Anonymous wrote:I should note that many scientists believe the time between phase 1 & 2 and 2 & 3 will be much longer than 14 days.

Great

I should note that many scientists believe the time between phase 1 & 2 and 2 & 3 will be much longer than 14 days.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

You can not play games or do anything Practice but drills with maximize physical distance. So this is not the date that soccer will start. Maybe he fall.

Agreed. Op is aiming for phase 2 but with that verbatim, Actual games would be phase 3.. at the earliest 14 more days on that so june 19th.

shhh... don't tell the people on unemployment making $700 - $1000.00 a week they want us to be shut down so they can make more than they actually do at work.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

You can not play games or do anything Practice but drills with maximize physical distance. So this is not the date that soccer will start. Maybe he fall.

Agreed. Op is aiming for phase 2 but with that verbatim, Actual games would be phase 3.. at the earliest 14 more days on that so june 19th.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for putting all the thought into this, it's helpful to break it down like that.

+1. Very helpful information.

+1

Hogan will start phase one by May 15, maybe as early as thr 9th as he mentioned today,

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for putting all the thought into this, it's helpful to break it down like that.

+1. Very helpful information.

Thanks for putting all the thought into this, it's helpful to break it down like that.

Anonymous wrote:It makes very little sense to require a downward trend day for day with the way our COVID statistics are gathered. Would be smarter to do it on a weekly basis.

Downward trend is also harder to achieve if you've been fairly consistent throughout, vs. having a giant spike. Which seems counter intuitive.

It makes very little sense to require a downward trend day for day with the way our COVID statistics are gathered. Would be smarter to do it on a weekly basis.

You lost me at “guidelines set out by the White House.”

You have to consider there should be a buffer period before competitions start again so teams can actually get up to speed fitness-wise. Everyone would like to get back on the field ASAP on principle, but if we rush this, obviously there’s the risk of contributing to a second wave of infections, but players will also be dropping left and right with injuries. See if your player gets an offer to play in college when they’ve torn an ACL. At the end of the day, our pay-to-play system will care about making profits, and not the best interests of the players.

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

You can not play games or do anything Practice but drills with maximize physical distance. So this is not the date that soccer will start. Maybe he fall.

"Guidelines."
Who says anyone MUST follow any of them?

I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.