I basically like Charles Allen and I certainly like him better than anyone he has run against. I'm a moderately liberal, highly educated, white, UMC, 10 year resident of the Hill with multiple ES kids enrolled in the same DCPS as his. Just in case that helps you demographically.

I haven't liked his stance on school reopening and the paragraph quoted above is like 10% true and 90% ridiculous, but the actual second chances for young offenders bill he backed is good/isn't actually contributing to crime. He also has very good constituent services overall. I have seen him usefully intervene on behalf of both vulnerable citizens and in the face of idiotic bureaucratic intransigence, and he personally responds to most emails so folks at least feel like their voice was heard.

I think there is 0 chance he will get defeated by a more moderate candidate and he has clearly tacked to the left a bit (or at least focused on left-leaning issues) after that's where his last challenge came from.

What exactly do you want your council member to do about carjackings?

Anonymous wrote:From Allen's latest Ward 6 Update: "I wanted to quickly provide some information around the increase the District is seeing in car thefts and carjackings... In understanding possible motives for younger defendants, OAG reports that the reasons behind the thefts vary from being engaged in other acts of violence, to using the car as a warm place to stay. This is obviously only a limited sample, but when I talk about understanding the root causes of crime, this kind of context is helpful to understand both what justice should look like and understanding how we can head it off for someone in a similar situation -- i.e. people need housing and heat."

It's depressing to think that it's impossible to beat a candidate who attributes the large uptick in carjackings over the last sixth months is due to people wanting a "warm place to stay."

wow. it’s because they ARE NOT IN SCHOOL charles! which you yourself played a huge role in accomplishing. smh.

Anonymous wrote:From Allen's latest Ward 6 Update: "I wanted to quickly provide some information around the increase the District is seeing in car thefts and carjackings... In understanding possible motives for younger defendants, OAG reports that the reasons behind the thefts vary from being engaged in other acts of violence, to using the car as a warm place to stay. This is obviously only a limited sample, but when I talk about understanding the root causes of crime, this kind of context is helpful to understand both what justice should look like and understanding how we can head it off for someone in a similar situation -- i.e. people need housing and heat."

It's depressing to think that it's impossible to beat a candidate who attributes the large uptick in carjackings over the last sixth months is due to people wanting a "warm place to stay."

OMG

Is he of sound mind?

From Allen's latest Ward 6 Update: "I wanted to quickly provide some information around the increase the District is seeing in car thefts and carjackings... In understanding possible motives for younger defendants, OAG reports that the reasons behind the thefts vary from being engaged in other acts of violence, to using the car as a warm place to stay. This is obviously only a limited sample, but when I talk about understanding the root causes of crime, this kind of context is helpful to understand both what justice should look like and understanding how we can head it off for someone in a similar situation -- i.e. people need housing and heat."

It's depressing to think that it's impossible to beat a candidate who attributes the large uptick in carjackings over the last sixth months is due to people wanting a "warm place to stay."

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here. Thanks Jeff for your detailed explanation. I'm wondering (and this is also a question to others): Where does Charles Allen get his votes from? Who supports him, by race, SES, other interest groups (e.g., supporters of DCPS vs. charters, etc.)? To ask that question another way, what motivates him politically?

I haven't followed Allen's elections very closely and the last one was 2018 so I had to look up the results. My analysis above is wrong because Allen didn't have multiple opponents as I had assumed. Rather, he had single opponent and beat her 68% - 23%. Unless he has massively lost support for some reason, he will be nearly impossible to defeat.

I know that he was endorsed by many progressive groups and is popular with the good government types. He has even been endorsed by the police union previously, though I understand they are pissed off at him now. I think the question is less who supports Allen than who opposes him since he appears to have very broad support. My guess is that other than the police, the largest group of opponents is probably long-term residents who are opposed to change. Ward 6 has undergone a lot of transformation that has probably upset a lot of people. But, I am not even confident that he doesn't have support among this group.

Opposed to change...no. Opposed to Allen's oppressive brand...yes.

Anonymous wrote:OP here. Thanks Jeff for your detailed explanation. I'm wondering (and this is also a question to others): Where does Charles Allen get his votes from? Who supports him, by race, SES, other interest groups (e.g., supporters of DCPS vs. charters, etc.)? To ask that question another way, what motivates him politically?

I haven't followed Allen's elections very closely and the last one was 2018 so I had to look up the results. My analysis above is wrong because Allen didn't have multiple opponents as I had assumed. Rather, he had single opponent and beat her 68% - 23%. Unless he has massively lost support for some reason, he will be nearly impossible to defeat.

I know that he was endorsed by many progressive groups and is popular with the good government types. He has even been endorsed by the police union previously, though I understand they are pissed off at him now. I think the question is less who supports Allen than who opposes him since he appears to have very broad support. My guess is that other than the police, the largest group of opponents is probably long-term residents who are opposed to change. Ward 6 has undergone a lot of transformation that has probably upset a lot of people. But, I am not even confident that he doesn't have support among this group.

The last person to run against him run to the left of him - ugh. Lots of people are starting to complain about his stance on crime and how much it is increasing around the hill. That might be a potential hook for a more moderate candidate. Ward 6 is also going to change when they adjust the wards. Not sure if that will matter.

OP here. Thanks Jeff for your detailed explanation. I'm wondering (and this is also a question to others): Where does Charles Allen get his votes from? Who supports him, by race, SES, other interest groups (e.g., supporters of DCPS vs. charters, etc.)? To ask that question another way, what motivates him politically?

I think you could get people from across DC to financially support this.
-Ward 3

Get the FBI to bust or investigate him for something. The bad press alone tends to sink DC candidates (see: Mayor Grey)

Anonymous wrote:Yep. There needs to be a strong, single opponent and one who establishes themselves sooner rather than later, for money-raising purposes.

Nadeau won in 2018 because her opponents split the vote. She'd be extremely vulnerable, otherwise.

Didn't Nadeau defeat an incumbent as well (not in 2018)? I think that Lewis George did a good job of differentiating herself from Todd on the progressive/ not entrenched politically front. I think she also was helped by her defund the police stance that dovetailed with the BLM protests last June. The Todd/ Lewis George contest was VERY heated on our local list serve and I got the sense that Todd lost support because there were many people who had reached out to him for help and his constituent services was uneven.

Yep. There needs to be a strong, single opponent and one who establishes themselves sooner rather than later, for money-raising purposes.

Nadeau won in 2018 because her opponents split the vote. She'd be extremely vulnerable, otherwise.

I like Charles Allen so I am loath to give you advice as to how to defeat him, but the political geek in me can't resist. Defeating an incumbent is difficult in DC because they normally have a large built-in base of support. I don't know about Allen, but in my home Ward 4, the incumbent can normally count on at least 40% support. That is not enough to win a majority, but normally can win a plurality which is all that is needed in the primary which normally has lots of candidates (the only election that matters for Ward seats). Incumbents can also count on a big financial advantage since contributors like to curry favor with them. The challenge is getting an opponent who can get more than 40% of the vote. Usually, there are several challengers who split the 60% potential vote available to them. Brandon Todd was defeated because Janeese George got in the race early, built a huge base of support, and managed to keep all but one more candidate from entering the race. In a nearly head-to-head race, she was able to defeat Todd. She probably couldn't have if there was another candidate around to take 10-15% of the vote.

So the trick would be to find a candidate who can generate enough support and money and keep other challengers out of the race. The additional problem you would have in defeating Allen is that the activists that might form a base for an opposition candidate generally support him. An opponent could count on money from the Police Union but officers normally don't live in DC and, therefore, can't vote. I don't know of there are enough anti-Allen voters who agree with each other on anything else. So, the likely outcome is several opponents in single digits and Allen winning easily.

Is it possible? I'm hoping that someone more well-versed in local politics and electoral math than I am can explain why it's so hard, and what are the best possibilities for electing someone more moderate. Thanks.