What is truly going on with the DC area real estate market, please explain?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So Goldman Asia is already at 50% capacity in offices when vaccines were just approved 30 days ago? Yeah. Okay. Let's see what happens by end of 2021 year.

In the memo, which was verified by a bank spokeswoman, Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said Goldman is also considering “the feasibility of testing (staff and visitors for the coronavirus), subject to availability and more information on the accuracy of results.”

Large banks worldwide have been developing plans to gradually return staff to offices after nearly two months of working remotely and from home during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

...did you read any links I posted? Am I arguing with a robot?! (Jokes on me, if so.) Goldman is at 2-3% today, and they plan to ramp up to 50% eventually, with the other 50% of their workforce permanently work from home.

Did you notice that article is 8 months old? If they were at 2% in June 2020 - why would it be the same in February 2021?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another fun test case of this WFH scenario - Israel. The only country in the world with greater than 60% of their population already vaccinated.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-s-economy-will-return-in-april-analysts-say-but-not-to-normal-1.9462514

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-infection-down-vaccination-up-cabinet-to-meet-sunday-658858

“If all goes well, we hope we can open street shops and malls, and start carefully opening cultural shows for which entry will only be allowed for green passport holders,” Health Ministry Director-General Chezy Levy said in a weekend interview with KAN.

The Health Ministry has targeted February 23 as the start of the next phase of its plan, requiring a staged exit as was hoped for in the past, so that the impact of relief can be monitored. Levy said that the country will only fully understand the results of the various reliefs rolled out last week in about 10 days.

I worked in Israel for years. If you strip out tourism, its economy is centered in just 1 city - Tel Aviv - with an MSA population fewer than 1m people, short commutes, and tiny apartments. So no, not a place to draw lessons from in any way.

D.C. is a city of fewer than 1m people, short commutes, and tiny apartments. What are you talking about?

My point was even if your Israeli-based employer tells you that you can work from home forever, you would pretty much have to stay in Tel Aviv (if you wanted to remain in Israel). If your DC-based employer tells you that you can work from home forever, you have 50+ cities with 500k+ population you could move to, just within the US.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So Goldman Asia is already at 50% capacity in offices when vaccines were just approved 30 days ago? Yeah. Okay. Let's see what happens by end of 2021 year.

In the memo, which was verified by a bank spokeswoman, Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said Goldman is also considering “the feasibility of testing (staff and visitors for the coronavirus), subject to availability and more information on the accuracy of results.”

Large banks worldwide have been developing plans to gradually return staff to offices after nearly two months of working remotely and from home during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

...did you read any links I posted? Am I arguing with a robot?! (Jokes on me, if so.) Goldman is at 2-3% today, and they plan to ramp up to 50% eventually, with the other 50% of their workforce permanently work from home.

Did you notice that article is 8 months old? If they were at 2% in June 2020 - why would it be the same in February 2021?

I don't work with Goldman but I work with another bank and their reopening efforts ran smack into the second and third waves of the virus. They are still at the same levels they were back then. Traders are fully remote and everybody seems happy so it's a major ? what will happen next. The CRE market has put a lot of pressure on the banks because it's an existential threat for them. The most bullish move is Amazon buying up huge amounts of space in NYC for their NY-HQ2 because they think young college grads will want to move there no matter what. Facebook has leased some but the other tech companies are not biting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another fun test case of this WFH scenario - Israel. The only country in the world with greater than 60% of their population already vaccinated.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-s-economy-will-return-in-april-analysts-say-but-not-to-normal-1.9462514

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-infection-down-vaccination-up-cabinet-to-meet-sunday-658858

“If all goes well, we hope we can open street shops and malls, and start carefully opening cultural shows for which entry will only be allowed for green passport holders,” Health Ministry Director-General Chezy Levy said in a weekend interview with KAN.

The Health Ministry has targeted February 23 as the start of the next phase of its plan, requiring a staged exit as was hoped for in the past, so that the impact of relief can be monitored. Levy said that the country will only fully understand the results of the various reliefs rolled out last week in about 10 days.

I worked in Israel for years. If you strip out tourism, its economy is centered in just 1 city - Tel Aviv - with an MSA population fewer than 1m people, short commutes, and tiny apartments. So no, not a place to draw lessons from in any way.

D.C. is a city of fewer than 1m people, short commutes, and tiny apartments. What are you talking about?

My point was even if your Israeli-based employer tells you that you can work from home forever, you would pretty much have to stay in Tel Aviv (if you wanted to remain in Israel). If your DC-based employer tells you that you can work from home forever, you have 50+ cities with 500k+ population you could move to, just within the US.

Okay. My question is - are these Israeli companies giving up value office/commercial real estate and allowing the majority of their employees to WFH and Zoom forever - even if they are all in Tel Aviv? Seeing as they are the only country which has implemented a successful vaccination campaign.

Its not just about what options the employees have for leaving (I mean they could just decide to relocate to France with their families), its also about what the companies see as the best option for revenue moving forward.

We should be seeing Israeli answers in March seeing as the broad majority of their population is vaccinated now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So Goldman Asia is already at 50% capacity in offices when vaccines were just approved 30 days ago? Yeah. Okay. Let's see what happens by end of 2021 year.

In the memo, which was verified by a bank spokeswoman, Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said Goldman is also considering “the feasibility of testing (staff and visitors for the coronavirus), subject to availability and more information on the accuracy of results.”

Large banks worldwide have been developing plans to gradually return staff to offices after nearly two months of working remotely and from home during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

...did you read any links I posted? Am I arguing with a robot?! (Jokes on me, if so.) Goldman is at 2-3% today, and they plan to ramp up to 50% eventually, with the other 50% of their workforce permanently work from home.

Did you notice that article is 8 months old? If they were at 2% in June 2020 - why would it be the same in February 2021?

I don't work with Goldman but I work with another bank and their reopening efforts ran smack into the second and third waves of the virus. They are still at the same levels they were back then. Traders are fully remote and everybody seems happy so it's a major ? what will happen next. The CRE market has put a lot of pressure on the banks because it's an existential threat for them. The most bullish move is Amazon buying up huge amounts of space in NYC for their NY-HQ2 because they think young college grads will want to move there no matter what. Facebook has leased some but the other tech companies are not biting.

Thanks - this is interesting. NYU (in New York) and UCLA (in L.A.) also had the largest application season in their history for the 2020-2021 year. So I don't think the young college grads think is wrong. A 15% and 28% increase in applicants says something.

http://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2015/january/record-breaking-60000-students-apply-to-nyu-largest-increase-in-15-years.html

https://abc7.com/ucla-admissions-applications-diversity/10142247/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So Goldman Asia is already at 50% capacity in offices when vaccines were just approved 30 days ago? Yeah. Okay. Let's see what happens by end of 2021 year.

In the memo, which was verified by a bank spokeswoman, Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said Goldman is also considering “the feasibility of testing (staff and visitors for the coronavirus), subject to availability and more information on the accuracy of results.”

Large banks worldwide have been developing plans to gradually return staff to offices after nearly two months of working remotely and from home during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

...did you read any links I posted? Am I arguing with a robot?! (Jokes on me, if so.) Goldman is at 2-3% today, and they plan to ramp up to 50% eventually, with the other 50% of their workforce permanently work from home.

Did you notice that article is 8 months old? If they were at 2% in June 2020 - why would it be the same in February 2021?

I don't work with Goldman but I work with another bank and their reopening efforts ran smack into the second and third waves of the virus. They are still at the same levels they were back then. Traders are fully remote and everybody seems happy so it's a major ? what will happen next. The CRE market has put a lot of pressure on the banks because it's an existential threat for them. The most bullish move is Amazon buying up huge amounts of space in NYC for their NY-HQ2 because they think young college grads will want to move there no matter what. Facebook has leased some but the other tech companies are not biting.

Thanks - this is interesting. NYU (in New York) and UCLA (in L.A.) also had the largest application season in their history for the 2020-2021 year. So I don't think the young college grads think is wrong. A 15% and 28% increase in applicants says something.

http://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2015/january/record-breaking-60000-students-apply-to-nyu-largest-increase-in-15-years.html

https://abc7.com/ucla-admissions-applications-diversity/10142247/

I think it is going to push the young people to want to be in urban areas even more. Staying home with mom and dad in middle of nowhere or middle suburbia gets real old at 18, 20, 22.

The young people from higher wealth households are going to be flocking to cities. I think Amazon is ahead of the game and knows this. It’s very competitive to recruit and retain top talent in tech, etc...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prices inside the city have been increasing since 2012. It started skyrocketing thanks to Covid because everyone wants a SFH.

I mean...this doesn't surprise me. I was on these boards in 2016, 2017, 2018 telling people to buy now. They all said 'I'll wait - it'll come down'.

When in fact D.C. prices have just been mirroring the rise of prices in S.F. and N.Y.C. in a much shorter amount of time. Its going to keep going up because everything in the city keeps getting more desirable.

- One of the top 10 most walkable cities in the country
- Grocery stores in every corner and more coming
- Best healthcare and hospital care available per capita basis
- Schools improving in every quadrant but already excellent in UpperNW, SE near Hill, and NW
- Job market is excellent
- Tourism market and therefore rental market is excellent
- City plans which have increased public transportation and bike paths across the metro area
- More ultra-wealthy moving into the city (Bezos should have been clue)
- City amenities include free pre-school for residents and paid leave for parents
- Beautiful mix of architecture, urban density, and modern capabilities

All this. The city is also retaining families who once would have flocked to the burbs for the schools. This is especially true of young families who like the urban walkable amenities and don’t need to move to upper NW or burbs for the schools with improving neighborhood schools and charters, etc...

This trend is big on why inventory is so low. Not to mention the baby boomers selling their 4K sq feet suburbia home and moving into the city. Not all of them want condos. Some want SFH. Capitol Hill has been a hot area for boomers to buy for years now and I wouldn’t be surprised if they branched out to Shaw, Navy Yard, Wharf, etc...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So Goldman Asia is already at 50% capacity in offices when vaccines were just approved 30 days ago? Yeah. Okay. Let's see what happens by end of 2021 year.

In the memo, which was verified by a bank spokeswoman, Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said Goldman is also considering “the feasibility of testing (staff and visitors for the coronavirus), subject to availability and more information on the accuracy of results.”

Large banks worldwide have been developing plans to gradually return staff to offices after nearly two months of working remotely and from home during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

...did you read any links I posted? Am I arguing with a robot?! (Jokes on me, if so.) Goldman is at 2-3% today, and they plan to ramp up to 50% eventually, with the other 50% of their workforce permanently work from home.

Did you notice that article is 8 months old? If they were at 2% in June 2020 - why would it be the same in February 2021?

I don't work with Goldman but I work with another bank and their reopening efforts ran smack into the second and third waves of the virus. They are still at the same levels they were back then. Traders are fully remote and everybody seems happy so it's a major ? what will happen next. The CRE market has put a lot of pressure on the banks because it's an existential threat for them. The most bullish move is Amazon buying up huge amounts of space in NYC for their NY-HQ2 because they think young college grads will want to move there no matter what. Facebook has leased some but the other tech companies are not biting.

Thanks - this is interesting. NYU (in New York) and UCLA (in L.A.) also had the largest application season in their history for the 2020-2021 year. So I don't think the young college grads think is wrong. A 15% and 28% increase in applicants says something.

http://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2015/january/record-breaking-60000-students-apply-to-nyu-largest-increase-in-15-years.html

https://abc7.com/ucla-admissions-applications-diversity/10142247/

I think it is going to push the young people to want to be in urban areas even more. Staying home with mom and dad in middle of nowhere or middle suburbia gets real old at 18, 20, 22.

The young people from higher wealth households are going to be flocking to cities. I think Amazon is ahead of the game and knows this. It’s very competitive to recruit and retain top talent in tech, etc...

If their parents are smart they're locking down well-located condos and apartments (manhattan rental prices are extremely low at the moment) in 2-3 year contracts for their kids to start classes in-person in Fall 2021. No paying board and having a great flat for you and your friends to live in during some of the best years of your life in an amazing city. I would have killed for my family to have the resources to do that.

[Anonymous]

Demographics. There are now the successful millennials who are jumping into the market - often with help from very successful parents. So there are more buyers combined with fewer new builds due to the 2008 crash. Also we are becoming like Paris - the city center is where the elite live and the banlieue or suburbs are where poorer residents live. Just look at MoCo! What a difference 20 years makes - boomers leaving, immigrants from Northern Triangle taking their place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Demographics. There are now the successful millennials who are jumping into the market - often with help from very successful parents. So there are more buyers combined with fewer new builds due to the 2008 crash. Also we are becoming like Paris - the city center is where the elite live and the banlieue or suburbs are where poorer residents live. Just look at MoCo! What a difference 20 years makes - boomers leaving, immigrants from Northern Triangle taking their place.

What the hell are you talking about? Have you been to the banlieue? The DC suburbs have to increased in value since the pandemic, and they were never poverty-stricken to begin with, but rather a place where many affluent people went for bigger houses with big yards and good public schools. You’re out of your mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Demographics. There are now the successful millennials who are jumping into the market - often with help from very successful parents. So there are more buyers combined with fewer new builds due to the 2008 crash. Also we are becoming like Paris - the city center is where the elite live and the banlieue or suburbs are where poorer residents live. Just look at MoCo! What a difference 20 years makes - boomers leaving, immigrants from Northern Triangle taking their place.

What the hell are you talking about? Have you been to the banlieue? The DC suburbs have to increased in value since the pandemic, and they were never poverty-stricken to begin with, but rather a place where many affluent people went for bigger houses with big yards and good public schools. You’re out of your mind.

I think Mr. Paris has definitely not been to Paris. Those suburbs are built nothing like American "suburbs" and they're essentially urban environments in many cases.

Also, regarding the Paris suburbs, it's not like all the areas outside the city center are poor. Eastern and southeastern areas are quite well off in Paris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices inside the city have been increasing since 2012. It started skyrocketing thanks to Covid because everyone wants a SFH.

I mean...this doesn't surprise me. I was on these boards in 2016, 2017, 2018 telling people to buy now. They all said 'I'll wait - it'll come down'.

When in fact D.C. prices have just been mirroring the rise of prices in S.F. and N.Y.C. in a much shorter amount of time. Its going to keep going up because everything in the city keeps getting more desirable.

- One of the top 10 most walkable cities in the country
- Grocery stores in every corner and more coming
- Best healthcare and hospital care available per capita basis
- Schools improving in every quadrant but already excellent in UpperNW, SE near Hill, and NW
- Job market is excellent
- Tourism market and therefore rental market is excellent
- City plans which have increased public transportation and bike paths across the metro area
- More ultra-wealthy moving into the city (Bezos should have been clue)
- City amenities include free pre-school for residents and paid leave for parents
- Beautiful mix of architecture, urban density, and modern capabilities

All this. The city is also retaining families who once would have flocked to the burbs for the schools. This is especially true of young families who like the urban walkable amenities and don’t need to move to upper NW or burbs for the schools with improving neighborhood schools and charters, etc...

This trend is big on why inventory is so low. Not to mention the baby boomers selling their 4K sq feet suburbia home and moving into the city. Not all of them want condos. Some want SFH. Capitol Hill has been a hot area for boomers to buy for years now and I wouldn’t be surprised if they branched out to Shaw, Navy Yard, Wharf, etc...

I don't want to damage your narrative, but inventory is lowest in the suburbs. In fact, the area with the lowest months' supply is king suburb of them all, Loudoun County. DC is doing just fine, but please don't overstate the story.

[Anonymous]

DMV is the top metro area hiring techies, per Dice and Burning Glass:

Which metro areas are hiring the most technologists at the moment? It might surprise you, but Silicon Valley and San Francisco haven’t taken the top spots this time around. Indeed, a number of smaller tech hubs are hungry for talent.

According to Burning Glass, which collects and analyzes millions of job postings from across the country, the Washington, DC area (including northern Virginia and southern Maryland) has posted the most open jobs for technologists over the past 60 days. The New York City area (including New Jersey and the surrounding environs) came in a close second, and Los Angeles a somewhat-more-distant third. Check out the full chart below:


In a pretty surprising twist, Silicon Valley (encompassing San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara) came in ninth, behind metro areas such as Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas. This is a pretty big deal, especially after all the conjecture over the past year that technologists are moving out of Silicon Valley and San Francisco for cities with a cheaper cost of living (especially if they can remain at their current company, working remotely).

Washington, DC and Virginia benefit from a number of factors. The federal government (and its contractors) is a massive sponge for tech talent, employing everyone from cybersecurity experts to sysadmins. Northern Virginia is also home to some pretty massive tech companies, including Amazon’s AWS infrastructure and (soon) its huge HQ2 “headquarters.” (The “helix” design of HQ2, as seen above in an architectural rendering, is rather… unique.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Demographics. There are now the successful millennials who are jumping into the market - often with help from very successful parents. So there are more buyers combined with fewer new builds due to the 2008 crash. Also we are becoming like Paris - the city center is where the elite live and the banlieue or suburbs are where poorer residents live. Just look at MoCo! What a difference 20 years makes - boomers leaving, immigrants from Northern Triangle taking their place.

What the hell are you talking about? Have you been to the banlieue? The DC suburbs have to increased in value since the pandemic, and they were never poverty-stricken to begin with, but rather a place where many affluent people went for bigger houses with big yards and good public schools. You’re out of your mind.

+1. As other threads have noted, even out in Loudoun houses are selling within 1-2 days right now, with $700k being the minimum for most SFHs (and many larger, newer THs).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Agreed, these prices are crazy and we just bought a 4k square feet for $2M.

That's a bargain.