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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Thank you.  Based on this, I identified the original research referred to in the story:  http://as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/marriagedivides.pdf

Unfortunately I am not really comforted by it.  First, the study still predicts 58% support for prop 8.  That's not great.  Second, the evidence used to contradict the exit poll is not better exit poll data.  They are making statistical inferences on the behavior of black voters in precincts based on the overall vote totals in that precinct.  Check out Figure 2, and you will see that this is far from a slam dunk conclusion.  And even this study concludes: "Nevertheless, the analysis here indicates that those hoping to advance the cause of same?sex marriage must contend with a substantial gap in support between Latinos and whites on one hand and African Americans on the other—a divide that has only increased since the nation’s attention turned in earnest to the issue in 2003."

And there is truth in that last statement.  I wish it were not true, but it is.  [b]There is a gap between the positions of black and white Americans on this issue, [/b]and if it is more like 60% or 70% it's still a big deal.[/quote]

Have you read this article? http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2009/01/prop-8-and-blaming-the-blacks/6548/

A big problem this country has is that people are prone to attribute everything to race and race alone. The problem has more to do with religion than race. That should be the focus instead of skin color.

Also, the big focus is black vs everyone else. While black support for prop 8 was estimated at 58%, Latino support was estimated at 59%. The Latino population in CA is also much larger than the black population in CA. Why is this getting thrown in the shadows?[/quote]

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