MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I am normally very impressed with MoCo real estate. Last summer 4 houses close to mine(one next to mine) sold the same day or while they were "coming soon," and for more money. Outside of beltway. This summer, not so much. One house has been sitting on the market since May, and now they lowered the price by almost 50K, the other one is sitting and I get why, they overpriced ti by at least 45K. The other houses in nearby subdivisions, are also taking longer to sell. There is a huge house with 3 acres that is selling for 740K, except it is not selling at all. So, maybe haters of MoCo from NoVa are right, at least for this year.

This X100. Plus the GCAR data in May showed sales were down. So yeah after the low spring sales, price drops and delistings, July will look like it had higher sales than LAST July and that inventory dropped. The inventory drop is just people delisting that didn't sell. I hate how realtors present and cherry pick data to pump up a market. So gross and sleazy.

The house down the street from us sold for 1.2 M. The sellers had been trying to sell it since 2017. They bought it in 2003 for 1.4 M and sunk $$$ updating it. This is happening to all the large houses over 1M whether they are updated or not. However, a 1.2M house will raise the median sales price without revealing that it was a major loss in property value for the seller.

The only houses that I see moving quickly are ones in the low 800s-700s in good school districts or ones in mediocre school districts 600 or under.

Just out of curiosity, but where in MoCo do you find <600 houses that aren't in horrible conditions? Silver Spring? It certainly isn't on the 270 corridor unless you're going up past urbana?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I am normally very impressed with MoCo real estate. Last summer 4 houses close to mine(one next to mine) sold the same day or while they were "coming soon," and for more money. Outside of beltway. This summer, not so much. One house has been sitting on the market since May, and now they lowered the price by almost 50K, the other one is sitting and I get why, they overpriced ti by at least 45K. The other houses in nearby subdivisions, are also taking longer to sell. There is a huge house with 3 acres that is selling for 740K, except it is not selling at all. So, maybe haters of MoCo from NoVa are right, at least for this year.

This X100. Plus the GCAR data in May showed sales were down. So yeah after the low spring sales, price drops and delistings, July will look like it had higher sales than LAST July and that inventory dropped. The inventory drop is just people delisting that didn't sell. I hate how realtors present and cherry pick data to pump up a market. So gross and sleazy.

The house down the street from us sold for 1.2 M. The sellers had been trying to sell it since 2017. They bought it in 2003 for 1.4 M and sunk $$$ updating it. This is happening to all the large houses over 1M whether they are updated or not. However, a 1.2M house will raise the median sales price without revealing that it was a major loss in property value for the seller.

The only houses that I see moving quickly are ones in the low 800s-700s in good school districts or ones in mediocre school districts 600 or under.

Just out of curiosity, but where in MoCo do you find <600 houses that aren't in horrible conditions? Silver Spring? It certainly isn't on the 270 corridor unless you're going up past urbana?

DP. Parts of Rockville, for example - you can find a small house in West End Park for 600K and less. Here's one: https://www.redfin.com/MD/Rockville/537-Brent-Rd-20850/home/10514409

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:According to DCUM, MoCo is a desolate wasteland full of MS13 members and empty McMansions sitting on the market for pennies. [/quote

hahahaha


this forum is full of NOVA ppl

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I am normally very impressed with MoCo real estate. Last summer 4 houses close to mine(one next to mine) sold the same day or while they were "coming soon," and for more money. Outside of beltway. This summer, not so much. One house has been sitting on the market since May, and now they lowered the price by almost 50K, the other one is sitting and I get why, they overpriced ti by at least 45K. The other houses in nearby subdivisions, are also taking longer to sell. There is a huge house with 3 acres that is selling for 740K, except it is not selling at all. So, maybe haters of MoCo from NoVa are right, at least for this year.

This X100. Plus the GCAR data in May showed sales were down. So yeah after the low spring sales, price drops and delistings, July will look like it had higher sales than LAST July and that inventory dropped. The inventory drop is just people delisting that didn't sell. I hate how realtors present and cherry pick data to pump up a market. So gross and sleazy.

The house down the street from us sold for 1.2 M. The sellers had been trying to sell it since 2017. They bought it in 2003 for 1.4 M and sunk $$$ updating it. This is happening to all the large houses over 1M whether they are updated or not. However, a 1.2M house will raise the median sales price without revealing that it was a major loss in property value for the seller.

The only houses that I see moving quickly are ones in the low 800s-700s in good school districts or ones in mediocre school districts 600 or under.

Just out of curiosity, but where in MoCo do you find <600 houses that aren't in horrible conditions? Silver Spring? It certainly isn't on the 270 corridor unless you're going up past urbana?

DP. Parts of Rockville, for example - you can find a small house in West End Park for 600K and less. Here's one: https://www.redfin.com/MD/Rockville/537-Brent-Rd-20850/home/10514409

Gaithersburg zoned for QO (perfectly good school, though DCUM likes to bash it bc it isn’t a “W” school) has plenty of nice neighborhoods with homes at or around $600k. The ones in good condition are under contract in days. Here’s an example https://www.redfin.com/MD/North-Potomac/12016-Apple-Knoll-Ct-20878/home/10608946

[Anonymous]

Gaithersburg zoned for QO (perfectly good school, though DCUM likes to bash it bc it isn’t a “W” school) has plenty of nice neighborhoods with homes at or around $600k. The ones in good condition are under contract in days. Here’s an example https://www.redfin.com/MD/North-Potomac/12016-Apple-Knoll-Ct-20878/home/10608946

Argh! This is a PERFECT example of being dishonest like the realtors. This house did NOT go under contract in days. It went on the market in May, delisted in June and was then re-listed with a price cut at 573K, a month later in July it price dropped again to 559K and THEN it went under contract with a contingency for the buyer to sell their home.

Look I like this house. The sellers sunk A LOT of money into and basically had upgraded everything from the roof to the windows to flooring to the kitchen to all the bathrooms. It is a good value IMO for 570K, nice area, and QO is fine. It is NOT a hot market though and this house certainly did not go under contract in days.

The buyer is probably trying sell a TH somewhere in Germantown or Gaithersburg where the market isn't good either. Chances are that this house may be back on the market if the buyers sale does not go through in whatever timeframe the contract included.

[Anonymous]

You can find home in Kensington and Forest Glen zoned for Einstein, within walking distance to MARC or Metro, that are zoned for Einstein for $600k. Einstein is not a top tier school, but neither are a lot of schools in NoVa that people are paying well over $800k for (zoned for Wakefield, TC Williams, etc)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I am normally very impressed with MoCo real estate. Last summer 4 houses close to mine(one next to mine) sold the same day or while they were "coming soon," and for more money. Outside of beltway. This summer, not so much. One house has been sitting on the market since May, and now they lowered the price by almost 50K, the other one is sitting and I get why, they overpriced ti by at least 45K. The other houses in nearby subdivisions, are also taking longer to sell. There is a huge house with 3 acres that is selling for 740K, except it is not selling at all. So, maybe haters of MoCo from NoVa are right, at least for this year.

This X100. Plus the GCAR data in May showed sales were down. So yeah after the low spring sales, price drops and delistings, July will look like it had higher sales than LAST July and that inventory dropped. The inventory drop is just people delisting that didn't sell. I hate how realtors present and cherry pick data to pump up a market. So gross and sleazy.

The house down the street from us sold for 1.2 M. The sellers had been trying to sell it since 2017. They bought it in 2003 for 1.4 M and sunk $$$ updating it. This is happening to all the large houses over 1M whether they are updated or not. However, a 1.2M house will raise the median sales price without revealing that it was a major loss in property value for the seller.

The only houses that I see moving quickly are ones in the low 800s-700s in good school districts or ones in mediocre school districts 600 or under.

Just out of curiosity, but where in MoCo do you find <600 houses that aren't in horrible conditions? Silver Spring? It certainly isn't on the 270 corridor unless you're going up past urbana?

You’re going to have to tell us what you think “aren’t in horrible conditions” means, because I and nearly everyone I know (North Kensington) lives in houses less than $600k. Lots of us have renovated kitchens and baths, nice floors, decks and patios, etc. What I’m hearing here is a circular argument: “there aren’t any nice houses out there for less than $600k, because I’m defining a nice house as a house iworth more than $600k.”

The median single family home price for the county is $526k: https://gcaar.com/docs/default-source/montgomery-county-market-reports/gcaar-mc-housing-market-update---january-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=7735fe93_2

Is it your assertion that all houses under $600 (so, a majority of all houses) are in horrible conditions?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Gaithersburg zoned for QO (perfectly good school, though DCUM likes to bash it bc it isn’t a “W” school) has plenty of nice neighborhoods with homes at or around $600k. The ones in good condition are under contract in days. Here’s an example https://www.redfin.com/MD/North-Potomac/12016-Apple-Knoll-Ct-20878/home/10608946

Argh! This is a PERFECT example of being dishonest like the realtors. This house did NOT go under contract in days. It went on the market in May, delisted in June and was then re-listed with a price cut at 573K, a month later in July it price dropped again to 559K and THEN it went under contract with a contingency for the buyer to sell their home.

Yes, realtors are falsifying days-on-market by fake delisting and relisting. But I can't say I blame them, because DOM is an insufficiently nuanced figure. If a house went on the market in June for, say, 1.2M, and after a price drop or two or three it's now at 999K, it's arguably in a different market (segment).

[Anonymous]

DOM is rampantly used by realtors to inflate their own numbers and control perception. They delist and resist to reset not only the DOM but to set a new original list price. This way they can promote themselves as selling their listings within a short time period AND close to list price. When you see GCAR data claiming that properties sold within x% of list price it is total BS because of this common practice.

The DOM game screws up inventory reporting numbers too. Sellers with houses that are not selling are advised to take the house off the market and resist after the deadline period. This is to reset the DOM and reset the original price. It also gives a false impression of low inventory.

Lets look at median price now. It is meaningless when applied to a larger area.

Take a hypothetical situation where Bethesda becomes very unpopular with rich people for whatever reason. They all start listing their houses and leaving. Prices drop 1/3 of their value. The houses are selling for 1M instead of 1.5M. You would expect this to show up as a huge reduction in median house price right? Wrong. If the volume of 1M sales went up significantly in comparison with surrounding low prices houses in the 500-600s then the median price could actually go up even though the Bethesda sellers are losing 1/3 their value. Median value is very tied to which areas in the county are driving the sales. Median does not measure appreciation in markets that have price segmentation.

Lets try price per sq footage then. This should provide more norming right? Wrong. Realtors have gotten awful in inflating square footage. They protect themselves by simply saying it is an estimate or provided by home owners. It used to be that realtors never would list sq footage that was below ground or unfinished. Not anymore.

How about looking at number of bedrooms? This is another data point that realtors fudge now all the time. It used to be that they never listed rooms that didn't meet requirements for being a bedroom but you see 4 bedroom houses listed as 5 bedrooms all the time. 1 bedrooms with dens become 2 bedrooms etc.

GCAR data sucks but realtors like it that way because they can fudge their own numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I am normally very impressed with MoCo real estate. Last summer 4 houses close to mine(one next to mine) sold the same day or while they were "coming soon," and for more money. Outside of beltway. This summer, not so much. One house has been sitting on the market since May, and now they lowered the price by almost 50K, the other one is sitting and I get why, they overpriced ti by at least 45K. The other houses in nearby subdivisions, are also taking longer to sell. There is a huge house with 3 acres that is selling for 740K, except it is not selling at all. So, maybe haters of MoCo from NoVa are right, at least for this year.

This X100. Plus the GCAR data in May showed sales were down. So yeah after the low spring sales, price drops and delistings, July will look like it had higher sales than LAST July and that inventory dropped. The inventory drop is just people delisting that didn't sell. I hate how realtors present and cherry pick data to pump up a market. So gross and sleazy.

The house down the street from us sold for 1.2 M. The sellers had been trying to sell it since 2017. They bought it in 2003 for 1.4 M and sunk $$$ updating it. This is happening to all the large houses over 1M whether they are updated or not. However, a 1.2M house will raise the median sales price without revealing that it was a major loss in property value for the seller.

The only houses that I see moving quickly are ones in the low 800s-700s in good school districts or ones in mediocre school districts 600 or under.

Just out of curiosity, but where in MoCo do you find <600 houses that aren't in horrible conditions? Silver Spring? It certainly isn't on the 270 corridor unless you're going up past urbana?

You’re going to have to tell us what you think “aren’t in horrible conditions” means, because I and nearly everyone I know (North Kensington) lives in houses less than $600k. Lots of us have renovated kitchens and baths, nice floors, decks and patios, etc. What I’m hearing here is a circular argument: “there aren’t any nice houses out there for less than $600k, because I’m defining a nice house as a house iworth more than $600k.”

The median single family home price for the county is $526k: https://gcaar.com/docs/default-source/montgomery-county-market-reports/gcaar-mc-housing-market-update---january-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=7735fe93_2

Is it your assertion that all houses under $600 (so, a majority of all houses) are in horrible conditions?

I'm the PP who you are addressing. That is great info, thanks. I don't have a horse in this race as I live in Gaithersburg (near Rio) and it has been my experience. Perhaps it's more specific to the area where I live which straddles the Wooton/QO district (and while QO is certainly not at the W/PHS standard, it's not a bad school). The prices in this area tend to be closer to 700 on average with improvements to be made. If you're looking at coveted neighborhoods, that goes up from there.