SPRING MARKET!! What's the vibe?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Very surprised in my neighborhood that houses that sat all summer and were delisted in December got relisted in the past month and have all sold. All in the $2.5-$3.5 range and all decent but had slightly at least one undesirable feature- bad street, corner lot, only one bedroom upstairs, 80s house on a block of 30s and 40s houses, etc.

So in my neighborhood at least I’m confused by the market. I thought things would sit but instead it feels like they’re flying, especially compared to last spring.

I drive through a few other areas en route to work with “lower” price points ($900k-$2M) and that stuff is not moving at all. To me it feels like there are two different real estate universes operating in parallel.

What neighborhood?

+1. This is the opposite of what we’re seeing in N Arlington - anything below $2.5M ish is flying and everything new and above $2.5 ish is sitting. Ashton Heights is a prime example - there’s now 8ish new builds in the high 2s and low 3s just sitting while original homes around $1.2/1.3 are going for $1.4-1.5. LV is similar too.

It means there is a lot higher demand for cheaper houses and we are running out of people with $$$ for the overpriced new builds. Are people starting to lower their expectations and are actually moving into smaller older houses?

I think it’s less running out of people with $$ and more so running out of people with money who are willing to make a ton of compromises (ugly facade, nonexistent yards, weird floor plans, etc) when buying a $2.5M+ home.

Well, this is because cheaper quality construction on $$$ land will still cost $$$ because builders could get away with it and buyers just wanted to get into an area and not have to deal with older homes issues, plus rock bottom interest rates allowed many to upgrade. Now people are pickier and unwilling to overpay. You are right. People expect nicer and higher quality things on the upper end of the price range for the area.

[Anonymous]

I would imagine that the vibe is not going to be great with higher interest rates, war inflation, stock market down, and greater unemployment. But who knows. The war could end tomorrow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I would imagine that the vibe is not going to be great with higher interest rates, war inflation, stock market down, and greater unemployment. But who knows. The war could end tomorrow.

Weird comment given the military industrial complex is a key driver of the DC metro area economy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pricey new builds simply reflect that the builders are constantly pushing the market to see what they can get away with. The profit margins on those houses are insane (new builds in places like Bowie go for $750K -- see https://southlakebowie.com -- and they look virtually indistinguishable from the new builds in desirable areas, so land cost alone cannot account for the difference). In past years, builders have pushed the market and gotten away with it, so every year, they inch up more to see if buyers will accept the higher prices or balk.

I'm sure there is greed but hasn't the price of all materials gone up too with the tariffs? I feel like new builds could be cheaper and they should be. Everything is so expensive now. Don't get me started on restaurant prices...ugh

Labor and materials in Bowie is this much cheaper than in Vienna or Mclean? Please. It costs at least 1.5 mil to build a house (without cost of land) in the affluent NOVA burbs for a basic house. If you want anything nice or high end it's north of 2 mil for build alone. If you find a high end new construction home for a total of 1.5 mil within the 50-100 mile radius what does it tell you? It tells you that construction cost of 2 mil alone carries a "land premium" that your builder wants to collect to add to the profit, not just profit on labor/materials. Because to build the same house that with land price included costs 1.5 mil elsewhere they will charge half this. There is no way materials and labor is this much cheaper just 50-100s miles away. Workers who labor on the houses in premium DC suburbs don't live in them, they commute from cheaper far out places.

Builders will always charge what they know they can get away with. And it's basically a cartel where builders don't want to undercut each other, which would put all of their fat margins at risk. I'm not blaming builders -- if I were them, I would absolutely do the same thing. Why would I price a house at $2 million when I know that I can get a buyer at $2.5 million? Buyers in desirable areas keep paying the higher prices, so builders will continue to price the houses accordingly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I would imagine that the vibe is not going to be great with higher interest rates, war inflation, stock market down, and greater unemployment. But who knows. The war could end tomorrow.

Weird comment given the military industrial complex is a key driver of the DC metro area economy

It is not a particularly "weird comment" at all -- it cites things that cause turns in the real estate market. It's the opposite of a "weird comment." DP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The pricey new builds simply reflect that the builders are constantly pushing the market to see what they can get away with. The profit margins on those houses are insane (new builds in places like Bowie go for $750K -- see https://southlakebowie.com -- and they look virtually indistinguishable from the new builds in desirable areas, so land cost alone cannot account for the difference). In past years, builders have pushed the market and gotten away with it, so every year, they inch up more to see if buyers will accept the higher prices or balk.

I'm sure there is greed but hasn't the price of all materials gone up too with the tariffs? I feel like new builds could be cheaper and they should be. Everything is so expensive now. Don't get me started on restaurant prices...ugh

Labor and materials in Bowie is this much cheaper than in Vienna or Mclean? Please. It costs at least 1.5 mil to build a house (without cost of land) in the affluent NOVA burbs for a basic house. If you want anything nice or high end it's north of 2 mil for build alone. If you find a high end new construction home for a total of 1.5 mil within the 50-100 mile radius what does it tell you? It tells you that construction cost of 2 mil alone carries a "land premium" that your builder wants to collect to add to the profit, not just profit on labor/materials. Because to build the same house that with land price included costs 1.5 mil elsewhere they will charge half this. There is no way materials and labor is this much cheaper just 50-100s miles away. Workers who labor on the houses in premium DC suburbs don't live in them, they commute from cheaper far out places.

I saw a house in Vienna that looked huge and high end and was going for 3.5 mil. The same type of house in premium Mclean goes for 4.5 mil. There is no way that land in the premium parts of Vienna is that much cheaper than Mclean. It's cheaper by some, but not 1 mil. It tells me that developer in Mclean building on a similar lot would collect probably about 500k of "neighborhood premium" to construct an identical house, because there are buyers who want to live there with deeper pockets, who may not consider Vienna, so builders obviously capitalize on this. It could be that the only way to mitigate it is to avoid local builders and try to find builders who work in cheaper areas? Local builders also always canvas the areas for teardown properties to purchase before they hit the market because they know they can make more profit building on $$$ land.

This has nothing to do with real estate but it is really difficult to understand the 2 posters above.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

I would imagine that the vibe is not going to be great with higher interest rates, war inflation, stock market down, and greater unemployment. But who knows. The war could end tomorrow.


Weird comment given the military industrial complex is a key driver of the DC metro area economy


It is not a particularly "weird comment" at all -- it cites things that cause turns in the real estate market. It's the opposite of a "weird comment." DP

I wouldn't imagine that people would be excited to pay a lot for a house when prices for everything else are going up around them. Higher energy costs can cause a lot of inflation. And salaries are not going up. Instability is not the friend of markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not the DC to Ashburn corridor (is that a thing?) but a house on my block just put up the under contract sign, less than two weeks from listing (probably less time - they picked up the staging furniture 2 days ago). Don't know if it sold for full price but guessing pretty close to it.

I mean, this is … normal. What’s remarkable about someone selling a house 2 weeks after listing it?

And why be so cryptic about the location. It’s an anonymous forum.

Apologies, I thought I’d put that in. Bethesda 20816. The house was listed for $1.8m.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

I would imagine that the vibe is not going to be great with higher interest rates, war inflation, stock market down, and greater unemployment. But who knows. The war could end tomorrow.


Weird comment given the military industrial complex is a key driver of the DC metro area economy


It is not a particularly "weird comment" at all -- it cites things that cause turns in the real estate market. It's the opposite of a "weird comment." DP

I wouldn't imagine that people would be excited to pay a lot for a house when prices for everything else are going up around them. Higher energy costs can cause a lot of inflation. And salaries are not going up. Instability is not the friend of markets.

The housing market data since COVID / 2020 doesn’t support that hypothesis. Salaries are also now increasing relative to inflation as of 2025. You’re presenting personal feelings as facts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not the DC to Ashburn corridor (is that a thing?) but a house on my block just put up the under contract sign, less than two weeks from listing (probably less time - they picked up the staging furniture 2 days ago). Don't know if it sold for full price but guessing pretty close to it.

I mean, this is … normal. What’s remarkable about someone selling a house 2 weeks after listing it?

And why be so cryptic about the location. It’s an anonymous forum.

Apologies, I thought I’d put that in. Bethesda 20816. The house was listed for $1.8m.

This Mclean house was under contract in 3 days, open house was cancelled. Built in 1956, 0.4 acres

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6156-Tompkins-Dr-Mc-Lean-VA-22101/51757639_zpid/

[Anonymous]

I tend not to like old houses but I like this one. The vaulted ceiling with skylights in the family room, Miele/Sub Zero/Wolf appliances, pretty exterior, other interesting details you don’t see in new construction. The primary bath looks dated as does some of the paint colors, but those are easy fixes. I wish stuff like this existed when I was looking in Arlington.

I bet it went for 2 - 2.1 million.

[Anonymous]

It's not Spring until the saucer magnolias bloom.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


I wouldn't imagine that people would be excited to pay a lot for a house when prices for everything else are going up around them. Higher energy costs can cause a lot of inflation. And salaries are not going up. Instability is not the friend of markets.


The housing market data since COVID / 2020 doesn’t support that hypothesis. Salaries are also now increasing relative to inflation as of 2025. You’re presenting personal feelings as facts.

Do you have a link to data for your assertion that "salaries are now increasing relative to inflation as of 2025"? The housing data since COVID/2020 doesn't have to support my hypothesis (since we are now in 2026 and higher energy costs are just now upon us). My hypothesis is, as you said, a hypothesis. People are asking about the Spring market "vibe", not what has happened in the past.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I tend not to like old houses but I like this one. The vaulted ceiling with skylights in the family room, Miele/Sub Zero/Wolf appliances, pretty exterior, other interesting details you don’t see in new construction. The primary bath looks dated as does some of the paint colors, but those are easy fixes. I wish stuff like this existed when I was looking in Arlington.

I bet it went for 2 - 2.1 million.

Agree. It's a nice house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I tend not to like old houses but I like this one. The vaulted ceiling with skylights in the family room, Miele/Sub Zero/Wolf appliances, pretty exterior, other interesting details you don’t see in new construction. The primary bath looks dated as does some of the paint colors, but those are easy fixes. I wish stuff like this existed when I was looking in Arlington.

I bet it went for 2 - 2.1 million.

Same.