Analysis of Percentage of National Merit Semifinalists at Different Schools

Anonymous
I know you are confused (this was diagnosed long ago on this board). That's why the questions were not directed to you but the original poster.
Anonymous
Wait, you can tell who I am? That's really freaky, how do you do that?
Anonymous
I'm confused--why do you need OP to answer all those many questions?? Didn't OP provide raw data? Aren't you all with the questions just as able to analyze it? And just as able to fill in missing information if that's what you want to do? Why all the demands?


The poster has a fair request. The original poster presented more than "raw data" but an "Analysis of Percentage of National Merit Semifinalists st Different Schools" as the topic header.

The accuracy and validity of the data and missing data aside; a concern is raised about the analytic method used to arrive at these "percentages". These concerns regard the numerators, denominators and era effect (2004-2009 vs 1998-2003). While the poster did not compile the raw data it appears the missing data points are not evenly distributed amongst schools and the 2 eras. For the confused, what does this analysis of percentage therefore mean?


Anonymous
A few months ago, I got sick of people making unsubstantiated claims about which schools have good or bad records of National Merit Semifinalists. So I did some research and plugged the results into a spreadsheet. I just recently cleaned it up, and I'm posting it here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AqmbmeXDw6...djRTaTU0SUtfSk5WLS1CY0E&hl=en. I'm not interested in starting a discussion about how different schools stack up on NMSF data. My hope is only that others who want to argue about this stuff will at least be able to talk from a common set of facts, and will be less likely to make up false info. Also, if someone does start to make stuff up, people can call bullshit more easily by referencing this spreadsheet. Let me be clear that I'm not suggesting NMSF data can be used to claim one school is better or worse than any other. At best, it's just one way of looking at schools, and there certainly are many other more significant factors for most families.

I gathered most of the NMSF numbers from newspaper listings or from the schools' own press releases. For a few assorted years, I used data from other websites that seemed reliable. To calculate the number of students in each class, I averaged three class years of data from NAEP. I'm pretty confident most of the data is valid. However, people should recognize that the sample sizes are so small that there likely is still a large amount of variability in the final numbers.

If anyone has more years of data I can add to the spreadsheet, please post a link with the data source. I'm not going to add data just based on some anonymous person's say-so, but if you link to a credible source, I'd like to add the extra data.

I hope this helps.


To use the poster's own term: Analytical method for arriving at percentages = bull shit in, bull shit out.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:To use the poster's own term: Analytical method for arriving at percentages = bull shit in, bull shit out.


Why don't you download the "bull shit" figures and correct them with your own? These figures from OP don't tell us everything we'd like to know about the schools, but they give an approximation of how many academically outstanding students are at each school. If you want to use a shorter time frame, change the formula for average NMSF. If you find additional data, plug it in. But this compilation is useful information. I don't understand your aversion to facts.
Anonymous
I really want to review the following STA info: SAT I/ACT averages, SAT II averages, AP score (w/subject names) averages, GPA average, and a college placement list breakdown for '07-'09?

Admin will not provide a list of averages, not school policy, blah, blah, blah. I can probably find the exmissions list from the Bulletin for the last 3 years.

The following was posted from another thread a year ago:

"As an alum, I can say STA is a great school, but it has some drawbacks as well. A number of the teachers are hired first as coaches and then placed as teachers - often in 6-9th grade. Their teaching ability is sometimes less than impressive. The school also benefits from a "good in - good out" situation where bright kids getting in do well when they leave thereby enhancing the school's reputation. (Think Thomas Jefferson in Fairfax County, a Public School that has higher SAT scores than St. Albans and is FREE). If your son is in the top 20 percent of his STA class, the school will provide him some great benefits. If not, be careful. Finally, many of my friends complained that while they were well prepared academically for college, they were surprised at how many of their classmates from public school were as well. We were told too often that we were "the best and the brightest" and some seemed a little surprised to find out how many other bright, competent, successful kids there are in the world. Many also felt sheltered by the small school - some having the same set of friends for as many as 13 years. They experienced some difficulty adjusting to college when they were exposed to the "bigger world."










Anonymous
I don't have anyone at STA -- but I'm curious as to why there is so much STA bashing on so many of these threads.

I don't get why people are so obsessed with some of these stats. Look to where the students go to college -- that is a good final sum test.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:I don't have anyone at STA -- but I'm curious as to why there is so much STA bashing on so many of these threads.

I don't get why people are so obsessed with some of these stats. Look to where the students go to college -- that is a good final sum test.


Run. Get out of here. The StA-bashing troll (with lots of stats) will find you and smite you. Run, I say. And don't look back.
SAM2
Member Offline
OP here. Many thanks for all the kind words. I hope the data will prove useful, despite its limits. And most importantly, many thanks to those who posted links leading to more data to fill some of the gaps -- that's the most helpful of all. I'll try to answer a few questions that have been asked, before I have to go to work.

What was my original plan? Why did I start collecting the data? Simply because I was frustrated a few months ago by some people who were making unsubstantiated claims about the NMSF numbers at various schools. I can't even remember now the exact context. At the time, I just quickly dug up a few NMSF lists to test whether the DCUM claims I was seeing rang true or not. After I found some good data, I decided to plug it into a spreadsheet rather than just discard it. Over time, I added to the data and it grew into a more extensive set. I did the work to compile the data because I was interested, so why not share with everyone?

Why did I look back 10-11 years? Why not longer? Why not shorter? No particular reason. I just started gathering data for various years. As the data extended beyond 10 years ago, I lost interest and figured no one else would care. If others want more data in the spreadsheet, just post the data with a substantiating link. I'm happy to add it. On the other side of the question, I can see the argument that more recent years might be more relevant, but there's just not that much data in recent years right now. Once people can point me to full data sets for recent years, then I'm happy to add percentage calculations for other date ranges. In actuality though, I don't think most schools really change that much over a short period like 10 years -- that's not even long enough for one child to make it all the way from K through 12.

Why is data missing for some years? Did I purposefully select certain years? I did not purposefully select or deselect any years. I included all credible data I could find. If particular schools in the spreadsheet lack data for certain years, it's because I simply have not been able to find data for those years yet. Help me out by finding and posting data!

What conclusions do I draw from these numbers? I'm not trying to suggest anything about any school by posting this data. I just offer it up so that other parents who care about such things can look at actual data, and not have to rely on rumors and other unsubstantiated claims about how different schools compare.

Enjoy the data, and please keep posting links to more! Thanks.
Anonymous
You are all freaks.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:You are all freaks.



Hmm lunchtime, faculty on break?
Anonymous
OP here. Many thanks for all the kind words. I hope the data will prove useful, despite its limits. And most importantly, many thanks to those who posted links leading to more data to fill some of the gaps -- that's the most helpful of all. I'll try to answer a few questions that have been asked, before I have to go to work.

What was my original plan? Why did I start collecting the data? Simply because I was frustrated a few months ago by some people who were making unsubstantiated claims about the NMSF numbers at various schools. I can't even remember now the exact context. At the time, I just quickly dug up a few NMSF lists to test whether the DCUM claims I was seeing rang true or not. After I found some good data, I decided to plug it into a spreadsheet rather than just discard it. Over time, I added to the data and it grew into a more extensive set. I did the work to compile the data because I was interested, so why not share with everyone?

Why did I look back 10-11 years? Why not longer? Why not shorter? No particular reason. I just started gathering data for various years. As the data extended beyond 10 years ago, I lost interest and figured no one else would care. If others want more data in the spreadsheet, just post the data with a substantiating link. I'm happy to add it. On the other side of the question, I can see the argument that more recent years might be more relevant, but there's just not that much data in recent years right now. Once people can point me to full data sets for recent years, then I'm happy to add percentage calculations for other date ranges. In actuality though, I don't think most schools really change that much over a short period like 10 years -- that's not even long enough for one child to make it all the way from K through 12.

Why is data missing for some years? Did I purposefully select certain years? I did not purposefully select or deselect any years. I included all credible data I could find. If particular schools in the spreadsheet lack data for certain years, it's because I simply have not been able to find data for those years yet. Help me out by finding and posting data!

What conclusions do I draw from these numbers? I'm not trying to suggest anything about any school by posting this data. I just offer it up so that other parents who care about such things can look at actual data, and not have to rely on rumors and other unsubstantiated claims about how different schools compare.

Enjoy the data, and please keep posting links to more! Thanks.



The key question asked by a couple of posters, that you have not yet answered, is how did you arrive at the percentages? What was your methodology? Which years and data points did you include or exclude for which institutions and why, in the numerator and denominator? For example, An eyeball calculation of percentages for the last 5 years of your raw data (as compared to 10 to 11 years) for STA alone; Blair Magnet and TJ produce numbers that support the claim that TJ and Blair Magnet have a statistically significantly higher number of NMFs than STA; and both the former schools have a sizeable portion of their classes (> 40 percent) that are NMF over the last 5 years compared to STA. That message is very different from the one you are attempting to convery by playing with averages/percentages over a range where the data set is incomplete and full of holes. How did you treat the missing data points when you computed your averages and percents? Looking at all the links and your raw data how can anyone not escape the conclusion that the performance of Blair magnet and TJ has been steady and consistent--in fact with an upward slope. Whereas the slope of the curve for STA and other privates is downward over the years. That is the informative message. Why is the slope of STA going in opposite directions the slope for TJ and Blair magnet (with the correct denominator for the separate magnet program)? Is this contemporary 5 year trend for both groups of school explained away by pure chance alone? ..or is there another explanation?

Some prospective parents and students are interested in these current trends? You can't whitewash or bias these trends with "wool over the eye" analytic methods such as grouping 5 to 10 years of raw data and missing data points that churn out the respectable average or percentage you are seeking. This trick is used by many institutions to convey information about exmissions to colleges that was not necessary 20 or 30 years ago when schools like STA had a preferential pipeline to the Ivies and other fine institutions of higher learning.

Your noble effort to randomly plug in data from newspapers and web sites doesn't excuse you from explaining your methods if you proceed to use this raw data for analysis. You were better off just posting the raw data as is without attempting an analysis that simply betrayed you bias or objectivity.
Anonymous
Wow - 15:09 you are really a little nutty. I assume you are the same TJ booster from the STA thread. I hope your son is able to live up to your expectations. Woe is him if he is not a NMSF.
Anonymous
PS - the link was to a spreadsheet. The formulas are clearly visible. just click on the cell and you will see exactly how it is calculated.
Anonymous
Wow - 15:09 you are really a little nutty. I assume you are the same TJ booster from the STA thread. I hope your son is able to live up to your expectations. Woe is him if he is not a NMSF.


15:09 here. I do not live in Virginia and definetely have no plans of moving there. I would not know how to get to TJ without my GPS. I have never visited the school and have no connections to the school. All my high school connections are from another part of the country. My unbiased observations are that TJ has 4 fold more NMFs than any school, private or public, in this area. Do you have a problem with that observation?

Forum Index » Private & Independent Schools
Go to: