Anonymous
06/02/2022 20:30
Subject: Re:Post your local DC election predictions here!
Bowser will win with over 60%
Mendelson will win by around the same margin, maybe a little lower.
Nadeau will win Ward 1 (incumbency advantage basically wins council races unless you are insanely corrupt)
Wards 3 and 5 are going to be extremely close. I think Tricia Duncan (or Goulet) and Faith Gibson-Hubbard (or Zachary Parker) will pull those out, though.
Mendelson will win by around the same margin, maybe a little lower.
Nadeau will win Ward 1 (incumbency advantage basically wins council races unless you are insanely corrupt)
Wards 3 and 5 are going to be extremely close. I think Tricia Duncan (or Goulet) and Faith Gibson-Hubbard (or Zachary Parker) will pull those out, though.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 15:09
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:Bowser will win easily.
Mendo will win more easily than people think.
Nadeau will win (sadly) but for the second straight primary more people will vote against her than for her. Ward 1 will continue its downward spiral. Thanks, Sabel.
I have no clue who is winning in Ward 3.
This is the correct prediction.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 13:36
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I predict Henry Cohen will win ward 3 council member seat. By a landslide.
In a nine-person race a landslide could be 13%.
He won't win, but he will finish in the top 5. Goulet will probably win because of the Post endorsement.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 12:45
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Ward 1:
Salah Czapary: 47%
Brianne Nadeau: 44%
Sabel Harris: 9%
Harris needs to dropout of the race.
Salah Czapary: 47%
Brianne Nadeau: 44%
Sabel Harris: 9%
Harris needs to dropout of the race.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 12:27
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Bowser will win easily.
Mendo will win more easily than people think.
Nadeau will win (sadly) but for the second straight primary more people will vote against her than for her. Ward 1 will continue its downward spiral. Thanks, Sabel.
I have no clue who is winning in Ward 3.
Mendo will win more easily than people think.
Nadeau will win (sadly) but for the second straight primary more people will vote against her than for her. Ward 1 will continue its downward spiral. Thanks, Sabel.
I have no clue who is winning in Ward 3.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 11:42
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:I predict Henry Cohen will win ward 3 council member seat. By a landslide.
In a nine-person race a landslide could be 13%.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 10:13
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
My only prediction is low turnout.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 09:29
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/
I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.
Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.
Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.
The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer.
I disagree with the premise that Twitter is not real life; this is literally how schools are dealing with their AC crises (PLURAL) currently.
Let me put it another way. There is a epistemically closed progressive Twitter bubble that many people seem to live in that is completely disengaged from the majority of the population who are not in Twitter or social media generally. And it’s regularly the case that if you live ok closely at the social media engagement on Twitter, a lot of people promoting these messages do not live in DC. It’s really a very effective mechanism for the congregation and amplification of policies favored by geographically dispersed groups. But it is absolutely not a barometer of the median citywide DC Democratic primary voter, who is probably a 50+ Black woman.
While this online activist community of people doesn’t seem to like Mendelson much, the guy has been elected over-and-over by wide margins and has done nothing that would radically change perceptions about him to potentially change that outcome this time. People like him and have been voting for him for decades. Just because a small group of activists are not happy that he doesn’t support their preferred zoning, housing or tax policy or whatever is not sufficient to generate an upwelling of opposition to him to unseat him.
To believe otherwise is just foolish.
Or to put it another way.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 09:04
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/
I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.
Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.
Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.
The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer.
I disagree with the premise that Twitter is not real life; this is literally how schools are dealing with their AC crises (PLURAL) currently.
Let me put it another way. There is a epistemically closed progressive Twitter bubble that many people seem to live in that is completely disengaged from the majority of the population who are not in Twitter or social media generally. And it’s regularly the case that if you live ok closely at the social media engagement on Twitter, a lot of people promoting these messages do not live in DC. It’s really a very effective mechanism for the congregation and amplification of policies favored by geographically dispersed groups. But it is absolutely not a barometer of the median citywide DC Democratic primary voter, who is probably a 50+ Black woman.
While this online activist community of people doesn’t seem to like Mendelson much, the guy has been elected over-and-over by wide margins and has done nothing that would radically change perceptions about him to potentially change that outcome this time. People like him and have been voting for him for decades. Just because a small group of activists are not happy that he doesn’t support their preferred zoning, housing or tax policy or whatever is not sufficient to generate an upwelling of opposition to him to unseat him.
To believe otherwise is just foolish.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 08:53
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
I predict Henry Cohen will win ward 3 council member seat. By a landslide.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 08:52
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/
I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.
Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.
Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.
The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer.
I disagree with the premise that Twitter is not real life; this is literally how schools are dealing with their AC crises (PLURAL) currently.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 08:39
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Anonymous wrote:Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/
I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.
Bowser is polling low but will do much better at the ballot. That’s what incumbency means. Anyone on the fence about her (and I’m sure there are many) will more likely than not pull the lever for her in the end. She’s certainly going to lose Wards 7 and 8. But Robert White had run such a bad campaign that he doesn’t look promising to significantly cut into her vote share in the rest the city.
Graham was under investigation for corruption at the time Nadeau beat him. The main issue for voters at the time was whether they would re-elect a corrupt politician. No comparison to Mendelson. His crime seems to be that he doesn’t govern for social media engagement. Twitter is not real life, even in hyper political DC. Nadeau also only eon with only 6,600 votes against 4,600 votes. Mendelson is in a city-wide race. There is absolutely no comparison here. There isn’t even a major animating purpose to Palmer’s campaign other than she’s younger and more attuned to social media.
The mayor race might be a little closer due to having 3 candidates and general dissatisfaction with Bowser. But Palmer, in the other hand, is going to get beat bad. Last time around, Lazere was actually a formidable candidate and Mendelson absolutely crushed him. It will be a wider margin for Palmer.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 05:57
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Bowser was polling at 47% in the one poll I saw (from WaPo): https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/17/dc-poll-bowser-white-election/
I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.
I’m also thinking Palmer may sneak up on Mendo just as Nadeau snuck up on Graham. I don’t think she’ll beat him but I think she’ll be more competitive than folks suspect.
Anonymous
06/02/2022 04:18
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
These are bizarre predictions.
Bowser and Mendo will easily claim 60%+
Nadeau, on the other hand, is a weak candidate so she may not breach 50% share.
However, generally speaking incumbency has very strong currency unless you’ve been indicted for corruption.
Bowser and Mendo will easily claim 60%+
Nadeau, on the other hand, is a weak candidate so she may not breach 50% share.
However, generally speaking incumbency has very strong currency unless you’ve been indicted for corruption.
Anonymous
06/01/2022 23:57
Subject: Post your local DC election predictions here!
Mayor -
Bowser 40%
R White 30%
T White 20%
Other 10%
Council Chair -
Mendo 50%
Palmer 45%
Other 5%
Ward 1 -
Nadeau 50%
Czapary 35%
Harris 15%
I’m not familiar enough with the Ward 3 and Ward 5 races to make predictions on those fronts.
Bowser 40%
R White 30%
T White 20%
Other 10%
Council Chair -
Mendo 50%
Palmer 45%
Other 5%
Ward 1 -
Nadeau 50%
Czapary 35%
Harris 15%
I’m not familiar enough with the Ward 3 and Ward 5 races to make predictions on those fronts.