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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/

I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.[/quote]
Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.

Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.

The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer. [/quote]

I disagree with the premise that Twitter is not real life; this is literally how schools are dealing with their AC crises (PLURAL) currently.[/quote]
Let me put it another way. There is a epistemically closed progressive Twitter bubble that many people seem to live in that is completely disengaged from the majority of the population who are not in Twitter or social media generally. And it’s regularly the case that if you live ok closely at the social media engagement on Twitter, a lot of people promoting these messages do not live in DC. It’s really a very effective mechanism for the congregation and amplification of policies favored by geographically dispersed groups. But it is absolutely not a barometer of the median citywide DC Democratic primary voter, who is probably a 50+ Black woman.

While this online activist community of people doesn’t seem to like Mendelson much, the guy has been elected over-and-over by wide margins and has done nothing that would radically change perceptions about him to potentially change that outcome this time. People like him and have been voting for him for decades. Just because a small group of activists are not happy that he doesn’t support their preferred zoning, housing or tax policy or whatever is not sufficient to generate an upwelling of opposition to him to unseat him.

To believe otherwise is just foolish. [/quote]
Or to put it another way.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUIA_FcWIAEmi78.png[/img][/quote]

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