Reply to ISO Link to Middle School Boundary Map

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[quote=Anonymous]the argument is that there won't be room at Deal, and since these schools are further from Deal and closer to other middle schools, they'll be the ones to get shifted out.  DCPS and DME have been willing to cut out schools that provide more diverse boundaries (see: Crestwood and SE/SW from Wilson) so it certainly could happen.

But it doesn't have to happen. http://www.21csf.org/csf-home/datashop.asp shows the capacities of various schools. Deal has a capacity of 964 kids, or 321 for each of its 3 grades.

Assuming Shepherd and Bancroft have 8 grades and Janney, Murch, Lafayette, and Hearst have 7, and that school enrollment is equally distributed among grades (not perfect assumptions but let's go with them) the 5th grade at each school will have the following number of kids:

Shepherd: 40
Bancroft: 64
Janney: 99
Murch: 89
Lafayette: 100
Hearst: 42

The total is 434.  But that assumes they all go to Deal, and they don't.  Some go to DCI, Latin, BASIS, private schools, or their families move.  Of course, some move into the Deal boundary too, or they live IB, went to OOB/private/charter elementaries, and now want to attend Deal.  Let's assume the push and pull factors are a wash and 434 kids each year go to Deal, for a total enrollment of 1302.  That sounds like a lot and it is above the school's listed capacity, but the school currently has 1312 kids.  So it is completely possible to keep things the way they are.  Another way to reduce enrollment without changing feeder patterns is to eliminate the rule that once you're in an elementary school from OOB, you have a right to attend its destination middle school.  It's hard to estimate how many kids that could affect in 2022.  Right now, 53% of Bancroft kids are IB, but 87% at Lafayette and 94% at Janney.

A lot will depend on the demograpics and politics of 2022.[/quote]

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