Study suggests college can safely open with frequent testing

[Anonymous]

Article from the Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/students-can-safely-return-to-college-if-tested-for-coronavirus-every-two-days-study-says/2020/07/31/a4316db0-d27f-11ea-af07-1d058ca137ae_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_yale-study-1140a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

The study, by researchers from the Yale School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association Open Network, used computer simulations to show how the virus might spread among a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 students.

In the simulations, 4,990 students were assumed to be coronavirus-free, while 10 were assumed to be infected. Researchers found screening every two days using a rapid, inexpensive test — even one that was not always accurate — would “maintain a controllable number of covid-19 infections” if coupled with “strict behavioral interventions” like quarantining positive students in isolation dormitories.

The study estimated screening costs would be $470 per student per semester, and did not consider the effects of reopening schools on staff and communities where colleges are located. It also said monitoring students for symptoms was not sufficient, and logistical challenges like the availability of tests or isolation dormitories “may be beyond the reach of many university administrators and the students in their care.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Article from the Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/students-can-safely-return-to-college-if-tested-for-coronavirus-every-two-days-study-says/2020/07/31/a4316db0-d27f-11ea-af07-1d058ca137ae_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_yale-study-1140a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

The study, by researchers from the Yale School of Public Health, Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association Open Network, used computer simulations to show how the virus might spread among a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 students.

In the simulations, 4,990 students were assumed to be coronavirus-free, while 10 were assumed to be infected. Researchers found screening every two days using a rapid, inexpensive test — even one that was not always accurate — would “maintain a controllable number of covid-19 infections” if coupled with “strict behavioral interventions” like quarantining positive students in isolation dormitories.

The study estimated screening costs would be $470 per student per semester, and did not consider the effects of reopening schools on staff and communities where colleges are located. It also said monitoring students for symptoms was not sufficient, and logistical challenges like the availability of tests or isolation dormitories “may be beyond the reach of many university administrators and the students in their care.”

Yale students on campus (undergrads, anyway) will be tested twice weekly. They're not messing around.

[Anonymous]

BU will also be testing everyone 2x a week. They have a lab on campus to process the tests.

[Anonymous]

The headline sounded promising, but so few schools are aiming for this testing rate...at least for now.

My DC's will test upon arrival, and then test a sample of students throughout the quarter. Not sure how many how often.

I feel iike the are all in a giant experiment. Yikes.

[Anonymous]

That’s nice. My kid’s college is planning to test kids via testing kit and then “maybe” they’ll test them once randomly during the semester. So my kid decided not to go.

[Anonymous]

My kid's school is only planning to test those with symptoms and those identified through contact tracing.

They have to answer a COVID questionnaire and report their temperature on an app on a daily basis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The headline sounded promising, but so few schools are aiming for this testing rate...at least for now.

My DC's will test upon arrival, and then test a sample of students throughout the quarter. Not sure how many how often.

I feel iike the are all in a giant experiment. Yikes.

Agree, though some schools are so much better situated to do a scaled back approach. My friend's kid is going to a school in the middle of nowhere that is essentially its own bubble, I believe they are testing at arriving and a few weeks later and then relaxing things quite a bit. Certainly still possible for the virus to make inroads but so much less likely than at the urban school my kid goes to where they need to keep the testing constant because the campus is so porous.

[Anonymous]

You can't jump on 'frequent testing' and then say my college tests twice a week and so we're good. the study says every two days with a rapid result test - and it was a computer simulation. Do these tests exist in sufficient quantity? I know people who've waited 3 weeks for test results in July.

[Anonymous]

"You can't jump on 'frequent testing' and then say my college tests twice a week and so we're good. the study says every two days with a rapid result test - and it was a computer simulation. Do these tests exist in sufficient quantity? I know people who've waited 3 weeks for test results in July."

You would have to read the actual paper to determine what "screening every two days means" Screening can be done by well designed sampling.

Like instead of testing everyone between 8 and 9 am every other day, which is impossible without lining them up in a huge field and everyone swabbing themselves, they would be testing specific students from each floor of each dorm spread over most hours of each day.

That means that a representative sample could be screened several times a day. If that protocol resulted in twice a week for every student rather than every other day, it would likely be fine.

The harder part is the “strict behavioral interventions” like quarantining positive students in isolation dormitories. For example, what about the roommates who live with a positive but don't yet test positive?

[Anonymous]

What areas of the country have the 0.2% positive rates that this model assumes?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What areas of the country have the 0.2% positive rates that this model assumes?

Really good question.

At the start of the semester, the hypothetical cohort of 5000 students included 4990 (99.8%) with no SARS-CoV-2 infection and 10 (0.2%) with SARS-CoV-2 infection

Positivity of returning students is much more likely to be at least 4%. In Florida more like 20%. How would that alter the results of the model?

[Anonymous]

There is no way the big state schools are prepared for opening this fall. I've been reading what the big 10 schools are doing and it's all a hope and a prayer.

[Anonymous]

I think Santa is more likely to deliver a new car to me Christmas Day than most kids will be attending colleges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid's school is only planning to test those with symptoms and those identified through contact tracing.

They have to answer a COVID questionnaire and report their temperature on an app on a daily basis.

How do you feel about this? My son’s is taking the same approach and I am not sure what to think.

[Anonymous]

Here is what the new study concluded:

<<This model did not identify symptom-based screening alone as sufficient to contain an outbreak under any of the scenarios we considered. >>