Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.

Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...

Anonymous wrote:Interesting.. A different picture indeed than what the MoCo haters here have been saying loudly about the county.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Interesting.. A different picture indeed than what the MoCo haters here have been saying loudly about the county.

As a moco owner and pessimist, happy to see this and happy to admit when I'm wrong!

There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.

Anonymous wrote:

There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.

+1 This X 100. Plus once you add in the impact of not being able to deduct your local taxes, good chance that local taxes will increase and problems with the school system, MoCo is a hard sell. Now is the market healthier than fly over city whose one main employer had left? Sure in this comparison it looks great. How does MoCo compare to NOVA? Not good at all.

Realtors also define successful very differently from sellers and buyers. For realtors it is CRITICAL to maintain hyper and push the most number of transactions possible. They don't really care if someone in Potomac lost 200K selling their house as long as they get commission on 1M.

If an area has a increased number of sales, this is not necessarily a sign of market health for the sellers just the realtors. When highly paid people decide to leave an area and move to another areas this is not good for the area being left BUT realtors are happy because they get more listings. When a retiree bubble bursts and they start flooding the market, realtors get more listings. It drives the property values down but realtors delight that the number of sales is up.

Realtors have many ways to inflate appearances. The practice of delisting and resisting is a complete sham. Practically speaking it only helps sellers attract people who would not look at a house if they saw how many days it was on the market in the Redfin or Zillow picture. Every buyer who is interested in the house is going to see the how many times it has been in the market in the history listing. Realtors push the delisting to change DOM so they can promote that they sold a house in 2 weeks, screw with the data and entice more sellers to enter the market because things are now selling fast or entice buyers to buy now because houses are selling in two weeks. My other favorite data point game is choosing to measure appreciation from the low point in the market. If you look at MOCO from 2007-2008 from 2017-2018 you get a much different picture than if you look at MOCO from 2010-2018.