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Reply to "Predictions for what happens when the SC bans affirmative action?"
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[quote=Anonymous]What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist. 1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something. 2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian. 3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs. 4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM. 5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling. 6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will. What do you think?[/quote]
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