Swamis: How will economic impact of COVID change college admissions prospects in 5+ years

[Anonymous]

I know there's a lot going on in the world & at colleges & universities - but interested to think about how this is going to impact college admissions and dynamics moving forward.

Swamis (and analysts): Any predictions?



From Politico today:

UNPRECEDENTED FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY LOOMS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION — More than halfway into the fall semester, the nation’s colleges and universities continue to grapple with preventing and responding to Covid-19 outbreaks on their campuses. The results have been mixed as some schools manage in-person instruction with relatively few disruptions while major spikes at other schools shut down campuses once again.
— But beyond the immediate public health concerns, a large swath of the nation’s colleges are in a state of uncertainty about their fiscal health. Universities with multibillion-dollar endowments surely will ride out the pandemic relatively unscathed. But the majority that depend heavily on tuition revenue or state appropriations are staring down major financial obstacles.
— “This is orders of magnitude worse for higher ed than the Great Recession,” Robert Kelchen, professor of higher education at Seton Hall University, told Morning Education. Fewer students are enrolling overall in higher education while colleges face higher costs for virtual learning and campus safety measures. Colleges are also losing out on large chunks of so-called auxiliary revenue — money they bring in from services like housing and dining — which can comprise as much as 25 percent of some colleges’ operating budgets. And state budget cuts are either on the table or have already happened in some states.

[Anonymous]

No more or reduced standardized testing.

More kids staying closer to home.

Less kids wanting to live on campus

Harder for expensive private schools to make the case that their program is worth the money if it's all on line (exception might be T20 schools).

Less idealization of the "college experience" and more reality checking for kids and the money spent

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No more or reduced standardized testing.

More kids staying closer to home.

Less kids wanting to live on campus

Harder for expensive private schools to make the case that their program is worth the money if it's all on line (exception might be T20 schools).

Less idealization of the "college experience" and more reality checking for kids and the money spent

I agree with the PP. Our class of 2021 DD started her college list with all SLACs and smaller universities - most of them a plane ride away.
She just applied to Barrett Honors at ASU for exactly what the PP said - not worth the money if all online anyway, and now she's leery about being too far from home.
She has great stats so likely to get a decent amount of options, but she said her state school is looking better and better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No more or reduced standardized testing.

More kids staying closer to home.

Less kids wanting to live on campus

Harder for expensive private schools to make the case that their program is worth the money if it's all on line (exception might be T20 schools).

Less idealization of the "college experience" and more reality checking for kids and the money spent

In other words, like the rest of the world..

[Anonymous]

There will be less tuition (and student fees) collected. Schools will begin dropping sports, less popular departments and stop renovations/construction. So, the very thing an applicant was looking for may be gone.

Agree, more people staying close to home and completing more credits at community college or online. More people living off-campus. Less study abroad.

Maybe more students working for a year or two before college. More part-time degrees.

[Anonymous]

Acceptance rates will go up for all, except for Ivys and other top 10 schools. Institutions will err on the side of over-enrollment and have to deal with that issue rather than risk low yields and resulting under-enrollment. The latter would be a self inflicted wound, if not life support/death.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Acceptance rates will go up for all, except for Ivys and other top 10 schools. Institutions will err on the side of over-enrollment and have to deal with that issue rather than risk low yields and resulting under-enrollment. The latter would be a self inflicted wound, if not life support/death.

I think ivies acceptance rates will go up too. Not a lot, a percentage point or two, but not go down.

[Anonymous]

Tuition will have to keep going up. 2021-2022 likely to be a big jump. Sorry for the students who took a year off then forced to pay 5-10% more next year.

Wonder about transfers too.

[Anonymous]

State flagships and top state schools will become even more competitive as they will be the popular choice for high stats in-state students.

[Anonymous]

If a vaccine is approved and available to general population by end of 2021, I think schools will just admit more overseas students at full pay. Not sure that we are going to experience a drop off in demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No more or reduced standardized testing.

More kids staying closer to home.

Less kids wanting to live on campus

Harder for expensive private schools to make the case that their program is worth the money if it's all on line (exception might be T20 schools).

Less idealization of the "college experience" and more reality checking for kids and the money spent

In other words, like the rest of the world..

Except the rest of the world doesn't pay the money we do for college. So, no. Not like the rest of the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:State flagships and top state schools will become even more competitive as they will be the popular choice for high stats in-state students.

Agreed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If a vaccine is approved and available to general population by end of 2021, I think schools will just admit more overseas students at full pay. Not sure that we are going to experience a drop off in demand.

Agreed

[Anonymous]

Upper income parents merit scholarships may be reduced. Or based off tuition, room and board.

Case on point daughter got 17k merit award off tuition for a out of state school with expensive dorms and meal plan.

She is remote not paying dorms or meal plans. Now her room mate and her on line group are renting an apt sophomore year as going either way. So school will never get firm or meal plan money

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:State flagships and top state schools will become even more competitive as they will be the popular choice for high stats in-state students.

Agreed.

Totally disagree. Kids are even more desperate to get away. Next year schools will have to open or go broke