Reply to How to get rid of Charles Allen?

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[quote=jsteele]I like Charles Allen so I am loath to give you advice as to how to defeat him, but the political geek in me can't resist. Defeating an incumbent is difficult in DC because they normally have a large built-in base of support. I don't know about Allen, but in my home Ward 4, the incumbent can normally count on at least 40% support. That is not enough to win a majority, but normally can win a plurality which is all that is needed in the primary which normally has lots of candidates (the only election that matters for Ward seats). Incumbents can also count on a big financial advantage since contributors like to curry favor with them. The challenge is getting an opponent who can get more than 40% of the vote. Usually, there are several challengers who split the 60% potential vote available to them. Brandon Todd was defeated because Janeese George got in the race early, built a huge base of support, and managed to keep all but one more candidate from entering the race. In a nearly head-to-head race, she was able to defeat Todd. She probably couldn't have if there was another candidate around to take 10-15% of the vote.

So the trick would be to find a candidate who can generate enough support and money and keep other challengers out of the race. The additional problem you would have in defeating Allen is that the activists that might form a base for an opposition candidate generally support him. An opponent could count on money from the Police Union but officers normally don't live in DC and, therefore, can't vote. I don't know of there are enough anti-Allen voters who agree with each other on anything else. So, the likely outcome is several opponents in single digits and Allen winning easily.
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