DCUM Forum

Anonymous

05/10/2012 15:51 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

Frankly, I find the black community's staunch and undying support for "traditional marriage" just a teensy bit hypocritical.

Anonymous

05/10/2012 15:48 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

Funny, the Post story is a reaction to the gay marriage thing from lots of different people, not just black people. OP's subject line doesn't give that impression at all.

Anonymous

05/10/2012 15:41 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

Anonymous wrote:
Thank you. Based on this, I identified the original research referred to in the story: http://as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/marriagedivides.pdf

Unfortunately I am not really comforted by it. First, the study still predicts 58% support for prop 8. That's not great. Second, the evidence used to contradict the exit poll is not better exit poll data. They are making statistical inferences on the behavior of black voters in precincts based on the overall vote totals in that precinct. Check out Figure 2, and you will see that this is far from a slam dunk conclusion. And even this study concludes: "Nevertheless, the analysis here indicates that those hoping to advance the cause of same?sex marriage must contend with a substantial gap in support between Latinos and whites on one hand and African Americans on the other—a divide that has only increased since the nation’s attention turned in earnest to the issue in 2003."

And there is truth in that last statement. I wish it were not true, but it is. There is a gap between the positions of black and white Americans on this issue, and if it is more like 60% or 70% it's still a big deal.

Have you read this article? http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2009/01/prop-8-and-blaming-the-blacks/6548/

A big problem this country has is that people are prone to attribute everything to race and race alone. The problem has more to do with religion than race. That should be the focus instead of skin color.

Also, the big focus is black vs everyone else. While black support for prop 8 was estimated at 58%, Latino support was estimated at 59%. The Latino population in CA is also much larger than the black population in CA. Why is this getting thrown in the shadows?

Anonymous

05/10/2012 15:13 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
But yes, if the gay marriage bill is defeated in MD, black will be blamed for it, even if they're not to blame. Just like in Cali.

I had not heard about the prop 8 data being wrong. Can you link to correct data?

I can and I'm very happy to do so. Also, I'd like to point out that black people make up a little more than 6 percent of California's population, so the blame they received for the passage of Prop 8 was both laughable and predictable.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/06/BANB154OS1.DTL

Also, here's an article from 2008, when it was still thought that 70% of black voters in CA supported Prop 8. The writer made a very interesting point, although one that most people ignored in favor of blaming black people.

Some conservative commentators, who didn’t have much else to gloat about, dwelt lingeringly on what they evidently regarded as the upside of the huge, Obama-sparked African-American turnout. “It was the black vote that voted down gay marriage,” Bill O’Reilly, of Fox News, insisted triumphantly—and, it turns out, wrongly. If exit polling is to be believed, seventy per cent of California’s African-American voters did indeed vote yes on Prop. 8, as did upward of eighty per cent of Republicans, conservatives, white evangelicals, and weekly churchgoers. But the initiative would have passed, barely, even if not a single African-American had shown up at the polls.

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/12/01/081201taco_talk_hertzberg?printable=true#ixzz1uU12iBzv

Again, religiosity, not race.

Thank you. Based on this, I identified the original research referred to in the story: http://as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4819/marriagedivides.pdf

Unfortunately I am not really comforted by it. First, the study still predicts 58% support for prop 8. That's not great. Second, the evidence used to contradict the exit poll is not better exit poll data. They are making statistical inferences on the behavior of black voters in precincts based on the overall vote totals in that precinct. Check out Figure 2, and you will see that this is far from a slam dunk conclusion. And even this study concludes: "Nevertheless, the analysis here indicates that those hoping to advance the cause of same?sex marriage must contend with a substantial gap in support between Latinos and whites on one hand and African Americans on the other—a divide that has only increased since the nation’s attention turned in earnest to the issue in 2003."

And there is truth in that last statement. I wish it were not true, but it is. There is a gap between the positions of black and white Americans on this issue, and if it is more like 60% or 70% it's still a big deal.

Anonymous

05/10/2012 12:32 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

Anonymous wrote:
I had not heard about the prop 8 data being wrong. Can you link to correct data?

Here's more information.

1. The study with the correct data
http://www.thetaskforce.org/downloads/issues/egan_sherrill_prop8_1_6_09.pdf

2. This article by Ta-Nehisi Coates, where he makes the following interesting points:

1.) The 70 percent figure for black support of Prop 8 is wildly overblown, and in conflict with all the other polling done. The study concludes that 58 percent is a more likely number. To put that in context, the study also concludes that 59 percent of Latinos supported prop 8. That isn't one-up-manship--it just means we were about the same.

2.) Black people almost certainly did not account for 10 percent of the voters on Prop 8, they accounted for seven percent

3.) 58 percent is still higher than the 52 percent for the state, as a whole, but that difference is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that no ethnic group in California is as religiously devout as (as measured by church attendance) African-Americans.

4.) Among those who attended church weekly, African-American support for Prop 8 was lower than amongst any other ethnic group.

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2009/01/prop-8-and-blaming-the-blacks/6548/

Anonymous

05/10/2012 12:20 Subject: Re:Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

PP, I think I recognize you from another thread.

To be clear, you think the only people who post racist or prejudiced things on this forum are people who are not from the DC area?

Anonymous

05/10/2012 12:18 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

The premise of this thread "black people will do ______ " is so stupid and typical of all the DCUM transplants on this site who are always saying "white people ____ but black people ____ ."

Please stop. It's insensitive

(unless you are a black person making fun of white people, then it's funny - yes, brad or chad, the double standard works in this case).

Sincerely,

A white person from the DC area. and a republican (eat it!)

Anonymous

05/10/2012 12:03 Subject: Blacks will defeat gay marriage bill in Maryland

Anonymous wrote:
I had not heard about the prop 8 data being wrong. Can you link to correct data?

I screwed up the quoting, so a repost:

I can and I'm very happy to do so. Also, I'd like to point out that black people make up a little more than 6 percent of California's population, so the blame they received for the passage of Prop 8 was both laughable and predictable.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/06/BANB154OS1.DTL

Also, here's an article from 2008, when it was still thought that 70% of black voters in CA supported Prop 8. The writer made a very interesting point, although one that most people ignored in favor of blaming black people.

Some conservative commentators, who didn’t have much else to gloat about, dwelt lingeringly on what they evidently regarded as the upside of the huge, Obama-sparked African-American turnout. “It was the black vote that voted down gay marriage,” Bill O’Reilly, of Fox News, insisted triumphantly—and, it turns out, wrongly. If exit polling is to be believed, seventy per cent of California’s African-American voters did indeed vote yes on Prop. 8, as did upward of eighty per cent of Republicans, conservatives, white evangelicals, and weekly churchgoers. But the initiative would have passed, barely, even if not a single African-American had shown up at the polls.

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/12/01/081201taco_talk_hertzberg?printable=true#ixzz1uU12iBzv

Again, religiosity, not race.