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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period [b]AND[/b] Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period [b]OR[/b] trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care [b]AND[/b] Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases. 
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases. 
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking [b]May 8th at the earliest[/b], [u]in a best-case scenario.[/u]

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. [b]So that would be May 22nd[/b], [u]in a best-case scenario[/u]

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), [b]should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed." [/b]

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

[b]First Game: June 5[/b], [u] in a best-case scenario[/u]

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

[/quote]

[b]should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed." [/b]

You can not play games or do anything Practice but drills with maximize physical distance. So this is not the date that soccer will start. Maybe he fall.[/quote]

Agreed. Op is aiming for phase 2 but with that verbatim, Actual games would be phase 3.. at the earliest 14 more days on that so june 19th. [/quote]

shhh... don't tell the people on unemployment making $700 - $1000.00 a week they want us to be shut down so they can make more than they actually do at work. [/quote]

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