Analysis of Percentage of National Merit Semifinalists at Different Schools

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You bet. The words of a detractor sometimes makes the most powerful argument.

Hardly. The data proves that TJ has amassed the best and the brightest students in one of the wealthiest and best educated counties in the country. I suspect most of these kids would get the same test results in whatever school they were in. I'm sure they are getting a fabulous and free education. But that doesn't detract from other schools. TJ is a great option if you live in VA and have a brilliant child interested in science, math, tech. If you don't then you need to look at other options. No need to denigrate those other options either on this thread of the STA thread.

[Anonymous]

Hardly. The data proves that TJ has amassed the best and the brightest students in one of the wealthiest and best educated counties in the country. I suspect most of these kids would get the same test results in whatever school they were in. I'm sure they are getting a fabulous and free education. But that doesn't detract from other schools. TJ is a great option if you live in VA and have a brilliant child interested in science, math, tech. If you don't then you need to look at other options. No need to denigrate those other options either on this thread of the STA thread.

What thread are you reading about Virginia and State residence? I sorry you feel someone is denigrating your place of residence. This thread is not about State residence. Try the Geo Bee competition for your post.

[Anonymous]

The discussion, in case you missed it, does not revolve around corporate, political and financial leaders (or job employment and social connections), but around quantifiable measures of a STA education compared to a free public one as TJ or the Blair magnet program. The measured endpoints are PSAT, SAT/ACT (multiple choice) and AP scores (written and critical thinking) -- nationally administered instruments. This discussion was fueled by the observation that the public TJ and the Blair Magnet Program had 4 fold the number of National Merit Finalists than STA and other private schools in this region -- approximating 40 percent of each class. It was unclear whether this outstanding performance on PSAT exams (I gather these are in preparation for later SAT exams and provides the basis for academic scholarship support to attend college) translated to the SAT and ACT, subject SAT exams and the AP examinations that students in AP and honours courses take across the land. This sterling performance continues throughout the TJ high school educational experience. There is no data for comparison available for STA. The endpoints chosen do not paint the full educational picture but represent quantifiable measures adopted at most high schools across the educational high school landscape.

I provide this summary of the recent discussion on bifurcated threads for the previous poster who appears lost in space reeling like a drunkard from one baseless accusation to another.

[SAM2]

Anonymous wrote:This discussion was fueled by the observation that the public TJ and the Blair Magnet Program had 4 fold the number of National Merit Finalists than STA and other private schools in this region -- approximating 40 percent of each class.

I'd like to avoid getting involved in any of this "TJ is better" squabble, but this sort of claim is precisely the reason I created the NMSF spreadsheet. Claiming that "approximately 40%" of each class at TJ is NMSF is simply false. Looking at the last 10 years of data, the figure is about 34%. Even if you look at only the last 5 years of data, it's still only 34%. You can manipulate the numbers to get close to 40% only if you take the absolute best year TJ ever had (167 NMSFs in 2006, before it slid down in recent years), and compare that high total to the absolute smallest class size (current seniors, as compared to much bigger junior and sophomore classes). And even then, the total is only about 38%.

Similarly, the claim that TJ & Blair have "4 fold the number of National Merit Finalists than STA and other private schools in this region" is misleading at best. On a pure numbers basis, TJ & Blair do have many more NMSFs (approx 153 and 44 per year), but they also each have over 1000 students. That's more students in each senior class than most private schools have in the entire high school.

None if this is meant to take away from TJ & Blair. Both are great programs. All the local privates are great schools too. But you should be able to argue that they're great programs without bullshitting the data.

[Anonymous]

SAM2 wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Similarly, the claim that TJ & Blair have "4 fold the number of National Merit Finalists than STA and other private schools in this region" is misleading at best. On a pure numbers basis, TJ & Blair do have many more NMSFs (approx 153 and 44 per year), but they also each have over 1000 students. That's more students in each senior class than most private schools have in the entire high school.

I'm not making the claim, but it's not misleading -- it gets to size of cohort and there's are real differences between being at a school where 152 vs. 43 vs. 3 of your classmates are also NMSFs. By contrast, % isn't something you necessarily experience -- if, for example, there are 10 NMSFs and the kids take the same advanced classes together, then it may not matter (from an educational standpoint) how many non-NMSF seniors are also in your graduating class.

And to say TJ has 153 NMSFs out of over 1000 students actually is misleading because 3/4 of those kids are categorically ineligible for NMSF status at this point. Odds are that the number of NMSFs in that group of 1000+ will quadruple by the time all of those kids have become seniors.

I'm don't have a dog in the TJ vs StA fight and we live in DC and wouldn't move to VA for TJ, so this isn't boosterism. How you parse the data is a function of the questions you're asking and absolute numbers matter -- that's peer group and it matters both educationally (critical mass for certain kinds of class/programs, kids challenging each other, isolation vs. integration) and from a college admissions standpoint.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I must admit that I find this thread simply bizzare. TJ and STA are fundamentally different animals. TJ may have more NMSF, but so what. TJ is a public school in NoVa that focuses on the sciences, and that is great. Note its name and history as well as its eligibility requirements. Its creation was terrific idea by the technology oriented businesses in NoVa. STA is a traditional structured all-boys schools that is extremely strong in English, history, etc. with a long history of stressing public service. Though long welcoming students of all faiths, STA has certain religious requirements that are broadly mainstream Christian. The only people who should care about the TJ-STA differences are possibly those living in or willing to move to NoVa and who believe that both TJ and STA would be good fits for their sons and realistically could get admitted. My guess is that the number of boys falling into the latter category for any particular grade could be counted on no more than a few hands at most.

If STA is extremely strong in English, history, etc., than a higher percentage of our boys shouldn't have any problem demonstrating this superior knowledge on the PSAT, SAT I & IIs, and AP exams. The PSAT consists of three sections: critical reading skills, writing, math problem solving skills, it doesn't sound like its tech heavy. For the last several years, at parent meetings, the lower school's curriculum head continuously brags about the strength of STA's math program. Interestingly enough, many STA boys prep for the PSAT.

If I remember correctly, our Beauvoir boys took an i q exam, submitted ERB scores, and STA administered to them an abilities test. There were boys in our class who were out and out rejected due to low test scores. What was the point of all this admissions testing?

To compete for college admission, high test scores are a necessity, unless you have a hook. Not bashing, just questioning. Isn't STA a college prep school?

[Anonymous]

I'd like to avoid getting involved in any of this "TJ is better" squabble, but this sort of claim is precisely the reason I created the NMSF spreadsheet. Claiming that "approximately 40%" of each class at TJ is NMSF is simply false. Looking at the last 10 years of data, the figure is about 34%. Even if you look at only the last 5 years of data, it's still only 34%. You can manipulate the numbers to get close to 40% only if you take the absolute best year TJ ever had (167 NMSFs in 2006, before it slid down in recent years), and compare that high total to the absolute smallest class size (current seniors, as compared to much bigger junior and sophomore classes). And even then, the total is only about 38%.

Similarly, the claim that TJ & Blair have "4 fold the number of National Merit Finalists than STA and other private schools in this region" is misleading at best. On a pure numbers basis, TJ & Blair do have many more NMSFs (approx 153 and 44 per year), but they also each have over 1000 students. That's more students in each senior class than most private schools have in the entire high school.

None if this is meant to take away from TJ & Blair. Both are great programs. All the local privates are great schools too. But you should be able to argue that they're great programs without bullshitting the data.

Ms spreadsheet: Give us the NMF percentages for Sidwell and STA over the las 5 years? Do you have this data?

[SAM2]

Anonymous wrote:Ms spreadsheet: Give us the NMF percentages for Sidwell and STA over the las 5 years? Do you have this data?

I added columns that show NMSF % for the most recent 3-year, 6-year, and 9-year periods (in addition to the total % that already was there). I personally think limiting the calculations to more recent periods makes the results even less useful than they already were, because many schools have significant data gaps. I also think very few schools change materially over a 10-15 year period -- indeed, none of the final percentages seems to shift very significantly. Nevertheless, I am in favor of more data than less. Enjoy.

[Anonymous]

I added columns that show NMSF % for the most recent 3-year, 6-year, and 9-year periods (in addition to the total % that already was there). I personally think limiting the calculations to more recent periods makes the results even less useful than they already were, because many schools have significant data gaps. I also think very few schools change materially over a 10-15 year period -- indeed, none of the final percentages seems to shift very significantly. Nevertheless, I am in favor of more data than less. Enjoy.

WOW, YOU ROCK!!! Therefore there is no significant difference between the number of NMFs at TJ and BLAIR Magnet versus STA. Q.E.D.

Thanks for the information. I thought I was going to have to move.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I must admit that I find this thread simply bizzare. TJ and STA are fundamentally different animals. TJ may have more NMSF, but so what. TJ is a public school in NoVa that focuses on the sciences, and that is great. Note its name and history as well as its eligibility requirements. Its creation was terrific idea by the technology oriented businesses in NoVa. STA is a traditional structured all-boys schools that is extremely strong in English, history, etc. with a long history of stressing public service. Though long welcoming students of all faiths, STA has certain religious requirements that are broadly mainstream Christian. The only people who should care about the TJ-STA differences are possibly those living in or willing to move to NoVa and who believe that both TJ and STA would be good fits for their sons and realistically could get admitted. My guess is that the number of boys falling into the latter category for any particular grade could be counted on no more than a few hands at most.

If STA is extremely strong in English, history, etc., than a higher percentage of our boys shouldn't have any problem demonstrating this superior knowledge on the PSAT, SAT I & IIs, and AP exams. The PSAT consists of three sections: critical reading skills, writing, math problem solving skills, it doesn't sound like its tech heavy. For the last several years, at parent meetings, the lower school's curriculum head continuously brags about the strength of STA's math program. Interestingly enough, many STA boys prep for the PSAT.


To compete for college admission, high test scores are a necessity, unless you have a hook. Not bashing, just questioning. Isn't STA a college prep school?

If the only reason you are at STA is to get your son into Havard, then I am sorry you are missing the missing what I uunderstand to be the wonderful quualitries of an STA eduucation.

[Anonymous]

If the only reason you are at STA is to get your son into Havard, then I am sorry you are missing the missing what I uunderstand to be the wonderful quualitries of an STA eduucation

If the only school your STA child gained admission to was University of Maryland I doubt you would make such a statement.

[Anonymous]

UMD is not for STA boys. It's for public school kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I must admit that I find this thread simply bizzare. TJ and STA are fundamentally different animals. TJ may have more NMSF, but so what. TJ is a public school in NoVa that focuses on the sciences, and that is great. Note its name and history as well as its eligibility requirements. Its creation was terrific idea by the technology oriented businesses in NoVa. STA is a traditional structured all-boys schools that is extremely strong in English, history, etc. with a long history of stressing public service. Though long welcoming students of all faiths, STA has certain religious requirements that are broadly mainstream Christian. The only people who should care about the TJ-STA differences are possibly those living in or willing to move to NoVa and who believe that both TJ and STA would be good fits for their sons and realistically could get admitted. My guess is that the number of boys falling into the latter category for any particular grade could be counted on no more than a few hands at most.

If STA is extremely strong in English, history, etc., than a higher percentage of our boys shouldn't have any problem demonstrating this superior knowledge on the PSAT, SAT I & IIs, and AP exams. The PSAT consists of three sections: critical reading skills, writing, math problem solving skills, it doesn't sound like its tech heavy. For the last several years, at parent meetings, the lower school's curriculum head continuously brags about the strength of STA's math program. Interestingly enough, many STA boys prep for the PSAT.


To compete for college admission, high test scores are a necessity, unless you have a hook. Not bashing, just questioning. Isn't STA a college prep school?

If the only reason you are at STA is to get your son into Havard, then I am sorry you are missing the missing what I uunderstand to be the wonderful quualitries of an STA eduucation.

Of course not, my son attends STA because I'm prepping him for the University of Wisconsin. Bottle empty?

[Anonymous]

UMD is not for STA boys. It's for public school kids

What State universities do STA graduates attend, if any?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UMD is not for STA boys. It's for public school kids.

snob.