Reply to MCPS Officially announces schools opening as planned

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Don't have time to read through it all after all the other related threads.  If they are keeping the 5% unrelated positive rate rule, and if some aren't testing or reporting, then they need to ask an epidemiologist and a statistician to quickly come up with a proxy for the 5% based only on those that DO report so that the system can't be gamed to keep a school open when it shouldn't be (or game the system the other way, either).[/quote]

Statistician here. Testing needs to be mandatory. Sample is currently biased. Either get fully vaccinated or do on-site testing weekly. Those are the choices in most of corporate america now; not sure why it cannot happen in schools. [/quote]

First, thanks.  It's good to have the thoughts of a professional.

Could do with mandatory testing, but that appears infeasible from both a logistical/capacity angle or a political palatability angle.  The thought was that with the expertise of an epidemiologist to help set the asumptions about biases in the reported data (e.g., those more willing to report may be X more or less likely to represent a lower-positive portion of the population, some other assumption about the representativeness of those having to report due to a positive test, etc.) and a statistician such as yourself to adjust for these, accordingly, we might be able to get readings within a reasonable confidence interval for each school that would proxy for the 5%.

If that could be done, then those who did not want to have their kids tested wouldn't be limiting the effectiveness if the measure.  Right now, the plea to sign up, which almost certainly is falling on deaf ears at this point, clearly indicates that they don't have enough in compliance to evidence the true positivity rate to make the 5% rubric work for public safety.[/quote]

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