b][/quote]

BRIDGE

I believe the repair of the rail is far more important than the road.  Russia claimed that freight rail traffic was already restored.  This is confusing since the satellite photos clearly showed repair cars on either side of the damage, as well as many repair workers with orange vests.  
https://www.wsj.com/video/repairs-under-way-on-crimea-bridge-as-trucks-wait-for-days-to-leave/F6787D4A-E0A9-44DE-972F-97DFB696AC85.html

I don't know the actual bridge capacity, but I can guess.  My guess is that the rail was impacted and may not shipping freight, or if it is, at a greatly diminished capacity.

The Russian Ural military truck typically carries up to 4.2 tons or 24 troops.  In the U.S. the Average 70-car freight hauls 3,000 tons.  That averages about 43 trips by truck for every freight car.  3,000 tons translates into 714 Ural truckloads.  Let's say the Russian train only had 10 cars of passengers, of 40 troops per car (400 troops).  Moving 100,000 troops would be 250 train trips, or 4,167 Russian Ural truck trips (in other words, you're at about 6% of your prior transport efficiency).  Add to that the loss of ground traffic, and the efficiency is even less.

Although it's just a guess, the public satellite photos seem to confirm this may be not a completely unreasonable guess.

"the current wait time for a cargo truck awaiting a ferry is three to four days."
"Other photos show several hundred cargo trucks parked at an abandoned airport nearby, also waiting to be ferried to Russia"
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/13/photo-cargo-truck-crimea-bridge-explosion

Remember that the ferry is not just transporting Russian military supplies, but it's also transporting everything the Crimean civilian population needs to survive.  A three or four day wait would generally impact frozen or refrigerated item transport unless they were queued first.  What I can also guess is that if even one of those ferries needs maintenance, especially in winter, would be a problem for both Russian forces trying to resupply and the population in Crimea.

To get the exact number, I don't know how many train trips were before and after.  To get the exact number of what supplies are getting through on the one lane, someone would need to calculate the number of heavy trucks that traversed the bridge before the explosion in a 7 day period (as an average) as well as the number of trains and train cars in the same timeframe.  Calculate out the tonnage carried, then subtract the number of trucks ferried in 7 days.   That would be the before-and-after difference.  That level of detail is something that I couldn't find on the web.    :(

TANK MINE
Hard to say.  Could've been tired and didn't see it (tank vision blocks aren't full vision, it looked like he was pulling up from the ditch onto the road?).  Could've been suicide.  Could've just been untrained and didn't know an antitank mine from a box of tissues.  Regardless, there seem to be many more stories like this being reported.[/quote]

All I know is, speaking as a former ordnance tech, that truck park is BEGGING for an MLRS barrage or airstrike with CBU’s. All those targets, all clustered together like that…. just begging for it.

The Russians are tactically stupid AND lazy to stage vehicles like that. No wonder they’re getting their asses handed to them. [/quote]

The storage site is out of range of HIMARS and the US has resisted requests for ATACMS. The only option would be an adapted Poseidon but escalation with an attack on Russian soil would not be welcomed by the US. [/quote]

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