Anonymous wrote:Lots of articles about a lost decade of stock returns coming up. It's unnerving.

The 2000s were basically a lost decade.

S&P 500
January 2000: 1440
December 2009: 1130

I'll take 5% annual returns.

I’m wondering the same thing, OP. Sure, some ibonds are good. Most of my 401k goes to VTSAX but I’d love a low-fee hedge …

I put some $$$ into a fund that tracks interest rates, figuring they’ll rise. I have a Fidelity contrafund that I like but that’s parked at an old 401k. There are funds like SH that are supposed to have an inverse relationship to the stock market but I haven’t pulled the trigger on those yet.

Anonymous wrote:Lots of articles about a lost decade of stock returns coming up. It's unnerving.

Those articles have been published for decades now

[quote=Anonymous]So no one here is paying attention to the really bad inflation news, the subsequent rate increases that have happened, what we did in the late 70’s and early 80’s to counter inflation which was raise rates really high, that a series of rate increases are seemingly inevitable and are projected to counter the 8% inflation rate so far, or where it might make sense to reallocate their current portfolio, if it’s stock heavy to account for any of this? I’m just asking if anyone has any idea. If you’re permabulls and don’t think the market could decline and return a much lower rate over the next few years that’s cool, but if not, I am looking to talk with folks who kind of see things my way which is that the 20% per year stock market returns from VTSAX and stocks in general of the last 10+ years aren’t inevitable.

For those of you worried that we might, gasp, have a protracted recession because of a bunch of factors (Covid hangover, Ukraine unrest and the varying treble effects such as grain prices, inflation, etc) what’s your plan for your stock, bond, portfolio allocations?[/quote]

No I am not paying attention. I’m investing 25% of my take home income in my taxable brokerage as I’ve been doing every 2 weeks since 1999. I’m not playing dumb games. People like you really should just take a seat at the kids table

Anonymous wrote:I bonds?

I bonds are a good idea.

Anonymous wrote:Where is a good place to invest with rising interest rates? I have my money all tied up in VTSAX. J foresee 5% returns per year coming up as tye stock market cools. What other vanguard funds should I reallocate my portfolio? Some kind of bond fund? What is a good place to dollar cost average in this type of investing climate?

Are you the type of person who still wears a mask out in public?

[quote=Anonymous]So no one here is paying attention to the really bad inflation news, the subsequent rate increases that have happened, what we did in the late 70’s and early 80’s to counter inflation which was raise rates really high, that a series of rate increases are seemingly inevitable and are projected to counter the 8% inflation rate so far, or where it might make sense to reallocate their current portfolio, if it’s stock heavy to account for any of this? I’m just asking if anyone has any idea. If you’re permabulls and don’t think the market could decline and return a much lower rate over the next few years that’s cool, but if not, I am looking to talk with folks who kind of see things my way which is that the 20% per year stock market returns from VTSAX and stocks in general of the last 10+ years aren’t inevitable.

For those of you worried that we might, gasp, have a protracted recession because of a bunch of factors (Covid hangover, Ukraine unrest and the varying treble effects such as grain prices, inflation, etc) what’s your plan for your stock, bond, portfolio allocations?[/quote]

I just think there are too many competing factors each with their own spectrum of uncertainties to let it influence my allocation. I stick with my personal risk profile, my personal needs and keep my allocation focused based on that. I never counted on 20% returns to continue nor am I convinced we'll have a protracted recession. The people who get paid to predict all these things are all over the map and the sensible ones mark how much uncertainty there is around their predictions. The thing I think is particularly hard now is that some of the traditional moves in inflation (e.g. more to REITS) are uncertain because of remote work/pandemic. I think stocks are still the best bet for inflation in the long run.

So no one here is paying attention to the really bad inflation news, the subsequent rate increases that have happened, what we did in the late 70’s and early 80’s to counter inflation which was raise rates really high, that a series of rate increases are seemingly inevitable and are projected to counter the 8% inflation rate so far, or where it might make sense to reallocate their current portfolio, if it’s stock heavy to account for any of this? I’m just asking if anyone has any idea. If you’re permabulls and don’t think the market could decline and return a much lower rate over the next few years that’s cool, but if not, I am looking to talk with folks who kind of see things my way which is that the 20% per year stock market returns from VTSAX and stocks in general of the last 10+ years aren’t inevitable.

For those of you worried that we might, gasp, have a protracted recession because of a bunch of factors (Covid hangover, Ukraine unrest and the varying treble effects such as grain prices, inflation, etc) what’s your plan for your stock, bond, portfolio allocations?

No one knows what is going to happen. Just invest consistently over time.

I bonds?

Bitcoin.

Lots of articles about a lost decade of stock returns coming up. It's unnerving.

Stick it under your mattress, chicken little.

Where is a good place to invest with rising interest rates? I have my money all tied up in VTSAX. J foresee 5% returns per year coming up as tye stock market cools. What other vanguard funds should I reallocate my portfolio? Some kind of bond fund? What is a good place to dollar cost average in this type of investing climate?