CRE in DC

[Anonymous]

Looks like DC's loss is Virginia's gain, once again.

https://www.globest.com/2024/02/07/downtown-dc-hq-are-moving-across-the-river/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The federal govt won't let it happen. They're gonna call everyone back.

The WH tried that. The agencies simply ignored it or gave small concession of an extra day per pp. Feds won’t save DC and private employers know there are huge savings to be had via cutting their waste in real estate. Without CRE, DC has close to nothing.

A lot of fed agencies though aren’t in DC anymore. Fda, Uspto, census, etc are md/Va. but they are reducing footprint too. It was the law firms and lobby forms and non profits that could afford to stay in the district.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC is not growing at a rate to absorb the apartments coming online. Nor is downtown an increasingly desirable to place to work and live.

DSA will clamor to fill them with the unhoused, but where will the tax revenue come from?

Great, so luxury housing for every vagrant but no money in city coffers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is not growing at a rate to absorb the apartments coming online. Nor is downtown an increasingly desirable to place to work and live.

DSA will clamor to fill them with the unhoused, but where will the tax revenue come from?

Great, so luxury housing for every vagrant but no money in city coffers.

eventually they'll have to cut back spending on vouchers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is not growing at a rate to absorb the apartments coming online. Nor is downtown an increasingly desirable to place to work and live.

DSA will clamor to fill them with the unhoused, but where will the tax revenue come from?

Great, so luxury housing for every vagrant but no money in city coffers.

Diversity, equity, and inclusion. /s

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is not growing at a rate to absorb the apartments coming online. Nor is downtown an increasingly desirable to place to work and live.

DSA will clamor to fill them with the unhoused, but where will the tax revenue come from?

Great, so luxury housing for every vagrant but no money in city coffers.

Diversity, equity, and inclusion. /s

What does this mean? Are you just being ignorant?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's devastating how Bowser and the Council have taken people's investment in our city for granted. At what point will there be a tourism drop off too? Here's a thought- make the city safe and welcoming? Spend money on that first and foremost. We've spent ten years on affordable housing and violence interruptors, and our city is more unpleasant than it's ever been.

The whole "death spiral" thing is being overdone. Despite the recent rise in crime and downtown hollowing out, there's been no decline in demand for residential real estate. In fact, DC 's population is growing again after shrinking slightly before and during COVID. I don't think CRE in the downtown core are strongly linked to residential demand anymore. When I was living in DC, many of my friends (me included) worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city because of the urban culture and amenities. Young people will still want to live in the city even if their offices move. In fact, work from home liberates people to live where they want - lots will move out to the exurbs, but there will also be those who always wanted to live in a city who now can.

Taxes on CRE are the rock on which everything rests.

This is really the case everywhere. CRE consumes little in terms of services but generates massive property tax revenue.

And right there’s DC’s death spiral.

I'm from DC and I've seen sheer arrogance on the part of the Mayor and Council in terms of showing CRE it's of value to our town. There's a very pooh pooh "deal with it" attitude, and it seems it's catching up? What a shame.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post. Are you willing to pay more in taxes to fund services that are inevitably going to be cut? Besides offices DC has little comparative fall-back tax base.
RTO and commuters are definitely not returning so where will the money be found?

I am upset with how pooh pooh and cavalier our city has been about big tenants (FBI, Sports Teams, Etc) leaving. They seem to think the city has endless.appeal and... It doesn't. Not in its current state.

I see. Agreed.

There's some kind of obtuseness which started when they fell in with luxury condos developers, like there was just an insatiable demand for DC footprint. What they didn't understand was that was just short term demand by developers with dollars in their eyes, not tenants. The arrogance and obtuseness of the developer -delusional do goody of greedy (or sometimes both)politician-GGW cabal . They have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash!

Your feral crime cretins have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash with the help of woke idiot politicians.[/quote

The appeal of spending any time in DC, never mind living here, is greatly diminished. That is why the narrative that there is no crime crisis, only MAGA worry about personal safety, etc. is so aggressive as is the zeal to try to doxx DC Crime Facts. Here since very early 90s, we planned to be lifers, put a lot of $$ and volunteer time into DCPS and now we are actively planning to leave as soon as work allows. Likely to leave the DMV at this point, the 2nd look act type bills and focus on RJ have been embraced by NoVA and MoCo. In 90s, moving to either meant a LOT more safety, now, not as much, especially with the unchecked carjacking and spillover from DC.

People who were not here then have no idea how much things can change economically. This is not a normal way to live. Even if not directly a victim, hypervigilance takes a toll on mental and physical health. So much violent crime on WMATA during peak fare hours is shocking. I have a newly driving teen and worry they could be killed even if hand over keys. People have been carjacked on Connecticut at rush hour and now killed on K St. near City Center. A man was recently shot outside a Michelin starred restaurant there, after handing over possessions in a robbery. Eating out in Bethesda or Tysons or Old Town starts to look a lot more appealing...

Sometimes I think these comments are written out of pure ignorance. If you go out on a Friday and Saturday night in DC, every place is packed. The streets are full. It's like the reality of DC and the PR of DC are 2 different things.

I will not argue that it is difficult to do business in DC. They don't make it easy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's devastating how Bowser and the Council have taken people's investment in our city for granted. At what point will there be a tourism drop off too? Here's a thought- make the city safe and welcoming? Spend money on that first and foremost. We've spent ten years on affordable housing and violence interruptors, and our city is more unpleasant than it's ever been.

The whole "death spiral" thing is being overdone. Despite the recent rise in crime and downtown hollowing out, there's been no decline in demand for residential real estate. In fact, DC 's population is growing again after shrinking slightly before and during COVID. I don't think CRE in the downtown core are strongly linked to residential demand anymore. When I was living in DC, many of my friends (me included) worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city because of the urban culture and amenities. Young people will still want to live in the city even if their offices move. In fact, work from home liberates people to live where they want - lots will move out to the exurbs, but there will also be those who always wanted to live in a city who now can.

Taxes on CRE are the rock on which everything rests.

This is really the case everywhere. CRE consumes little in terms of services but generates massive property tax revenue.

And right there’s DC’s death spiral.

I'm from DC and I've seen sheer arrogance on the part of the Mayor and Council in terms of showing CRE it's of value to our town. There's a very pooh pooh "deal with it" attitude, and it seems it's catching up? What a shame.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post. Are you willing to pay more in taxes to fund services that are inevitably going to be cut? Besides offices DC has little comparative fall-back tax base.
RTO and commuters are definitely not returning so where will the money be found?

I am upset with how pooh pooh and cavalier our city has been about big tenants (FBI, Sports Teams, Etc) leaving. They seem to think the city has endless.appeal and... It doesn't. Not in its current state.

I see. Agreed.

There's some kind of obtuseness which started when they fell in with luxury condos developers, like there was just an insatiable demand for DC footprint. What they didn't understand was that was just short term demand by developers with dollars in their eyes, not tenants. The arrogance and obtuseness of the developer -delusional do goody of greedy (or sometimes both)politician-GGW cabal . They have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash!

Your feral crime cretins have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash with the help of woke idiot politicians.[/quote

The appeal of spending any time in DC, never mind living here, is greatly diminished. That is why the narrative that there is no crime crisis, only MAGA worry about personal safety, etc. is so aggressive as is the zeal to try to doxx DC Crime Facts. Here since very early 90s, we planned to be lifers, put a lot of $$ and volunteer time into DCPS and now we are actively planning to leave as soon as work allows. Likely to leave the DMV at this point, the 2nd look act type bills and focus on RJ have been embraced by NoVA and MoCo. In 90s, moving to either meant a LOT more safety, now, not as much, especially with the unchecked carjacking and spillover from DC.

People who were not here then have no idea how much things can change economically. This is not a normal way to live. Even if not directly a victim, hypervigilance takes a toll on mental and physical health. So much violent crime on WMATA during peak fare hours is shocking. I have a newly driving teen and worry they could be killed even if hand over keys. People have been carjacked on Connecticut at rush hour and now killed on K St. near City Center. A man was recently shot outside a Michelin starred restaurant there, after handing over possessions in a robbery. Eating out in Bethesda or Tysons or Old Town starts to look a lot more appealing...

Sometimes I think these comments are written out of pure ignorance. If you go out on a Friday and Saturday night in DC, every place is packed. The streets are full. It's like the reality of DC and the PR of DC are 2 different things.

I will not argue that it is difficult to do business in DC. They don't make it easy.

The problem is that it seems that in order to keep restaurants from closing they need customers the other nights of the week too. Surbanites may be happy to come to DC on the weekends for leisure, particularly as it is easier to drive in, but their is now a strong preference for people to work in the Surburbs during the week. This pattern is also emulated in some of the neighborhoods. The problem is that it’s not enough to sustain a vibrant city and is going to lead to serious negative consequences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's devastating how Bowser and the Council have taken people's investment in our city for granted. At what point will there be a tourism drop off too? Here's a thought- make the city safe and welcoming? Spend money on that first and foremost. We've spent ten years on affordable housing and violence interruptors, and our city is more unpleasant than it's ever been.

The whole "death spiral" thing is being overdone. Despite the recent rise in crime and downtown hollowing out, there's been no decline in demand for residential real estate. In fact, DC 's population is growing again after shrinking slightly before and during COVID. I don't think CRE in the downtown core are strongly linked to residential demand anymore. When I was living in DC, many of my friends (me included) worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city because of the urban culture and amenities. Young people will still want to live in the city even if their offices move. In fact, work from home liberates people to live where they want - lots will move out to the exurbs, but there will also be those who always wanted to live in a city who now can.

Taxes on CRE are the rock on which everything rests.

This is really the case everywhere. CRE consumes little in terms of services but generates massive property tax revenue.

And right there’s DC’s death spiral.

I'm from DC and I've seen sheer arrogance on the part of the Mayor and Council in terms of showing CRE it's of value to our town. There's a very pooh pooh "deal with it" attitude, and it seems it's catching up? What a shame.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post. Are you willing to pay more in taxes to fund services that are inevitably going to be cut? Besides offices DC has little comparative fall-back tax base.
RTO and commuters are definitely not returning so where will the money be found?

I am upset with how pooh pooh and cavalier our city has been about big tenants (FBI, Sports Teams, Etc) leaving. They seem to think the city has endless.appeal and... It doesn't. Not in its current state.

I see. Agreed.

There's some kind of obtuseness which started when they fell in with luxury condos developers, like there was just an insatiable demand for DC footprint. What they didn't understand was that was just short term demand by developers with dollars in their eyes, not tenants. The arrogance and obtuseness of the developer -delusional do goody of greedy (or sometimes both)politician-GGW cabal . They have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash!

Your feral crime cretins have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash with the help of woke idiot politicians.[/quote

The appeal of spending any time in DC, never mind living here, is greatly diminished. That is why the narrative that there is no crime crisis, only MAGA worry about personal safety, etc. is so aggressive as is the zeal to try to doxx DC Crime Facts. Here since very early 90s, we planned to be lifers, put a lot of $$ and volunteer time into DCPS and now we are actively planning to leave as soon as work allows. Likely to leave the DMV at this point, the 2nd look act type bills and focus on RJ have been embraced by NoVA and MoCo. In 90s, moving to either meant a LOT more safety, now, not as much, especially with the unchecked carjacking and spillover from DC.

People who were not here then have no idea how much things can change economically. This is not a normal way to live. Even if not directly a victim, hypervigilance takes a toll on mental and physical health. So much violent crime on WMATA during peak fare hours is shocking. I have a newly driving teen and worry they could be killed even if hand over keys. People have been carjacked on Connecticut at rush hour and now killed on K St. near City Center. A man was recently shot outside a Michelin starred restaurant there, after handing over possessions in a robbery. Eating out in Bethesda or Tysons or Old Town starts to look a lot more appealing...

Sometimes I think these comments are written out of pure ignorance. If you go out on a Friday and Saturday night in DC, every place is packed. The streets are full. It's like the reality of DC and the PR of DC are 2 different things.

I will not argue that it is difficult to do business in DC. They don't make it easy.

The problem is that it seems that in order to keep restaurants from closing they need customers the other nights of the week too. Surbanites may be happy to come to DC on the weekends for leisure, particularly as it is easier to drive in, but their is now a strong preference for people to work in the Surburbs during the week. This pattern is also emulated in some of the neighborhoods. The problem is that it’s not enough to sustain a vibrant city and is going to lead to serious negative consequences.

That’s part of it but the larger problem is going to be when owners start dumping the vacant office space which will be devalued. The financial future of DC does not look bright.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's devastating how Bowser and the Council have taken people's investment in our city for granted. At what point will there be a tourism drop off too? Here's a thought- make the city safe and welcoming? Spend money on that first and foremost. We've spent ten years on affordable housing and violence interruptors, and our city is more unpleasant than it's ever been.

The whole "death spiral" thing is being overdone. Despite the recent rise in crime and downtown hollowing out, there's been no decline in demand for residential real estate. In fact, DC 's population is growing again after shrinking slightly before and during COVID. I don't think CRE in the downtown core are strongly linked to residential demand anymore. When I was living in DC, many of my friends (me included) worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city because of the urban culture and amenities. Young people will still want to live in the city even if their offices move. In fact, work from home liberates people to live where they want - lots will move out to the exurbs, but there will also be those who always wanted to live in a city who now can.

Taxes on CRE are the rock on which everything rests.

This is really the case everywhere. CRE consumes little in terms of services but generates massive property tax revenue.

And right there’s DC’s death spiral.

I'm from DC and I've seen sheer arrogance on the part of the Mayor and Council in terms of showing CRE it's of value to our town. There's a very pooh pooh "deal with it" attitude, and it seems it's catching up? What a shame.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post. Are you willing to pay more in taxes to fund services that are inevitably going to be cut? Besides offices DC has little comparative fall-back tax base.
RTO and commuters are definitely not returning so where will the money be found?

I am upset with how pooh pooh and cavalier our city has been about big tenants (FBI, Sports Teams, Etc) leaving. They seem to think the city has endless.appeal and... It doesn't. Not in its current state.

I see. Agreed.

There's some kind of obtuseness which started when they fell in with luxury condos developers, like there was just an insatiable demand for DC footprint. What they didn't understand was that was just short term demand by developers with dollars in their eyes, not tenants. The arrogance and obtuseness of the developer -delusional do goody of greedy (or sometimes both)politician-GGW cabal . They have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash!

Your feral crime cretins have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash with the help of woke idiot politicians.[/quote

The appeal of spending any time in DC, never mind living here, is greatly diminished. That is why the narrative that there is no crime crisis, only MAGA worry about personal safety, etc. is so aggressive as is the zeal to try to doxx DC Crime Facts. Here since very early 90s, we planned to be lifers, put a lot of $$ and volunteer time into DCPS and now we are actively planning to leave as soon as work allows. Likely to leave the DMV at this point, the 2nd look act type bills and focus on RJ have been embraced by NoVA and MoCo. In 90s, moving to either meant a LOT more safety, now, not as much, especially with the unchecked carjacking and spillover from DC.

People who were not here then have no idea how much things can change economically. This is not a normal way to live. Even if not directly a victim, hypervigilance takes a toll on mental and physical health. So much violent crime on WMATA during peak fare hours is shocking. I have a newly driving teen and worry they could be killed even if hand over keys. People have been carjacked on Connecticut at rush hour and now killed on K St. near City Center. A man was recently shot outside a Michelin starred restaurant there, after handing over possessions in a robbery. Eating out in Bethesda or Tysons or Old Town starts to look a lot more appealing...

Sometimes I think these comments are written out of pure ignorance. If you go out on a Friday and Saturday night in DC, every place is packed. The streets are full. It's like the reality of DC and the PR of DC are 2 different things.

I will not argue that it is difficult to do business in DC. They don't make it easy.

And sometimes I don't think you can see your own ignorance as it is not about just Friday & Saturday nights.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fannie Mae has a huge work from home contingent and also a large Reston presence. I work in CRE (though not on this deal) and it would make sense to consolidate in their NoVA building. With people doing a lot of WFH, a lot more people can occupy that space. At least for now, EEs can go to lunch or commute to Reston without having to worry about being carjacked, mugged at gunpoint, clobbered on the back of the head, or having a bucket of urine dumped on their head---all instances which have occurred within several blocks of Fannie Mae's downtown location. As to the effect---DC depends on CRE tax revenue to fund a lot of city government. When that building is empty, its value plummets precipitiously and the tax revenues along with it. Too bad there is no one on the Council who has enough experience in the private sector to understand that fiscal reality.

Wife and I are both federal employees whose offices are outside the beltway.

Wife’s dream job was once moving up to one of the downtown DC offices. But honestly the crime risk in the city now means neither of us has any interest in working downtown now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's devastating how Bowser and the Council have taken people's investment in our city for granted. At what point will there be a tourism drop off too? Here's a thought- make the city safe and welcoming? Spend money on that first and foremost. We've spent ten years on affordable housing and violence interruptors, and our city is more unpleasant than it's ever been.

The whole "death spiral" thing is being overdone. Despite the recent rise in crime and downtown hollowing out, there's been no decline in demand for residential real estate. In fact, DC 's population is growing again after shrinking slightly before and during COVID. I don't think CRE in the downtown core are strongly linked to residential demand anymore. When I was living in DC, many of my friends (me included) worked in the suburbs but chose to live in the city because of the urban culture and amenities. Young people will still want to live in the city even if their offices move. In fact, work from home liberates people to live where they want - lots will move out to the exurbs, but there will also be those who always wanted to live in a city who now can.

Taxes on CRE are the rock on which everything rests.

This is really the case everywhere. CRE consumes little in terms of services but generates massive property tax revenue.

And right there’s DC’s death spiral.

I'm from DC and I've seen sheer arrogance on the part of the Mayor and Council in terms of showing CRE it's of value to our town. There's a very pooh pooh "deal with it" attitude, and it seems it's catching up? What a shame.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post. Are you willing to pay more in taxes to fund services that are inevitably going to be cut? Besides offices DC has little comparative fall-back tax base.
RTO and commuters are definitely not returning so where will the money be found?

I am upset with how pooh pooh and cavalier our city has been about big tenants (FBI, Sports Teams, Etc) leaving. They seem to think the city has endless.appeal and... It doesn't. Not in its current state.

I see. Agreed.

There's some kind of obtuseness which started when they fell in with luxury condos developers, like there was just an insatiable demand for DC footprint. What they didn't understand was that was just short term demand by developers with dollars in their eyes, not tenants. The arrogance and obtuseness of the developer -delusional do goody of greedy (or sometimes both)politician-GGW cabal . They have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash!

Your feral crime cretins have chewed up a beautiful city and made it trash with the help of woke idiot politicians.[/quote

The appeal of spending any time in DC, never mind living here, is greatly diminished. That is why the narrative that there is no crime crisis, only MAGA worry about personal safety, etc. is so aggressive as is the zeal to try to doxx DC Crime Facts. Here since very early 90s, we planned to be lifers, put a lot of $$ and volunteer time into DCPS and now we are actively planning to leave as soon as work allows. Likely to leave the DMV at this point, the 2nd look act type bills and focus on RJ have been embraced by NoVA and MoCo. In 90s, moving to either meant a LOT more safety, now, not as much, especially with the unchecked carjacking and spillover from DC.

People who were not here then have no idea how much things can change economically. This is not a normal way to live. Even if not directly a victim, hypervigilance takes a toll on mental and physical health. So much violent crime on WMATA during peak fare hours is shocking. I have a newly driving teen and worry they could be killed even if hand over keys. People have been carjacked on Connecticut at rush hour and now killed on K St. near City Center. A man was recently shot outside a Michelin starred restaurant there, after handing over possessions in a robbery. Eating out in Bethesda or Tysons or Old Town starts to look a lot more appealing...

Sometimes I think these comments are written out of pure ignorance. If you go out on a Friday and Saturday night in DC, every place is packed. The streets are full. It's like the reality of DC and the PR of DC are 2 different things.

I will not argue that it is difficult to do business in DC. They don't make it easy.

The problem is that it seems that in order to keep restaurants from closing they need customers the other nights of the week too. Surbanites may be happy to come to DC on the weekends for leisure, particularly as it is easier to drive in, but their is now a strong preference for people to work in the Surburbs during the week. This pattern is also emulated in some of the neighborhoods. The problem is that it’s not enough to sustain a vibrant city and is going to lead to serious negative consequences.

That’s part of it but the larger problem is going to be when owners start dumping the vacant office space which will be devalued. The financial future of DC does not look bright.

It looks grim and in an unprecedented way. In the past there were more Fed agencies in DC and much less remote work. The finances are going to be brutal.

[Anonymous]

And to face this unprecedented challenge, we have the most incompetent council certainly in the history of DC, and maybe in the history of local politic bodies in this country. The clowncil cannot begin to even fathom what is about to hit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And to face this unprecedented challenge, we have the most incompetent council certainly in the history of DC, and maybe in the history of local politic bodies in this country. The clowncil cannot begin to even fathom what is about to hit.

Low-income housing and more bike lanes seem to be the current city council’s spending priorities.

If the city loses most of their current CRE revenue stream, maybe they can back-fill the budget losses by further defunding the MPD ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And to face this unprecedented challenge, we have the most incompetent council certainly in the history of DC, and maybe in the history of local politic bodies in this country. The clowncil cannot begin to even fathom what is about to hit.

Low-income housing and more bike lanes seem to be the current city council’s spending priorities.

If the city loses most of their current CRE revenue stream, maybe they can back-fill the budget losses by further defunding the MPD ?

As the force has shrunk it has gotten cheaper but backfilling with OT has erased most if not all of the savings.

Anyone else worrying about property values? Anyone from here want to chime in on what things were like in the 80s?