Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

LOL. Schools are currently looking for ways to admit full-pay African-Americans. That is the perfect candidate for elite schools. They will not turn around admit FA whites in their place, that doesn't add anything on either front. If anything they will prefer full-pay whites. SES is kryptonite for colleges.

Anonymous wrote:white people will turn on Asians when their kids continue to get rejected. They’ll need a new scapegoat

THIS!!!

Emphasis on SES

Anonymous wrote:What will be interesting is how it plays out in private day schools. At our non-DMV school, URM is a big boost in college admissions. If you're black and top 10%, you get to choose between HYPS. Top 20-30% URM go to lower ivies. This is a school where we send 5% of the class to Ivies, so it's no Sidwell. At least 50% of the URM kids live in the same neighborhoods as other students with parents who are doctors, lawyers, etc. I just can't see how they're getting in still if colleges actually don't use AA. Outside of URMs, nobody gets into ivies outside the top 10% except the occasional kid to Cornell ED.

I’m assuming URMs attending private day schools have high stats themselves

1. Holistic admissions remains and testing stuff gets squishier
2. Continued emphasis on first gen
3. Top schools will figure out how to take close to as many URMs as they do today. They have zipcode data and other metrics.
4. Nobody leaves the Ivies

In other words, is not as dramatic as people think it will be.

Only point 1 is true, colleges will literally incinerate all the standards that they formerly had to try to continue their practice of soft racial quotas. The consequences of that are hard to predict.

Anonymous wrote:white people will turn on Asians when their kids continue to get rejected. They’ll need a new scapegoat

Yes, this is what I'm saying. They will send Larla to Chapel Hill (but be mad about it).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

Admissions offices at elite schools are filled with people more like the ones in charge of admissions at UC than the ones in charge of admission at UT. I don't see your scenario as plausible. Maybe for MIT or something.

In what way?

I think that MIT which has bucked the test optional trend, is less likely than the Ivies to seek a way to protect the diversity of their classes.

white people will turn on Asians when their kids continue to get rejected. They’ll need a new scapegoat

Anonymous wrote:I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

Admissions offices at elite schools are filled with people more like the ones in charge of admissions at UC than the ones in charge of admission at UT. I don't see your scenario as plausible. Maybe for MIT or something.

What will be interesting is how it plays out in private day schools. At our non-DMV school, URM is a big boost in college admissions. If you're black and top 10%, you get to choose between HYPS. Top 20-30% URM go to lower ivies. This is a school where we send 5% of the class to Ivies, so it's no Sidwell. At least 50% of the URM kids live in the same neighborhoods as other students with parents who are doctors, lawyers, etc. I just can't see how they're getting in still if colleges actually don't use AA. Outside of URMs, nobody gets into ivies outside the top 10% except the occasional kid to Cornell ED.

Geographic diversity, zip code, parental occupation & family HHI will become very important

I think it will vary. Some schools will be happy to just enroll the best students and other will drop aa in favor of economic diversity

I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist.

1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something.

2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian.

3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs.

4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM.

5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling.

6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will.

What do you think?