Anonymous wrote:http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

You do realize that when you cite Rasmussen everyone laughs at you, right?

gallup too http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Nate Silver has the best commentary and insight on polls and their validity (and he accurately predicted the electoral college count in 2008).

www.fivethirtyeight.com

Anonymous wrote:No way is Romney going to win Michigan...

Obama's only up 4 there in one of the recent polls I saw, so I wouldn't rule it out entirely. Obama is likely to win there, of course.

No way is Romney going to win Michigan...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:That's not really "polls". That's one poll from Rasmussen which is normally Republican-leaning. For instance, the IPSO/Reuters poll from yesterday shows Obama beating Romney 49% to 44%, or almost the opposite:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-pollbre84714w-20120508,0,3495098.story

Polls this far out -- especially from Rasmussen -- are notoriously untrustworthy. But, even if they are accurate, they are nearly worthless. This is not a single national election, but 50-some individual elections. Look at the state by state polls and you will see that this is shaping up as an Obama blowout.

I was with you until the last sentence, Mr. Steele. Are you really predicting an Obama blowout? Really, the only states that are actually going to matter are Ohio and Florida, and the last averages I saw there (real clear politics) were Obama +4 (Ohio) and Obama +0.4 (Florida). Those polls are largely registered voters, not likely voters, I believe, which usually skew D by a couple of points. There is no blowout in the cards unless something very interesting comes out about one of the two candidates; otherwise, this is going to be a nail-biter. There will likely be a 30-40 vote spread in the electoral college when the dust settles, but I'm reasonably confident that this one is coming down to a few hundred thousand votes in Ohio and Florida. The polls a month from now are going to be very interesting indeed.

Romney needs to take six battleground states to have a prayer. He only has two in play right now.

If Romney wins Ohio and Florida, Obama is only going to win if he wins Virginia (possible, the polls look good for him there but I am skeptical) or North Carolina (unlikely). But neither of these make a difference, really, if Romney can't win in Virginia he can't win in Ohio either, and if Romney is strong enough to win in Ohio he's going to run the table in all of the significant battleground states. Team Obama really only needs to care about Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Any one of those three will likely get Obama over the goal line, but they are all going to be nail-biters in my view.

Of course, if Romney can pick off Michigan or Pennsylvania, Obama is toast. I think Obama is safe in Pennsylvania, but potentially vulnerable in Michigan. Big picture, I see nothing to revise my assessment that all that is likely to matter is Ohio and Florida. Ohio is Obama-friendly, but will they all turn out? Also, I think Obama could be caught by the Bradley Effect and may be polling a bit stronger than he actually is as a result.

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:That's not really "polls". That's one poll from Rasmussen which is normally Republican-leaning. For instance, the IPSO/Reuters poll from yesterday shows Obama beating Romney 49% to 44%, or almost the opposite:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-pollbre84714w-20120508,0,3495098.story

Polls this far out -- especially from Rasmussen -- are notoriously untrustworthy. But, even if they are accurate, they are nearly worthless. This is not a single national election, but 50-some individual elections. Look at the state by state polls and you will see that this is shaping up as an Obama blowout.

I was with you until the last sentence, Mr. Steele. Are you really predicting an Obama blowout? Really, the only states that are actually going to matter are Ohio and Florida, and the last averages I saw there (real clear politics) were Obama +4 (Ohio) and Obama +0.4 (Florida). Those polls are largely registered voters, not likely voters, I believe, which usually skew D by a couple of points. There is no blowout in the cards unless something very interesting comes out about one of the two candidates; otherwise, this is going to be a nail-biter. There will likely be a 30-40 vote spread in the electoral college when the dust settles, but I'm reasonably confident that this one is coming down to a few hundred thousand votes in Ohio and Florida. The polls a month from now are going to be very interesting indeed.

Romney needs to take six battleground states to have a prayer. He only has two in play right now.

jsteele wrote:That's not really "polls". That's one poll from Rasmussen which is normally Republican-leaning. For instance, the IPSO/Reuters poll from yesterday shows Obama beating Romney 49% to 44%, or almost the opposite:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-pollbre84714w-20120508,0,3495098.story

Polls this far out -- especially from Rasmussen -- are notoriously untrustworthy. But, even if they are accurate, they are nearly worthless. This is not a single national election, but 50-some individual elections. Look at the state by state polls and you will see that this is shaping up as an Obama blowout.

I was with you until the last sentence, Mr. Steele. Are you really predicting an Obama blowout? Really, the only states that are actually going to matter are Ohio and Florida, and the last averages I saw there (real clear politics) were Obama +4 (Ohio) and Obama +0.4 (Florida). Those polls are largely registered voters, not likely voters, I believe, which usually skew D by a couple of points. There is no blowout in the cards unless something very interesting comes out about one of the two candidates; otherwise, this is going to be a nail-biter. There will likely be a 30-40 vote spread in the electoral college when the dust settles, but I'm reasonably confident that this one is coming down to a few hundred thousand votes in Ohio and Florida. The polls a month from now are going to be very interesting indeed.

I think Intrade.com, where people put their money where their mouths are, is more dependable. The going rate for an Obama share is $5.97 (to pay $10 if he is elected). A Romney share is $3.65.

Polls this far out aren't meaningful.

National polls aren't meaningful. It doesn't work that way; ask Al Gore. Only state-by-state numbers matter.

Rasmussen polls don't strike me as particularly meaningful in any context.

Before I even clicked I knew the poll would be Rasmussen. It always is. Poly hey are more cheerleaders than pollsters.

Do yourself a favor, and don't look at "polls" until a few weeks before the election. They are going to be all over the place. They will tighten up and be more accurate as election day comes.

That's not really "polls". That's one poll from Rasmussen which is normally Republican-leaning. For instance, the IPSO/Reuters poll from yesterday shows Obama beating Romney 49% to 44%, or almost the opposite:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-pollbre84714w-20120508,0,3495098.story

Polls this far out -- especially from Rasmussen -- are notoriously untrustworthy. But, even if they are accurate, they are nearly worthless. This is not a single national election, but 50-some individual elections. Look at the state by state polls and you will see that this is shaping up as an Obama blowout.

Unlike France it looks like America is getting smarter and choosing freedom over socialism