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[quote=Anonymous]I just took a look at this and it was interesting. In a couple years, following the Census, DC will have to rebalance its wards (not perfectly, but will have to).
Most recent (2017) Census data I found reflected a population estimate that summed to 672,391, broken down by ward as follows:
Ward 1: 83598
Ward 2: 77940
Ward 3: 84021
Ward 4: 84643
Ward 5: 86136
Ward 6: 91093
Ward 7: 79800
Ward 8: 85160
A quick look at the percentages here showed that Wards 2, 6, and 7 are clearly going to have to shift if these numbers hold, whereas Wards 1, 3 and 4 are probably not in line for much need for boundary changes.  Given Ward boundary design and Ward 7's lower-than average projected percentage, it looks clear that Ward 8's population growth will be shifted into Ward 7. Otherwise, it appears that the core of the change can come by shifting populations between contiguous portions of Wards 2, 6, and 7. That assumes, I believe reasonably, that they don't just trash the maps or start wildly redrawing lines people tend to discuss as communities or regions.

I think one likely flash point will basically be - Ward 7 will HAVE TO expand across the Anacostia, and significantly. It is under-average whereas Ward 6 is massively over-average, meaning one of two things - Ward 7 takes a huge chunk out of Ward 5, causing Ward 5 to shift southward toward H St. NE, or Ward 7 takes a chunk out of Ward 6. Other equalization would basically be made to adjust downtown populations between Wards 2 and 6.

This all assumes that things are roughly on trend between 675,000 population in 2017 and 715,000 or whatever in the 2020 Census.  I think it's possible that greater growth than expected could be in Ward 2 apartments, etc., but otherwise it's probably roughly going to track this as we head into DC Ward redistricting in 2021.[/quote]

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