Reply to Romney lead Obama 49% to 44% in latest polls

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=jsteele]That's not really "polls". That's one poll from Rasmussen which is normally Republican-leaning. For instance, the IPSO/Reuters poll from yesterday shows Obama beating Romney 49% to 44%, or almost the opposite:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-pollbre84714w-20120508,0,3495098.story

Polls this far out -- especially from Rasmussen -- are notoriously untrustworthy. But, even if they are accurate, they are nearly worthless. This is not a single national election, but 50-some individual elections. Look at the state by state polls and you will see that this is shaping up as an Obama blowout.
[/quote]

I was with you until the last sentence, Mr. Steele.  Are you really predicting an Obama blowout?  Really, the only states that are actually going to matter are Ohio and Florida, and the last averages I saw there (real clear politics) were Obama +4 (Ohio) and Obama +0.4 (Florida).  Those polls are largely registered voters, not likely voters, I believe, which usually skew D by a couple of points.  There is no blowout in the cards unless something very interesting comes out about one of the two candidates; otherwise, this is going to be a nail-biter.   There will likely be a 30-40 vote spread in the electoral college when the dust settles, but I'm reasonably confident that this one is coming down to a few hundred thousand votes in Ohio and Florida.   The polls a month from now are going to be very interesting indeed. [/quote]

Romney needs to take six battleground states to have a prayer.  He only has two in play right now.[/quote]

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