It’s interesting Russian security services allege the truck bomb circumnavigated the Black Sea from Ukraine through Bulgaria, Armenia and Georgia and make no mention of Turkey. Curious omission.

"A 60-year-old Russian woman has been tossed in jail for visiting the gravesite of Vladimir Putin’s parents and leaving a note expressing her desire for him to join them in the earth. Amazingly, Irina Tsybanyeva is not the first Russian citizen to take her grievances straight to the Russian leader’s eternally resting parents, but she appears to be the first to be snatched up by police as a result."
https://www.thedailybeast.com/60-year-old-russian-woman-jailed-for-leaving-disparaging-note-about-vladimir-putin-at-his-parents-grave

"Loud explosions heard in Russia's Belgorod near Ukrainian border, reports of attack on airport"
"the attack might have been directed at Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile batteries that are thought to have shot down two Ukrainian warplanes recently."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/loud-explosions-heard-russias-belgorod-131900769.html

"The convicts were brought to us from a prison. They were led somewhere further forward. And we are here like barrier troops: if someone runs back, we take them out. This is how it is done here: that is, we are the second line here, guarding the first one, and there is a line behind us, too. You can’t run there either. It’s impossible to escape – our own guys will shoot us..."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/impossible-escape-own-guys-shoot-071611253.html

"Reports have started to emerge that enlisted convicts have begun to desert from Putin's army. Moreover, they seem to have taken their weapons with them and formed armed gangs, which are now roaming through Russia."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1683489/russia-news-putin-wagner-convicts-desert-army-ukraine-war

"Military commissar Lt. Col. Roman Malyk, in charge of Vladimir Putin's military mobilisation effort in Ukraine was found dead under "suspicious" circumstances, reports claimed."
"died from hanging"
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/russiaukraine-war-vladimir-putin-news-vladimir-putin-s-head-of-ukraine-mobilisation-dies-in-possible-suicide-report-101665911040682.html

"invaders and collaborators of Enerhodar are sending children to the Russian Federation"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-abducting-children-occupied-enerhodar-150900553.html

“Another 76 orphans were taken to social rehabilitation centers for minors in Russia, in the Moscow region"
"another 104 children who are under the guardianship of social institutions in the “Luhansk People’s Republic”"
"In early September, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia had deported more than 7,000 Ukrainian children to their country. So far, Kyiv has managed to return only 51 minors."
https://english.nv.ua/amp/russians-continue-to-kidnap-orphaned-children-from-luhansk-oblast-50273992.html

"Vladimir Putin is set to purge the top ranks of his Kremlin elite"
" The move is allegedly an attempt to stave off a possible coup by disgruntled members of the Russian President's inner circle."
"There have been repeated rumours that support for Putin's war among those closest to the President has been on the wane, particularly amongst Russia's generals."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1683455/putin-news-kremlin-elite-purge-coup-russia-ukraine-war-latest

Anonymous wrote:I suspect the sabateurs would have preferred the detonation to occur on the apex of the bridge where it is supported by the arch trusses. This would have had the additional benefits of being more difficult to repair and potentially blocking the navigable shipping lanes. Perhaps a delay in the tracking/transponder signal? Either way it was a colossal security failure.

I’m not unduly empathetic when it comes to a Russian delivering material to a theater of war and more specifically territory unlawfully annexed by Putin in 2014. We haven’t heard anything about the two occupants of the passenger car presumed killed as seen on video at the time of the explosion.

Regardless the Russians had to shut down the Kerch Strait ferry services yesterday through at least Tuesday due to weather conditions. The alternative overland route to Crimea is a 600 mile round trip. Not ideal from a logistical standpoint when supplying a military during an active kinetic operation as well as a civilian population.

One of my major faults/weaknesses is I can't disentangle the micro from the macro. Have no idea of the life of a Russian national of Azerbaijani descent - may have deplored the war and Putin - so I can't just dismiss all that as "part of the struggle" as there is a family that remains behind, etc. My guess is that the 6 AM explosion was not part of a deliberate plan to minimize civilian injuries but just the luck of the schedule.

OTOH, I completely agree with you. Anything to muck up the Russian military, especially as they move towards winter, is great news, really great.

I suspect the sabateurs would have preferred the detonation to occur on the apex of the bridge where it is supported by the arch trusses. This would have had the additional benefits of being more difficult to repair and potentially blocking the navigable shipping lanes. Perhaps a delay in the tracking/transponder signal? Either way it was a colossal security failure.

I’m not unduly empathetic when it comes to a Russian delivering material to a theater of war and more specifically territory unlawfully annexed by Putin in 2014. We haven’t heard anything about the two occupants of the passenger car presumed killed as seen on video at the time of the explosion.

Regardless the Russians had to shut down the Kerch Strait ferry services yesterday through at least Tuesday due to weather conditions. The alternative overland route to Crimea is a 600 mile round trip. Not ideal from a logistical standpoint when supplying a military during an active kinetic operation as well as a civilian population.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took another look at the bridge videos.

There appears to be a primary blast at 2, splash of water at 4 sec, then possibly secondary blasts at 5, 7 sec? That could explain differences in scorch marks and twisted metal?

If you look at the positioning of the boat versus the truck, the boat is on the wrong side of the bridge pylon. Also look at the direction of the sparks. The wind seems to be blowing hard, so tracing back the smoke and flames, it's clear where the explosion originated from. From this angle, the explosion does line up with the large truck, but it does not match the other video taken from behind at road-level. In the other video, the puff of expanding air seemed to be radiating horizontally, and wasn't in line with the large truck. It was lower.

But that's when I remembered something about the way digital cameras work. they write horizontally line-by-line starting at the top from left to right, I believe.

Depending on the timing, the camera could have just finished capturing the truck image as the explosion happened, so then only captured the lower part of the photo. That means it's more likely that it was a truck bomb.

This does not discount that the bridge could have been rigged in advance, or something else from beneath or on the side of the bridge exploded. It may also have been a missile impact ex. aiming for the train, but locked onto the bridge instead? That shouldn't be possible though. The Russian air defense around that bridge should be pretty good.

1. truckbomb
2. pre-rigged explosive
3. missile

So if a truck bomb, did the driver know? If not, then how did they pull that off?

The working theory appears to be neither the driver, who was a Russian national from Azerbaijan, nor his nephew, who owned the truck, were aware that the trailer contained explosive device. There reportedly is some evidence of an internet transaction to pickup and deliver a trailer with fertilizer (ammonium nitrate). The device presumably was detonated remotely in some fashion. The Russians now claim the trailer was transshipped from Odesa through Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia with a load of polyethylene construction wrapping but have offered an x-ray image of what is indisputably a different truck and trailer.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-attack-theories

Thanks for sharing. If this is the case, then feel terrible for the driver and family, as much as destroying that bridge is a good tactic in this war.

They must've had a tracker on it as the timing could not have been more precise.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took another look at the bridge videos.

There appears to be a primary blast at 2, splash of water at 4 sec, then possibly secondary blasts at 5, 7 sec? That could explain differences in scorch marks and twisted metal?

If you look at the positioning of the boat versus the truck, the boat is on the wrong side of the bridge pylon. Also look at the direction of the sparks. The wind seems to be blowing hard, so tracing back the smoke and flames, it's clear where the explosion originated from. From this angle, the explosion does line up with the large truck, but it does not match the other video taken from behind at road-level. In the other video, the puff of expanding air seemed to be radiating horizontally, and wasn't in line with the large truck. It was lower.

But that's when I remembered something about the way digital cameras work. they write horizontally line-by-line starting at the top from left to right, I believe.

Depending on the timing, the camera could have just finished capturing the truck image as the explosion happened, so then only captured the lower part of the photo. That means it's more likely that it was a truck bomb.

This does not discount that the bridge could have been rigged in advance, or something else from beneath or on the side of the bridge exploded. It may also have been a missile impact ex. aiming for the train, but locked onto the bridge instead? That shouldn't be possible though. The Russian air defense around that bridge should be pretty good.

1. truckbomb
2. pre-rigged explosive
3. missile

So if a truck bomb, did the driver know? If not, then how did they pull that off?

The working theory appears to be neither the driver, who was a Russian national from Azerbaijan, nor his nephew, who owned the truck, were aware that the trailer contained explosive device. There reportedly is some evidence of an internet transaction to pickup and deliver a trailer with fertilizer (ammonium nitrate). The device presumably was detonated remotely in some fashion. The Russians now claim the trailer was transshipped from Odesa through Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia with a load of polyethylene construction wrapping but have offered an x-ray image of what is indisputably a different truck and trailer.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-attack-theories

Anonymous wrote:I took another look at the bridge videos.

There appears to be a primary blast at 2, splash of water at 4 sec, then possibly secondary blasts at 5, 7 sec? That could explain differences in scorch marks and twisted metal?

If you look at the positioning of the boat versus the truck, the boat is on the wrong side of the bridge pylon. Also look at the direction of the sparks. The wind seems to be blowing hard, so tracing back the smoke and flames, it's clear where the explosion originated from. From this angle, the explosion does line up with the large truck, but it does not match the other video taken from behind at road-level. In the other video, the puff of expanding air seemed to be radiating horizontally, and wasn't in line with the large truck. It was lower.

But that's when I remembered something about the way digital cameras work. they write horizontally line-by-line starting at the top from left to right, I believe.

Depending on the timing, the camera could have just finished capturing the truck image as the explosion happened, so then only captured the lower part of the photo. That means it's more likely that it was a truck bomb.

This does not discount that the bridge could have been rigged in advance, or something else from beneath or on the side of the bridge exploded. It may also have been a missile impact ex. aiming for the train, but locked onto the bridge instead? That shouldn't be possible though. The Russian air defense around that bridge should be pretty good.

1. truckbomb
2. pre-rigged explosive
3. missile

So if a truck bomb, did the driver know? If not, then how did they pull that off?

"Russians increasing military contingent in occupied Severodonetsk"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-increasing-military-contingent-occupied-205100738.html

"The blast on the Crimean Bridge further lowered the morale of the Z-Universe: "It is no longer clear who is leading the special operation: is it still Russia or is it already Ukraine?" wrote one channel."
"However, it’s worth remembering that none of these people are expressing their personal opinions. They all have a patron at the top of the Kremlin hierarchy. The patron of both Kadyrov and Prigozhin is widely considered to be the head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov."
"Unexpectedly, it appears some Kremlin officials also joined the attack on Shoigu. The rumor is that anonymous Telegram channel Nezygar expresses the views of the presidential administration."
"He has called the Russian military command “idiots” and dubbed Shoigu a "Cardboard Marshal." It’s believed Strelkov is a spokesman for the FSB leadership and nationalist army officers."
"None of the siloviki — the Defense Ministry, the FSB, the Russian National Guard — have their eye on the Kremlin throne for themselves."
"All this points to what historian Timothy Snyder considers the most likely end to the war. Though events are unlikely to lead to civil war and armed clashes inside Russia, the logic of a serious power struggle will force major players to pull as many combat-ready units out of Ukraine as possible and bring them closer to home."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/13/reading-the-tea-leaves-of-russias-pro-war-z-universe-a79078

"The men interviewed by The Moscow Times said they were promised a monthly salary of about 200,000 rubles ($3,365) if they signed a contract to join the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine – but that they would have to buy all their gear themselves. “A Level 4 combat vest — which can stop pistol and rifle rounds as well as shrapnel — costs on average 70,000 rubles ($1,200). A helmet is another 10,000 rubles ($160). Decent boots are about 5,000 rubles ($80), and you really need two pairs. A tactical vest costs from 5,000 to 10,000 rubles ($80-160). And you also have to buy a jacket, pants, T-shirts and pullovers. That comes out to about 200,000 rubles ($3,365),” said the Rosgvardia serviceman. A Russian soldier in a military unit near the Ural mountains told The Moscow Times that almost no equipment was provided for those heading to Ukraine. “We have to buy everything ourselves, with our own money. I'm not even talking about modern body armor and helmets: there are no warm clothes, no dry rations or first-aid kits,” he said. “All the equipment we are fighting with in Ukraine stinks of mothballs, and the weapons jam.”"
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/20/we-have-to-buy-everything-ourselves-how-russian-soldiers-go-off-to-fight-a77751

"Around 10,000 Russian prisoners, including a convicted cannibal, have been recruited by Wagner"
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/13/russian-lawmakers-propose-offering-prisoners-amnesty-for-enlisting-a79079

"A group of servicemen of the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade — a military unit from the Siberian republic of Buryatia deployed in Ukraine since the early days of Russia’s invasion — put in their resignations earlier this month. But their request met with resistance from the military authorities."
“There were 78 [objectors] at first, but after several rounds of coercion the military command was able to bring that number to a minimum"
"After refusing to accept resignation requests, the brigade’s command divided the objectors into small groups of eight and ten men and sent them to a special detention facility in the Russia-occupied eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk"
“kept locked up in a garage” and “fed some gruel once a day ” before been sent to a detention center.
"Last week, the Free Buryatia Foundation announced that 150 soldiers from the Siberian republic who refused deployment in Ukraine returned home from the frontlines."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russian-authorities-detain-threaten-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine-a78326

"Military and law enforcement officials in Moscow and St. Petersburg on Friday were seen inspecting the identity papers of passers-by around the entrance to metro stations and handing out draft notices to eligible men in the hallways of apartment buildings"
""These actions do more harm than Ukrainian propaganda…it is hard to even imagine the moral and socio-political consequences of such actions,""
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/14/outrage-as-russian-military-recruiters-resort-to-rounding-up-conscripts-a79092

"Two men fired at soldiers on a Russian military firing range near Ukraine on Saturday, killing 11 and wounding 15 before being slain themselves, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The ministry said in a statement that the shooting took place in the Belgorod region in southwestern Russia that borders Ukraine. It said two men from an unnamed former Soviet republic fired on volunteer soldiers during target practice and were killed by return fire."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-military-range-shooting-leaves-193107841.html

"we know that Russian nuclear units train extensively at this time of year," Kirby said, adding the United States would "monitor that accordingly."
https://news.yahoo.com/drill-upcoming-russian-nuclear-exercises-221657011.html

"President Vladimir Putin’s massive military mobilization and escalating talk of nuclear weapons in the protracted Ukraine conflict are rattling many Russians, including urban elites for whom the war had seemed far in the background. The WhatsApp messaging group for residents of a stately post-World War II apartment building on a major thoroughfare in downtown Moscow, viewed by The Wall Street Journal, is peppered with messages of concern: “Is the bomb shelter in the basement still habitable?”; “Who do we need to contact to get it inspected?”; “Where are the entrances located?”"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/public-sentiment-in-russia-darkens-over-ukraine-war-11665826202

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops. Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans. Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts. It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation. They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard. However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial. Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse. Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership. In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable. The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained. I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like. Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.

PP, thanks for sharing here. So if I infer correctly, you are saying that running out of fuel/supplies is inevitable in Crimea? That ferries and one lane will not be sufficient to get through the winter? That would be my guess, but love to hear it confirmed from folks who know better.

Yes, I also thought that 300K sounded formidable, but then the photos of some of the conscripts persuaded me to the contrary. My guess is that the US calling up 300K reservists might yield similar results. My very fit middle school PE teacher was a reservist along with her boyfriend, but many of the reservists I knew as a kid were not. It was, as it was for my MS PE teacher, all about a legal paycheck.

the landmine explosion is just stunning - better to be blown to bits by the enemy, then shot in the back by one of your own?

BRIDGE

I believe the repair of the rail is far more important than the road. Russia claimed that freight rail traffic was already restored. This is confusing since the satellite photos clearly showed repair cars on either side of the damage, as well as many repair workers with orange vests.
https://www.wsj.com/video/repairs-under-way-on-crimea-bridge-as-trucks-wait-for-days-to-leave/F6787D4A-E0A9-44DE-972F-97DFB696AC85.html

I don't know the actual bridge capacity, but I can guess. My guess is that the rail was impacted and may not shipping freight, or if it is, at a greatly diminished capacity.

The Russian Ural military truck typically carries up to 4.2 tons or 24 troops. In the U.S. the Average 70-car freight hauls 3,000 tons. That averages about 43 trips by truck for every freight car. 3,000 tons translates into 714 Ural truckloads. Let's say the Russian train only had 10 cars of passengers, of 40 troops per car (400 troops). Moving 100,000 troops would be 250 train trips, or 4,167 Russian Ural truck trips (in other words, you're at about 6% of your prior transport efficiency). Add to that the loss of ground traffic, and the efficiency is even less.

Although it's just a guess, the public satellite photos seem to confirm this may be not a completely unreasonable guess.

"the current wait time for a cargo truck awaiting a ferry is three to four days."
"Other photos show several hundred cargo trucks parked at an abandoned airport nearby, also waiting to be ferried to Russia"
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/13/photo-cargo-truck-crimea-bridge-explosion

Remember that the ferry is not just transporting Russian military supplies, but it's also transporting everything the Crimean civilian population needs to survive. A three or four day wait would generally impact frozen or refrigerated item transport unless they were queued first. What I can also guess is that if even one of those ferries needs maintenance, especially in winter, would be a problem for both Russian forces trying to resupply and the population in Crimea.

To get the exact number, I don't know how many train trips were before and after. To get the exact number of what supplies are getting through on the one lane, someone would need to calculate the number of heavy trucks that traversed the bridge before the explosion in a 7 day period (as an average) as well as the number of trains and train cars in the same timeframe. Calculate out the tonnage carried, then subtract the number of trucks ferried in 7 days. That would be the before-and-after difference. That level of detail is something that I couldn't find on the web.

TANK MINE
Hard to say. Could've been tired and didn't see it (tank vision blocks aren't full vision, it looked like he was pulling up from the ditch onto the road?). Could've been suicide. Could've just been untrained and didn't know an antitank mine from a box of tissues. Regardless, there seem to be many more stories like this being reported.

All I know is, speaking as a former ordnance tech, that truck park is BEGGING for an MLRS barrage or airstrike with CBU’s. All those targets, all clustered together like that…. just begging for it.

The Russians are tactically stupid AND lazy to stage vehicles like that. No wonder they’re getting their asses handed to them.

The storage site is out of range of HIMARS and the US has resisted requests for ATACMS. The only option would be an adapted Poseidon but escalation with an attack on Russian soil would not be welcomed by the US.

DP. If it's true that the Russians are recalling veterans familiar with Ukraine back to fight, the U.S. may want to reconsider. Unless Ukraine is permitted to hit the rail feeding the Russian offensive, they may be subject to attacks from multiple fronts not just from the East, but Belarus or even Moldova as well.

Ukraine has put up a good fight so far, but without the ability to knock out supplies on multiple fronts simultaneously, they are still vulnerable.

Is there a possibility of Russian escalation? I would counter that it's also possible that the Russian appetite for sausage-making is not what it was before. If the Russians understand that they cannot win in Ukraine on a military level, then they also might reconsider the consequences of nuclear brinkmanship. Let's face it, if just one country is giving them this much trouble and they don't have allies rushing in to help, the World can be a very lonely place.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops. Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans. Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts. It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation. They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard. However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial. Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse. Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership. In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable. The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained. I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like. Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.

PP, thanks for sharing here. So if I infer correctly, you are saying that running out of fuel/supplies is inevitable in Crimea? That ferries and one lane will not be sufficient to get through the winter? That would be my guess, but love to hear it confirmed from folks who know better.

Yes, I also thought that 300K sounded formidable, but then the photos of some of the conscripts persuaded me to the contrary. My guess is that the US calling up 300K reservists might yield similar results. My very fit middle school PE teacher was a reservist along with her boyfriend, but many of the reservists I knew as a kid were not. It was, as it was for my MS PE teacher, all about a legal paycheck.

the landmine explosion is just stunning - better to be blown to bits by the enemy, then shot in the back by one of your own?

BRIDGE

I believe the repair of the rail is far more important than the road. Russia claimed that freight rail traffic was already restored. This is confusing since the satellite photos clearly showed repair cars on either side of the damage, as well as many repair workers with orange vests.
https://www.wsj.com/video/repairs-under-way-on-crimea-bridge-as-trucks-wait-for-days-to-leave/F6787D4A-E0A9-44DE-972F-97DFB696AC85.html

I don't know the actual bridge capacity, but I can guess. My guess is that the rail was impacted and may not shipping freight, or if it is, at a greatly diminished capacity.

The Russian Ural military truck typically carries up to 4.2 tons or 24 troops. In the U.S. the Average 70-car freight hauls 3,000 tons. That averages about 43 trips by truck for every freight car. 3,000 tons translates into 714 Ural truckloads. Let's say the Russian train only had 10 cars of passengers, of 40 troops per car (400 troops). Moving 100,000 troops would be 250 train trips, or 4,167 Russian Ural truck trips (in other words, you're at about 6% of your prior transport efficiency). Add to that the loss of ground traffic, and the efficiency is even less.

Although it's just a guess, the public satellite photos seem to confirm this may be not a completely unreasonable guess.

"the current wait time for a cargo truck awaiting a ferry is three to four days."
"Other photos show several hundred cargo trucks parked at an abandoned airport nearby, also waiting to be ferried to Russia"
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/13/photo-cargo-truck-crimea-bridge-explosion

Remember that the ferry is not just transporting Russian military supplies, but it's also transporting everything the Crimean civilian population needs to survive. A three or four day wait would generally impact frozen or refrigerated item transport unless they were queued first. What I can also guess is that if even one of those ferries needs maintenance, especially in winter, would be a problem for both Russian forces trying to resupply and the population in Crimea.

To get the exact number, I don't know how many train trips were before and after. To get the exact number of what supplies are getting through on the one lane, someone would need to calculate the number of heavy trucks that traversed the bridge before the explosion in a 7 day period (as an average) as well as the number of trains and train cars in the same timeframe. Calculate out the tonnage carried, then subtract the number of trucks ferried in 7 days. That would be the before-and-after difference. That level of detail is something that I couldn't find on the web.

TANK MINE
Hard to say. Could've been tired and didn't see it (tank vision blocks aren't full vision, it looked like he was pulling up from the ditch onto the road?). Could've been suicide. Could've just been untrained and didn't know an antitank mine from a box of tissues. Regardless, there seem to be many more stories like this being reported.

All I know is, speaking as a former ordnance tech, that truck park is BEGGING for an MLRS barrage or airstrike with CBU’s. All those targets, all clustered together like that…. just begging for it.

The Russians are tactically stupid AND lazy to stage vehicles like that. No wonder they’re getting their asses handed to them.

The storage site is out of range of HIMARS and the US has resisted requests for ATACMS. The only option would be an adapted Poseidon but escalation with an attack on Russian soil would not be welcomed by the US.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I want to hear more about "severe rationing" that's claimed here.

It appears the rationing order was rescinded due to an “error.” There is supposed to be a 49 day supply of petrol as of five days ago, as if there is somewhere to which to drive.

In other words, whoever posted that severe rationing was imposed on civilians has lied?

Take it up with media reporting pronouncements by the Russian goon squad leader. You’re welcome.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/crimean-occupation-government-introduces-rationing-cancels-it-in-an-hour

No, it's much funner taking it up with a moron mindlessly posting whatever she finds without a modicum of critical thinking to see if it's true.

Let me add to your humor then.

"Russian fuel shipments to troops fighting in Ukraine last month hit the highest level since the invasion began."
"A report from Bloomberg said Wednesday fuel deliveries to troops reached nearly 220,000 tons in September."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-fuel-shipments-troops-fighting-170154531.html

Conventional wisdom says this is the fuel necessary to support 300,000 new troops. Even if this was fuel meant for a new push deep into Ukraine, I think the Kerch Bridge damage may have changed those plans. Stockpiling fuel could also be due to the Ukrainian military's effectiveness at cutting off and destroying Russian resupply efforts. It now takes much more fuel to transport supplies by truck further from the front lines than it did a few months ago (although that distance is shrinking with all the recent Ukrainian territorial gains).

"Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

My guess is this could be disinformation. They may wish to conduct a Winter counter-offensive to catch the Ukrainian's off-guard. However, if the bridge is out for at least 60-days, I think it's immaterial. Whether Crimea has 8 or 48 days of fuel won't change the necessity for Russian troops to retreat once they run out of fuel and ammunition and panic en masse. Since Russia is pulling out the senior FSB officials, it is more likely their defense will collapse once the line troops realize the people shooting deserters in the back are without leadership. In the meantime, Russia will likely attempt to transport as much fuel by truck and ferry to stockpile as much supplies as possible.

300,000 thousand conscripts does sound formidable. The game changer here is that the 300,000 new troops aren't trained. I suspect the Russian soldier that drove his armored vehicle directly into an anti-tank mine laid out of the road was either a completely exhausted veteran or a completely untrained conscript who couldn't even recognize what an anti-tank mine looked like. Many of the well-rested veteran Russian troops are in Crimea, who may not be getting sufficient supplies over the winter months.

Things look grim for Russia in Ukraine right now.

PP, thanks for sharing here. So if I infer correctly, you are saying that running out of fuel/supplies is inevitable in Crimea? That ferries and one lane will not be sufficient to get through the winter? That would be my guess, but love to hear it confirmed from folks who know better.

Yes, I also thought that 300K sounded formidable, but then the photos of some of the conscripts persuaded me to the contrary. My guess is that the US calling up 300K reservists might yield similar results. My very fit middle school PE teacher was a reservist along with her boyfriend, but many of the reservists I knew as a kid were not. It was, as it was for my MS PE teacher, all about a legal paycheck.

the landmine explosion is just stunning - better to be blown to bits by the enemy, then shot in the back by one of your own?

BRIDGE

I believe the repair of the rail is far more important than the road. Russia claimed that freight rail traffic was already restored. This is confusing since the satellite photos clearly showed repair cars on either side of the damage, as well as many repair workers with orange vests.
https://www.wsj.com/video/repairs-under-way-on-crimea-bridge-as-trucks-wait-for-days-to-leave/F6787D4A-E0A9-44DE-972F-97DFB696AC85.html

I don't know the actual bridge capacity, but I can guess. My guess is that the rail was impacted and may not shipping freight, or if it is, at a greatly diminished capacity.

The Russian Ural military truck typically carries up to 4.2 tons or 24 troops. In the U.S. the Average 70-car freight hauls 3,000 tons. That averages about 43 trips by truck for every freight car. 3,000 tons translates into 714 Ural truckloads. Let's say the Russian train only had 10 cars of passengers, of 40 troops per car (400 troops). Moving 100,000 troops would be 250 train trips, or 4,167 Russian Ural truck trips (in other words, you're at about 6% of your prior transport efficiency). Add to that the loss of ground traffic, and the efficiency is even less.

Although it's just a guess, the public satellite photos seem to confirm this may be not a completely unreasonable guess.

"the current wait time for a cargo truck awaiting a ferry is three to four days."
"Other photos show several hundred cargo trucks parked at an abandoned airport nearby, also waiting to be ferried to Russia"
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/13/photo-cargo-truck-crimea-bridge-explosion

Remember that the ferry is not just transporting Russian military supplies, but it's also transporting everything the Crimean civilian population needs to survive. A three or four day wait would generally impact frozen or refrigerated item transport unless they were queued first. What I can also guess is that if even one of those ferries needs maintenance, especially in winter, would be a problem for both Russian forces trying to resupply and the population in Crimea.

To get the exact number, I don't know how many train trips were before and after. To get the exact number of what supplies are getting through on the one lane, someone would need to calculate the number of heavy trucks that traversed the bridge before the explosion in a 7 day period (as an average) as well as the number of trains and train cars in the same timeframe. Calculate out the tonnage carried, then subtract the number of trucks ferried in 7 days. That would be the before-and-after difference. That level of detail is something that I couldn't find on the web.

TANK MINE
Hard to say. Could've been tired and didn't see it (tank vision blocks aren't full vision, it looked like he was pulling up from the ditch onto the road?). Could've been suicide. Could've just been untrained and didn't know an antitank mine from a box of tissues. Regardless, there seem to be many more stories like this being reported.

All I know is, speaking as a former ordnance tech, that truck park is BEGGING for an MLRS barrage or airstrike with CBU’s. All those targets, all clustered together like that…. just begging for it.

The Russians are tactically stupid AND lazy to stage vehicles like that. No wonder they’re getting their asses handed to them.

I took another look at the bridge videos.

There appears to be a primary blast at 2, splash of water at 4 sec, then possibly secondary blasts at 5, 7 sec? That could explain differences in scorch marks and twisted metal?

If you look at the positioning of the boat versus the truck, the boat is on the wrong side of the bridge pylon. Also look at the direction of the sparks. The wind seems to be blowing hard, so tracing back the smoke and flames, it's clear where the explosion originated from. From this angle, the explosion does line up with the large truck, but it does not match the other video taken from behind at road-level. In the other video, the puff of expanding air seemed to be radiating horizontally, and wasn't in line with the large truck. It was lower.

But that's when I remembered something about the way digital cameras work. they write horizontally line-by-line starting at the top from left to right, I believe.

Depending on the timing, the camera could have just finished capturing the truck image as the explosion happened, so then only captured the lower part of the photo. That means it's more likely that it was a truck bomb.

This does not discount that the bridge could have been rigged in advance, or something else from beneath or on the side of the bridge exploded. It may also have been a missile impact ex. aiming for the train, but locked onto the bridge instead? That shouldn't be possible though. The Russian air defense around that bridge should be pretty good.

1. truckbomb
2. pre-rigged explosive
3. missile

"Wagner mercenary, FSB officer seeking asylum in France"
"in recent months, several other Russian intelligence officers have been able to leave Russia, seek asylum"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-mercenary-fsb-officer-seeking-083200634.html

Remember that this is a death sentence move in the eyes of the Russian FSB.

"hit 4 command posts, 15 areas where Russian manpower, weapons and military equipment were concentrated"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-hit-4-040205218.html

"Due to the low quality of medical care and the reluctance of the Russian command to evacuate the seriously wounded to Russia, the mortality rate among the latter exceeds 50%."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mortality-rate-wounded-russian-soldiers-045841122.html

"The queue in Vasylivka checkpoint has begun to grow since 27 September. There were 1,200 cars with 6,000 residents. Currently, there are over 1,000 cars with over 4,000 civilians inside. The queue has decreased not because the people were allowed to pass, but because people could not wait."
"Fedorov reminded the press that earlier, over 1,000 residents from all temporarily occupied territories: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts, could leave across the demarcation line in Vasylivka settlement on a daily basis."
"Currently, there is no such possibility, because the occupiers only let 20 to 30 cars out."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-not-let-people-zaporizhzhia-142608766.html

"the Kremlin-picked leader of the Kherson province is urging civilians to “take your children and leave’’ for Russia"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-hammers-kyiv-region-iranian-134059779.html

It is clear that the train damage, attacks upon ammunition and fuels are a definite turning point. Russia would never negotiate for a cease fire unless it was to their strategic advantage since it would be an embarrassing sign of weakness.

"Advanced units of the 488th Motorised Rifle Division (military unit 12721, PPD - Klyntsy, Bryansk region) of the 144th Motorised Rifle Division of the Russian Federation are trying to hold the line of occupation in the Kreminna of Luhansk Oblast"
"in just two days, on October 11-12, these advanced positions were deserted by 27 soldiers who laid down their arms and refused to obey the orders of their command.""
"22 of the soldiers were arrested and taken into custody, and 5, successfully intimidated, returned to their positions"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-30-occupiers-lay-down-114800451.html

My guess is the Russian military is trying to buy time to prevent a complete collapse of their forces in Ukraine before they can mount a counteroffensive. If this next report is accurate, this is bad news for Ukraine. It means that Russia has a trained veteran force already familiar with Ukraine preparing to reengage.

"The Russian Federation has prepared a mobilisation resource of about 2 million people."
"Naiev explained that many of those mobilised were recently released from military service and have participated in military training."
"Regarding the 300,000 mobilised announced by Russia" "They can form more than 3 army corps, 4 divisions, 10 regiment-level organisational structures, 10 motorised rifle divisions of territorial troops and up to 3-4 brigades of territorial troops. In other words, it is a very powerful force, but it takes time to prepare"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-federation-2-million-mobilised-213333735.html

Russia would likely use the new conscripts to keep the Ukraine military occupied, while they prepare a veteran force to launch a new counteroffensive. Ukraine's best tactic would be to complete their advances to at least cut off Russian logistics routes, then dig in defensively, reinforce, then strategically intercept trains and logistics sites deeper into Russian territory to prevent these veteran troops from deploying. The West would need to ensure Ukraine has at least sufficient long-range artillery, anti-tank weapons, and long-range anti-air missiles to defend itself.

Another question is the extent that Russia could adequately arm this force with weapons and supply them logistically. Russia does have them, but would have to pull from units across Russia, lowering their overall readiness and capabilities. There is also a question how many aircraft, tanks, weapons are not obsolete. Pulling 60+ Vietnam-era T-72 tanks from Belarus is an example.

This cannibalization of equipment would also make Russia exceptionally vulnerable to ground-based invasion. Not really a concern for Russia unless the Chinese decide it's a good time to increase their leg-room (an unlikely scenario at this time, but if they subscribe to Putin's Golden Billion theory at some point, the Russian military should be concerned). Weakening of border defenses across Russia could also provide an opening for former Soviet satellite countries to exercise more freedom of movement and increase the chance of internal security issues.

Anonymous wrote:Expert explaining evidence of truck bomb

https://mobile.twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1580202182397558785

Not sure I agree. I'm not a demolitions expert, but the video analysis does not correspond to the theories proposed.

1. The frame-by-frame footage exactly before the flash clearly indicated the expansion of air was seen with both trucks still in the frame. The large truck was too far away from the air expansion and if it was the second truck, it should have been contorted by the rapid expansion of air / fireball, and it was too high up on the cab anyway.
2. Move forward frame-by-frame from that moment. the fireball seemed to travel from the right edge of the bridge towards the left. That is inconsistent with a truck bomb.
3. The twisted metal photo doesn't necessarily support his conclusion. Yes, the blast bent metal, but it's unclear whether the bent metal above the bridge was damaged greater than below the bridge, or which blast sequence (train or bridge) bent the metal.

Expert explaining evidence of truck bomb

https://mobile.twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1580202182397558785