What is truly going on with the DC area real estate market, please explain?

[Anonymous]

More good news from Israel's vaccination experiment.

[Anonymous]

I think a lot depends on whether DCPS is five days in the fall. Everyone I know is planning to leave for exurbs or other states if no school looks perpetual.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The real estate market is crazy because interest rates are extremely low! 4 years ago, the rates were more than double what they are now. Prices are a direct result of interest rates.

4 years ago interest rates were around 3.5 - 3.8%. Its now 2.9 - 3.1%. Don't kid yourself - the difference isn't that crazy.

Its not like its back to Carter days of 8 - 9%.

Carter days? Try Bush 43 days, when I got what seemed like a great rate of 6.75.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The real estate market is crazy because interest rates are extremely low! 4 years ago, the rates were more than double what they are now. Prices are a direct result of interest rates.

4 years ago interest rates were around 3.5 - 3.8%. Its now 2.9 - 3.1%. Don't kid yourself - the difference isn't that crazy.

Its not like its back to Carter days of 8 - 9%.

I agree with this. I don't think rates are as big a player as everyone is saying. I'd be curious how much demand has actually gone up, vs supply just being terribly low.

I'm going with low supply. My townhome area out in the burbs usually has 2-3 per week on the market by now for spring and there's only been 4 total, all of which were under contract in days. The first one closed in 2 weeks at 80k over comps.. I've also had my eye on two different SFH neighborhoods in the area for the future and there's literally nothing for sale there in either one. Nothing.

[Anonymous]

And wow surprise NYC is back. So to the person who said finance would be forever WFH --- maybe think again.

[Anonymous]

Hate to say this but for a city with a global profile, DC is still pretty cheap.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hate to say this but for a city with a global profile, DC is still pretty cheap.

+1

DC is absurdly cheap. you can get a 4bd townhouse with decent schools in the inner core for 1.5M. This is absurdly cheap for many DC-type buyers.

[Anonymous]

Haven’t really seen signs of life in the market so far this spring in NW DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m new to the DMV. We don’t plan to stay longer than 5 years so we watch the market very closely to ensure we don’t over renovate, etc. Not to hijack this post, but can someone explain to me why homes in CCDC seem to sell at a higher cost per square foot than CCMD. They seem very similar. Or does it come down to being “walkable” to metro and/or the 4 shops on CT? Generally curious.

Having a D.C. address and zip code has better cachet. That's basically it. You see the same thing with Potomac DC versus Potomac MD and the only difference is a dividing invisible line.

Property taxes in D.C. are also substantially lower. We only pay a city tax. Maryland residents pay both county and state at higher rates.

Immediately next to CCDC in MD the houses and the lots are bigger.

As a resident of 20015 I’ve observed the homes across western avenue (as you cross from broad branch) are significantly more expensive and have been since I moved here in 1997. And they pay extra taxes and many still send their kids to the same private schools and their streets aren’t plowed while mine is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And wow surprise NYC is back. So to the person who said finance would be forever WFH --- maybe think again.

They really do wear those vests from Patagonia or Columbia or whatever. How cringe worthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I worked for a member of the DC city Council while in grad school about 20 years ago. The transformation of DC has been breathtaking. Cops use to escort us to evening meetings at schools and now they ate performing well and feel like places of learning. Same with all aspects of the City. I am thrilled

Its not and never called the DC City Council.

Huh? Some of us don’t give a hoot. DP and I’ve lived here 27 years. What are they called ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is also this happening in suburbs. People can't afford Potomac, MD mansions so, they aren't buying them. Hence those prices are...well I have no idea now, but 2 years ago they were not increasing and were actually going down.
But, in areas where houses are 500K, 600K prices and the demand increasing.
Lots more people can afford 650K but not 1M. And this started happening in the summer. My neighborhood could not sell his house that needed updating for 9 months. 2500 sqft. Sold for 530K which was over 80K under the first price. Fast forward a smaller, worse roadhouse sold for 45K over the asking price, for 650K.
Why? Because people can afford 650 instead of 550 easier than 1M.

Maybe because the previous owner was Patrick Swayze?

As in the romantic pottery ghost or the man himself?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is also this happening in suburbs. People can't afford Potomac, MD mansions so, they aren't buying them. Hence those prices are...well I have no idea now, but 2 years ago they were not increasing and were actually going down.
But, in areas where houses are 500K, 600K prices and the demand increasing.
Lots more people can afford 650K but not 1M. And this started happening in the summer. My neighborhood could not sell his house that needed updating for 9 months. 2500 sqft. Sold for 530K which was over 80K under the first price. Fast forward a smaller, worse roadhouse sold for 45K over the asking price, for 650K.
Why? Because people can afford 650 instead of 550 easier than 1M.

Maybe because the previous owner was Patrick Swayze?

As in the romantic pottery ghost or the man himself?

The Roadhouse. The Double Deuce. Who’s with me?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I worked for a member of the DC city Council while in grad school about 20 years ago. The transformation of DC has been breathtaking. Cops use to escort us to evening meetings at schools and now they ate performing well and feel like places of learning. Same with all aspects of the City. I am thrilled

Its not and never called the DC City Council.

Huh? Some of us don’t give a hoot. DP and I’ve lived here 27 years. What are they called ?

DC Council

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hate to say this but for a city with a global profile, DC is still pretty cheap.

+1

DC is absurdly cheap. you can get a 4bd townhouse with decent schools in the inner core for 1.5M. This is absurdly cheap for many DC-type buyers.

Except there aren't that many of the types of buyers you are talking about in DC. It's not a finance town. It's a government town. There is more finance, tech, and venture capital in the DC area than ever before, but when you compare it to the cities you are talking about (NY, London, SF, Tokyo), there's no real comparison. If you work in finance, DC is second tier at best. So while it may seem like a deal to people in those industries, moving here is also almost always a step down professionally (unless it is a temporary relocation focused on a DC specific project or issue), so of course it is cheaper.

And I have a hard time seeing DC making the transformation into a first-tier finance town. I think the heart of DC's economy will always be the fed, which is why the city will always be a combination of lawyers, policy folks, domestic and international NGOs, and federal consultants. Plenty of money, but not the kind you see in those other cities. Which is why you see lots of homes in the inner core that are priced well for a dual-income professional couple with a couple kids they may want to send to private school, but not the kind of astronomical bananas real estate you see in San Francisco or NY. There's no obvious pathway to becoming a young millionaire in DC industry, like there is in those cities.