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[quote=Anonymous]"Wagner mercenary, FSB officer seeking asylum in France"
"in recent months, several other Russian intelligence officers have been able to leave Russia, seek asylum"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-mercenary-fsb-officer-seeking-083200634.html

Remember that this is a death sentence move in the eyes of the Russian FSB.

"hit 4 command posts, 15 areas where Russian manpower, weapons and military equipment were concentrated"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-hit-4-040205218.html

"Due to the low quality of medical care and the reluctance of the Russian command to evacuate the seriously wounded to Russia, the mortality rate among the latter exceeds 50%."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mortality-rate-wounded-russian-soldiers-045841122.html

"The queue in Vasylivka checkpoint has begun to grow since 27 September. There were 1,200 cars with 6,000 residents. Currently, there are over 1,000 cars with over 4,000 civilians inside. The queue has decreased not because the people were allowed to pass, but because people could not wait."
"Fedorov reminded the press that earlier, over 1,000 residents from all temporarily occupied territories: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts, could leave across the demarcation line in Vasylivka settlement on a daily basis."
"Currently, there is no such possibility, because the occupiers only let 20 to 30 cars out."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-not-let-people-zaporizhzhia-142608766.html

"the Kremlin-picked leader of the Kherson province is urging civilians to “take your children and leave’’ for Russia"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-hammers-kyiv-region-iranian-134059779.html

It is clear that the train damage, attacks upon ammunition and fuels are a definite turning point.  Russia would never negotiate for a cease fire unless it was to their strategic advantage since it would be an embarrassing sign of weakness.

"Advanced units of the 488th Motorised Rifle Division (military unit 12721, PPD - Klyntsy, Bryansk region) of the 144th Motorised Rifle Division of the Russian Federation are trying to hold the line of occupation in the Kreminna of Luhansk Oblast"
"in just two days, on October 11-12, these advanced positions were deserted by 27 soldiers who laid down their arms and refused to obey the orders of their command.""
"22 of the soldiers were arrested and taken into custody, and 5, successfully intimidated, returned to their positions"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-30-occupiers-lay-down-114800451.html

My guess is the Russian military is trying to buy time to prevent a complete collapse of their forces in Ukraine before they can mount a counteroffensive.  If this next report is accurate, this is bad news for Ukraine.  It means that Russia has a trained veteran force already familiar with Ukraine preparing to reengage.

"The Russian Federation has prepared a mobilisation resource of about 2 million people."
"Naiev explained that many of those mobilised were recently released from military service and have participated in military training."
"Regarding the 300,000 mobilised announced by Russia" "They can form more than 3 army corps, 4 divisions, 10 regiment-level organisational structures, 10 motorised rifle divisions of territorial troops and up to 3-4 brigades of territorial troops. In other words, it is a very powerful force, but it takes time to prepare"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-federation-2-million-mobilised-213333735.html

Russia would likely use the new conscripts to keep the Ukraine military occupied, while they prepare a veteran force to launch a new counteroffensive.  Ukraine's best tactic would be to complete their advances to at least cut off Russian logistics routes, then dig in defensively, reinforce, then strategically intercept trains and logistics sites deeper into Russian territory to prevent these veteran troops from deploying.  The West would need to ensure Ukraine has at least sufficient long-range artillery, anti-tank weapons, and long-range anti-air missiles to defend itself.

Another question is the extent that Russia could adequately arm this force with weapons and supply them logistically.  Russia does have them, but would have to pull from units across Russia, lowering their overall readiness and capabilities.  There is also a question how many aircraft, tanks, weapons are not obsolete.  Pulling 60+ Vietnam-era T-72 tanks from Belarus is an example.

This cannibalization of equipment would also make Russia exceptionally vulnerable to ground-based invasion.  Not really a concern for Russia unless the Chinese decide it's a good time to increase their leg-room (an unlikely scenario at this time, but if they subscribe to Putin's Golden Billion theory at some point, the Russian military should be concerned).  Weakening of border defenses across Russia could also provide an opening for former Soviet satellite countries to exercise more freedom of movement and increase the chance of internal security issues.[/quote]

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