Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don't have time to read through it all after all the other related threads. If they are keeping the 5% unrelated positive rate rule, and if some aren't testing or reporting, then they need to ask an epidemiologist and a statistician to quickly come up with a proxy for the 5% based only on those that DO report so that the system can't be gamed to keep a school open when it shouldn't be (or game the system the other way, either).

Statistician here. Testing needs to be mandatory. Sample is currently biased. Either get fully vaccinated or do on-site testing weekly. Those are the choices in most of corporate america now; not sure why it cannot happen in schools.

First, thanks. It's good to have the thoughts of a professional.

Could do with mandatory testing, but that appears infeasible from both a logistical/capacity angle or a political palatability angle. The thought was that with the expertise of an epidemiologist to help set the asumptions about biases in the reported data (e.g., those more willing to report may be X more or less likely to represent a lower-positive portion of the population, some other assumption about the representativeness of those having to report due to a positive test, etc.) and a statistician such as yourself to adjust for these, accordingly, we might be able to get readings within a reasonable confidence interval for each school that would proxy for the 5%.

If that could be done, then those who did not want to have their kids tested wouldn't be limiting the effectiveness if the measure. Right now, the plea to sign up, which almost certainly is falling on deaf ears at this point, clearly indicates that they don't have enough in compliance to evidence the true positivity rate to make the 5% rubric work for public safety.

SIAP but are there requirements to test after traveling?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Not happening, lady.

I bet you a million pretend dollars that by Thursday Jan 16th, more than 50% of all MCPC middle schools and high schools are moved to virtual learning. Can't be quite so sure about elementary schools.

Why do you think school transmission will be higher than community transmission? Community transmission is nowhere near 5 percent. Why, contrary to all evidence, do you think that schools are a magical place where Covid spreads more quickly and efficiently than anywhere else?

Oh I don’t know, do you think maybe members of the community are not spending time indoors for 6.5 hours a day with a minimum of 25 other people from 25 different households, plus eating lunch with dozens of other people indoors every day of the week? Is your child eating lunch in a big crowded restaurant every day during winter break? Pretty sure flu and strep and lice have always spread more quickly and commonly in congregate settings like school.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Not happening, lady.

We are continuing to monitor cases on a daily basis. As we shared earlier, if 5 percent or more of unrelated students/teachers/staff (minimum of 10 of these individuals) tests positive in a 14-day period, a determination will be made as to whether the school should be closed for 14 calendar days and transition to virtual instruction. Please note that the 5 percent threshold does not automatically result in school closure; the primary factor to consider will be the level of the spread of the virus in the school.

Is Montgomery County some magical place where the omicron variant just doesn't spread person to person the way it has been doing Every. Where. Else?

+100 wave and nod boys

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Not happening, lady.

I bet you a million pretend dollars that by Thursday Jan 16th, more than 50% of all MCPC middle schools and high schools are moved to virtual learning. Can't be quite so sure about elementary schools.

Why do you think school transmission will be higher than community transmission? Community transmission is nowhere near 5 percent. Why, contrary to all evidence, do you think that schools are a magical place where Covid spreads more quickly and efficiently than anywhere else?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:On a day that we had the most number of cases reported in the county ever -- over 2,000.

Should be an interesting ride.

Lol cry about it !!!! Hahahaha

+1 million. Boo hoo.

OP here. I guess you took my post opposite of what I meant. I am just here to observe and LOL. I pulled my kids out and into private long ago.

Enjoy your sociopathy.

Then, why start drama? Its best for all of us your kids are no longer in MCPS as well.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Not happening, lady.

I bet you a million pretend dollars that by Thursday Jan 16th, more than 50% of all MCPC middle schools and high schools are moved to virtual learning. Can't be quite so sure about elementary schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:On a day that we had the most number of cases reported in the county ever -- over 2,000.

Should be an interesting ride.

Lol cry about it !!!! Hahahaha

+1 million. Boo hoo.

OP here. I guess you took my post opposite of what I meant. I am just here to observe and LOL. I pulled my kids out and into private long ago.

Enjoy your sociopathy.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Not happening, lady.

We are continuing to monitor cases on a daily basis. As we shared earlier, if 5 percent or more of unrelated students/teachers/staff (minimum of 10 of these individuals) tests positive in a 14-day period, a determination will be made as to whether the school should be closed for 14 calendar days and transition to virtual instruction. Please note that the 5 percent threshold does not automatically result in school closure; the primary factor to consider will be the level of the spread of the virus in the school.

Is Montgomery County some magical place where the omicron variant just doesn't spread person to person the way it has been doing Every. Where. Else?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:On a day that we had the most number of cases reported in the county ever -- over 2,000.

Should be an interesting ride.

Lol cry about it !!!! Hahahaha

+1 million. Boo hoo.

OP here. I guess you took my post opposite of what I meant. I am just here to observe and LOL. I pulled my kids out and into private long ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:On a day that we had the most number of cases reported in the county ever -- over 2,000.

Should be an interesting ride.

Lol cry about it !!!! Hahahaha

+1 million. Boo hoo.

Anonymous wrote:Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Not happening, lady.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the schools open when community spread is so high and just after people get back from holiday travel and gatherings, couldn’t this lead to staffing issues and temporary closings as more students, teachers and staff test positive and get sick? I am looking at the same data that has been posted, along with the regional and Baltimore area hospital alerts. I’m not sure so many people getting ill so quickly is a good idea. The denominator is huge, even if severity for vaccinated/boostered is lower.

Just today, I talked to two local businesses with half their staff out sick. Obviously, I don’t want schools to close, but it seems they could quickly reach the metric for closing. I would be curious if the health department predicted odds and timing on that scenario.

Wouldn't it be great if parents volunteered to fill in.

Parents wanted no virtual, MCPS promised that and is now honoring their promise.

No, we will Let those who are paid and chose the profession of teaching to teach.

Each school will just *individually* shut down, not the whole school district.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:schools - which are essential - should be the last to shut down to in-person.

non-essential businesses should be the first to close.

the public should be irate if schools shut down before non-essential businesses.

It's OK.

Schools, non-essential businesses and even essential businesses are probably going to shut down due to lack of staff within the next three to four weeks, but it won't be forever. Just until staff get better!

I doubt it. MCPS has been clear they will not shut down except if Hogan shuts them down.

Oh, they will shut down when they don't have the staff to safely operate.