I would guess Greater Greater Washington will restore the "redistricting game" so people can play with combinations.

There will be shifts mostly making Wards 5, 6, and 8 physically and populatonally smaller. That means some minor shifts around the edges for the contiguous wards.

Ward 8 is also likely to grow more - where would that go? Ward 7? Wards 1 and 2 may take some of Ward 6.

Anonymous wrote:Ward 7 already expanded across the Anacostia in the last redistricting. I lived right where the line was drawn in NE DC when it happened and it was a brutal fight. That said, my friends who live in Kingman Park don't seem to mind being in Ward 7. I imagine the neighbors on the other side of the line are already expecting that boundary to move west. It was one of the reasons we decided to move.

Interesting tidbit though.... the current Ward 6 councilman, Mr. Allen, lives right in that area and he could easily be redistricted out of 6 and into 7 if he doesn't move.

Yep. We already went through this. One issue that a friend in Kingman Park raised is that they didn't have the residential parking permit to go park near the RFK metro anymore and that hurt. I can't remember whom she blamed but she seemed to think it was in retaliation for something by someone.

Ward 6 will lose geography to Ward 2 and Ward 7, unless they want to get fancy.

Anonymous wrote:The growth up to 715,000 and more will not be evenly distributed across the wards. What happens if the growth is all Wards 6, 7 and 8th for example? Would Ward 2 be split across Ward 1 and 2, and a new Ward 2 created further east?

More likely, I think, is that Ward 2 absorbs parts of other wards (most likely 5 & 6, maybe 1) to make up the difference. It looks like everything south below U Street NW could become Ward 2 in U Street/Bloomingdale neighborhoods and that would solve the issue.

The growth up to 715,000 and more will not be evenly distributed across the wards. What happens if the growth is all Wards 6, 7 and 8th for example? Would Ward 2 be split across Ward 1 and 2, and a new Ward 2 created further east?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ward 7 already expanded across the Anacostia in the last redistricting. I lived right where the line was drawn in NE DC when it happened and it was a brutal fight. That said, my friends who live in Kingman Park don't seem to mind being in Ward 7. I imagine the neighbors on the other side of the line are already expecting that boundary to move west. It was one of the reasons we decided to move.

Interesting tidbit though.... the current Ward 6 councilman, Mr. Allen, lives right in that area and he could easily be redistricted out of 6 and into 7 if he doesn't move.

Why did potentially being redistricted make you want to move? Since school boundaries aren't connected to ward boundaries, why does it matter?

Parking was also ward based at the time and we enjoyed free parking across ward 6 - it was glorious! I think that changed already but I am not sure. Generally, I was really engaged in my local ANC, which included the east side of H Street, so the idea of being segmented differently didn't sit super well with me. Our lives were facing west and north, not east, and the idea of not being able to influence development in that area was frustrating.

In truth, we were going to move to a bigger place anyway, we were just more inclined to look further in Ward 6 or elsewhere after the redistricting effort. We landed in Ward 4.

Anonymous wrote:Ward 7 already expanded across the Anacostia in the last redistricting. I lived right where the line was drawn in NE DC when it happened and it was a brutal fight. That said, my friends who live in Kingman Park don't seem to mind being in Ward 7. I imagine the neighbors on the other side of the line are already expecting that boundary to move west. It was one of the reasons we decided to move.

Interesting tidbit though.... the current Ward 6 councilman, Mr. Allen, lives right in that area and he could easily be redistricted out of 6 and into 7 if he doesn't move.

Why did potentially being redistricted make you want to move? Since school boundaries aren't connected to ward boundaries, why does it matter?

Right about where the Ward 7 line is - but now we're probably talking about the need to take (my educated guess) just under 10% of the total population of Ward 6 and put it in Ward 7 (or move toward other less likely alternatives). That might be . . . everything east of 15th?

Ward 7 already expanded across the Anacostia in the last redistricting. I lived right where the line was drawn in NE DC when it happened and it was a brutal fight. That said, my friends who live in Kingman Park don't seem to mind being in Ward 7. I imagine the neighbors on the other side of the line are already expecting that boundary to move west. It was one of the reasons we decided to move.

Interesting tidbit though.... the current Ward 6 councilman, Mr. Allen, lives right in that area and he could easily be redistricted out of 6 and into 7 if he doesn't move.

the ward equivalent is "divide total by eight." Which here is a little over 84,000. When the 2020 census is done, my guess is that each ward should represent about 88-90,000 people.

I know the smallest ANC unit aims to be 2000 voters. Is there a ward equivalent number?

I just took a look at this and it was interesting. In a couple years, following the Census, DC will have to rebalance its wards (not perfectly, but will have to).
Most recent (2017) Census data I found reflected a population estimate that summed to 672,391, broken down by ward as follows:
Ward 1: 83598
Ward 2: 77940
Ward 3: 84021
Ward 4: 84643
Ward 5: 86136
Ward 6: 91093
Ward 7: 79800
Ward 8: 85160
A quick look at the percentages here showed that Wards 2, 6, and 7 are clearly going to have to shift if these numbers hold, whereas Wards 1, 3 and 4 are probably not in line for much need for boundary changes. Given Ward boundary design and Ward 7's lower-than average projected percentage, it looks clear that Ward 8's population growth will be shifted into Ward 7. Otherwise, it appears that the core of the change can come by shifting populations between contiguous portions of Wards 2, 6, and 7. That assumes, I believe reasonably, that they don't just trash the maps or start wildly redrawing lines people tend to discuss as communities or regions.

I think one likely flash point will basically be - Ward 7 will HAVE TO expand across the Anacostia, and significantly. It is under-average whereas Ward 6 is massively over-average, meaning one of two things - Ward 7 takes a huge chunk out of Ward 5, causing Ward 5 to shift southward toward H St. NE, or Ward 7 takes a chunk out of Ward 6. Other equalization would basically be made to adjust downtown populations between Wards 2 and 6.

This all assumes that things are roughly on trend between 675,000 population in 2017 and 715,000 or whatever in the 2020 Census. I think it's possible that greater growth than expected could be in Ward 2 apartments, etc., but otherwise it's probably roughly going to track this as we head into DC Ward redistricting in 2021.