Reply to Anemic stock market for next 15 years? Where to invest with high inflation and rising rates?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]So no one here is paying attention to the really bad inflation news, the subsequent rate increases that have happened, what we did in the late 70’s and early 80’s to counter inflation which was raise rates really high, that a series of rate increases are seemingly inevitable and are projected to counter the 8% inflation rate so far, or where it might make sense to reallocate their current portfolio, if it’s stock heavy to account for any of this? I’m just asking if anyone has any idea. If you’re permabulls and don’t think the market could decline and return a much lower rate over the next few years that’s cool, but if not, I am looking to talk with folks who kind of see things my way which is that the 20% per year stock market returns from VTSAX and stocks in general of the last 10+ years aren’t inevitable.

For those of you worried that we might, gasp, have a protracted recession because of a bunch of factors (Covid hangover, Ukraine unrest and the varying treble effects such as grain prices, inflation, etc) what’s your plan for your stock, bond, portfolio allocations?[/quote]

I just think there are too many competing factors each with their own spectrum of uncertainties to let it influence my allocation.  I stick with my personal risk profile, my personal needs and keep my allocation focused based on that.  I never counted on 20% returns to continue nor am I convinced we'll have a protracted recession.  The people who get paid to predict all these things are all over the map and the sensible ones mark how much uncertainty there is around their predictions.   The thing I think is particularly hard now is that some of the traditional moves in inflation (e.g. more to REITS) are uncertain because of remote work/pandemic.  I think stocks are still the best bet for inflation in the long run. [/quote]

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