If your child plays sports in college when did it become clear she/he/they had a chance to make it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Boy D1 soccer. Was clear that was his likely path by age 12, 7th grade.

The problem is 99% of parents with 12-year old boy travel players on top teams at that she think they same. It rarely pans out.

We did not find this to be the case, but we were on a high-level team where virtually every kid had one or more very knowledgeable soccer parents (DH in my case), and the families who didn’t sought out advice from those who did. If you polled all the knowledgeable parents on the team about which kids at 12 had college potential if they kept their grades up, the results would have been at least 75% accurate. I agree that a parent who does not know the game is not going to be able to make that prediction, and kids can go in a variety of directions depending on personalities and circumstances.

Like Hampden Sydney, Christopher Newport, Randolph Macon, Mount St. Mary's to play? I have seen pretty much zero boys going to UNC, Stanford, Duke, UCLA, UVA, etc. from this area. I have been watching the commits at my kid's big Club (considered one of the best in the DMV) since 2010 and the neighboring MLSNxt Club's commits. There were a few that went over to DC United academy, but not many top colleges/programs. The girls were different, of course.

I have seen so many parents who told me their kid had 'pro potential' or would play D1 when these boys were little. Most had dropped the Club after Junior year of HS when it was apparent that wasn't panning out. I saw some families drive 1,000s upon 1,000s of miles and fly too and dump so much time and effort and to come up short. I am one of the parents you talk about-pro in the family and several D1 players (who I'm not sure would be D1 with the huge landscape and number of foreign players taking college spots today).

Where was your Club? I'd be very interested to know.

What club commits were you looking at? In recent years BSC has sent boys to most Ivies (Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, Princeton, Cornell), Stanford, Duke, Georgetown, and plenty of other good D1 schools plus several academically excellent D3s. None of the kids on the top couple of teams suddenly blossomed or tanked (barring injury) when they were 15 or 16 and ended up with very different options from what was expected in late MS. Of course lots of kids at all levels at all clubs will end up choosing a school based on academic fit alone and will forgo recruitment.

I’m not sure why this seems to be such controversial notion. It’s pretty obvious whether a kid is a good athlete by 11 or 12 in most cases, right? If you combine good athletes, good training with other competitive kids, parents who value academics and education and generally have plenty of discretionary income (which describes most families who gravitate to BSC and similar clubs in other areas) and years of hard work, your odds of ending up as a recruitable athlete are pretty good. I’d noted in my earlier post that a knowledgeable parent or coach can often make a pretty good prediction in MS about what a kid’s ceiling is IF that kid continues playing AND has good academics. I’m not suggesting that any random parent who doesn’t know the game or how recruitment works can do the same. And it’s not surprising that kids who play for DCUnited often end up with fewer elite college admissions no matter their academic talents. Kids there who are talented enough athletically that a pro-career is realistic are going to be doing online school their last couple years of HS, and that makes it tough to get into some schools whose coaches would be delighted to have them.

If by previous years, you mean prior to the change in the transfer rules, then that’s pretty irrelevant to the current D1 recruiting landscape. Most D1 recruits from prior to the change would not be D1 recruits now.

I’m talking about recruits from the HS Classes of 2018-22. It goes without saying that any assessment of athletic recruitability occurring before a player commits/signs an NLI will be made based on the rules in place at the time of the assessment.

Of course, but what you don’t seem to understand is just how radically the transfer portal change has impacted HS senior recruiting for men’s soccer (frankly also men’s football and basketball). Recruiting prior to 2021 is not at all indicative of recruiting now. To give just one example of the change, some D1 coaches have stopped going to college showcases they used to always attend, because they know they won’t look at any high school seniors. The change is profound.

Essentially men’s soccer is moving to a model more similar to men’s hockey, where the expectation is that kids who want to play D1 will play juniors first.

No there is a huge difference between the highest level club soccer and pro development. The players in the USL are vastly better vs college. The speed of play, athleticism, professional training, etc.

Uh, yes? Nobody disputes that USL plays at a higher level than club, so I have no idea why you even bring it up. That has nothing to do with this conversation. Are you the person who somehow believes that what happened in 2018 in Bethesda soccer is remotely relevant to D1 soccer recruiting today?

I’m the BSC poster and have not written about USL. You are straying far off topic. This is not a thread about transfer portals or D1 soccer recruiting; it’s about the age at which it’s possible to project a kid’s athletic ability into the future regardless of the sport or level they may ultimately attain if they stay the course. Why don’t you answer the OP’s question instead of attacking others?

It is entirely on-topic, but you are attacking me because you don’t like today’s college recruiting landscape for men’s soccer, which is what I am talking about. You are angry at me for describing the reality of men’s college soccer recruiting. I’m sorry, but you are shooting the messenger here.

The question in OP is at what age it is possible to predict whether a child plays athletics in college. For men’s soccer, that answer is significantly impacted by the recent changes to the transfer portal, because kids who used to be good candidates for D1 (or even D2/D3) are now no longer candidates. Kids who four years ago would have been obvious candidates when they were in 10th grade are no longer such obvious candidates, because so few kids are recruited to teams as seniors at this point. That change is causing a ripple effect: kids who were obvious candidates for D1 as sophomores/juniors four years ago are now maybe looking at D2/D3 feeder programs to D1, and hoping to transfer. And kids who four years ago would have been identified as D3 candidates at about the same time are now looking to play club. The point is that in order to accurately answer OPs question for men’s soccer, you need to understand just how profoundly recruiting has changed for the sport.

I mean, if you prefer we could just say that statistically your child’s odds of playing D1 men’s soccer as a freshman are vanishingly low and getting sharply lower, and just leave it at that.

[Anonymous]

PP here. I also meant to add that these changes to men’s soccer are also relevant because people who say that that it was clear that their kid currently playing D1 had a good chance of making it at, say, 14 aren’t giving OP useful information that’s relevant to OP now. It’s of course historically interesting (and does answer OPs question) but presumably OP is a parent trying to figure out when she can assume her kid has a good chance of making it to a college team. For men’s soccer, because of how much the landscape has changed, what happened four years ago is just not going to give OP much helpful guidance on that front.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Child is a swimmer, many of the fastest of whom get recruited at the end of Sophomore year, so that is when you really know.

I remember my child’s age group coach saying that they can never tell- the kids they thought were total winners at 9/10 or 11/12 didn’t end up as much, and there were kids who were slower at those ages that got recruited in HS.

I think the Katie Ledeckys and Michael Phelps of the world are really the exception and for the most part you have to wait until HS (and boys start getting really fast after HS)

As a board member at a big club, your coach is blowing smoke. The coaches almost always have a good idea which kids will eventually be recruited by 11/12. And swimmers who are mediocre at those ages but suddenly become very fast are very, very few and far between. It’s not just times at the young ages, it’s watching them in the water. Work ethic is part of it too. The coaches talk and are almost always right.

I think you can tell which kids have the potential and which kids just don't, but you don't know which girls will end up being 5'1 and which ones will be 5'10. Swimming is a sport where height and shoulder width are very very important and you don't know until puberty which kids will end up big and strong enough

Maybe the coaches knew, but I had a B/BB swimmer at age 11-12. She loved the sport and just kept at it, but we didn't think much of it in terms of college. Then she put up sectionals cuts at 14 and futures cuts at 15. They kept moving her up in groups, so maybe the coaches saw something and it was only a surprise to me. So I guess I'm validating your post that the coaches know their business?

The coach was just collecting a check. If your kid was not there another would step in and keep paying.

Truth

Maybe- but I was responding that I had no idea that kid would get recruited at 11-12, that didn't become apparent until 14.

[Anonymous]

We were not sure she was at the D1 level until coaches started calling/texting on June 15th before her junior year. Up until that point we knew she had talent but weren’t sure if she was D1 or D3 since coaches couldn't contact her. You never really know until you start getting interest and then offers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Child is a swimmer, many of the fastest of whom get recruited at the end of Sophomore year, so that is when you really know.

I remember my child’s age group coach saying that they can never tell- the kids they thought were total winners at 9/10 or 11/12 didn’t end up as much, and there were kids who were slower at those ages that got recruited in HS.

I think the Katie Ledeckys and Michael Phelps of the world are really the exception and for the most part you have to wait until HS (and boys start getting really fast after HS)

As a board member at a big club, your coach is blowing smoke. The coaches almost always have a good idea which kids will eventually be recruited by 11/12. And swimmers who are mediocre at those ages but suddenly become very fast are very, very few and far between. It’s not just times at the young ages, it’s watching them in the water. Work ethic is part of it too. The coaches talk and are almost always right.

I think you can tell which kids have the potential and which kids just don't, but you don't know which girls will end up being 5'1 and which ones will be 5'10. Swimming is a sport where height and shoulder width are very very important and you don't know until puberty which kids will end up big and strong enough

You can get a pretty good idea of future height and shoulder width by looking at the kids' parents. Coaches know who has potential by 13.

Definitely not true, unless both parents are exceptionally big/tall, in which case there’s a pretty good chance kid will be too. I have seen so many kids go through our club whose size you never could have guessed in a million years based on parents. 6’4 boys with short/average height parents, girls who are taller than all peers at 12 but then stop growing at 5’4, boys with massively tall dads but short petite moms who top out at 5’9. Everything in between. My own nephew has a 5’5 mom and 5’10 dad but he is 6’4. He has a 6’4 grandfather.

Also, for D1 swimming size/height is important but not that important. Olympic level is a bit different. But our two top recruits last year oddly were a 5’3 girl and a 5’10 boy. Both now at top D1 schools.

This is like my sons. Those are the heights of me and my husband--both very physically fit and muscular. Both of us were athletes and look it, still train and work out competitvely.

But, we are both the runts of our families. All the women in my family are 5'9"-5'11" and the men in my family are all over 6". My sons grew very late and I'm sure at 14 people assumed they would not be tall. They went to middle of the pack to shortest on their team in middle school. They didn't start a growth spurt until 15. All those teammates that towered over them (minus 1 or 2) are now shorter. Their speed and strength after the late testosterone surge also changed their efficacy in games 90%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Boy D1 soccer. Was clear that was his likely path by age 12, 7th grade.

The problem is 99% of parents with 12-year old boy travel players on top teams at that she think they same. It rarely pans out.

We did not find this to be the case, but we were on a high-level team where virtually every kid had one or more very knowledgeable soccer parents (DH in my case), and the families who didn’t sought out advice from those who did. If you polled all the knowledgeable parents on the team about which kids at 12 had college potential if they kept their grades up, the results would have been at least 75% accurate. I agree that a parent who does not know the game is not going to be able to make that prediction, and kids can go in a variety of directions depending on personalities and circumstances.

Like Hampden Sydney, Christopher Newport, Randolph Macon, Mount St. Mary's to play? I have seen pretty much zero boys going to UNC, Stanford, Duke, UCLA, UVA, etc. from this area. I have been watching the commits at my kid's big Club (considered one of the best in the DMV) since 2010 and the neighboring MLSNxt Club's commits. There were a few that went over to DC United academy, but not many top colleges/programs. The girls were different, of course.

I have seen so many parents who told me their kid had 'pro potential' or would play D1 when these boys were little. Most had dropped the Club after Junior year of HS when it was apparent that wasn't panning out. I saw some families drive 1,000s upon 1,000s of miles and fly too and dump so much time and effort and to come up short. I am one of the parents you talk about-pro in the family and several D1 players (who I'm not sure would be D1 with the huge landscape and number of foreign players taking college spots today).

Where was your Club? I'd be very interested to know.

What club commits were you looking at? In recent years BSC has sent boys to most Ivies (Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, Princeton, Cornell), Stanford, Duke, Georgetown, and plenty of other good D1 schools plus several academically excellent D3s. None of the kids on the top couple of teams suddenly blossomed or tanked (barring injury) when they were 15 or 16 and ended up with very different options from what was expected in late MS. Of course lots of kids at all levels at all clubs will end up choosing a school based on academic fit alone and will forgo recruitment.

I’m not sure why this seems to be such controversial notion. It’s pretty obvious whether a kid is a good athlete by 11 or 12 in most cases, right? If you combine good athletes, good training with other competitive kids, parents who value academics and education and generally have plenty of discretionary income (which describes most families who gravitate to BSC and similar clubs in other areas) and years of hard work, your odds of ending up as a recruitable athlete are pretty good. I’d noted in my earlier post that a knowledgeable parent or coach can often make a pretty good prediction in MS about what a kid’s ceiling is IF that kid continues playing AND has good academics. I’m not suggesting that any random parent who doesn’t know the game or how recruitment works can do the same. And it’s not surprising that kids who play for DCUnited often end up with fewer elite college admissions no matter their academic talents. Kids there who are talented enough athletically that a pro-career is realistic are going to be doing online school their last couple years of HS, and that makes it tough to get into some schools whose coaches would be delighted to have them.

If by previous years, you mean prior to the change in the transfer rules, then that’s pretty irrelevant to the current D1 recruiting landscape. Most D1 recruits from prior to the change would not be D1 recruits now.

I’m talking about recruits from the HS Classes of 2018-22. It goes without saying that any assessment of athletic recruitability occurring before a player commits/signs an NLI will be made based on the rules in place at the time of the assessment.

Of course, but what you don’t seem to understand is just how radically the transfer portal change has impacted HS senior recruiting for men’s soccer (frankly also men’s football and basketball). Recruiting prior to 2021 is not at all indicative of recruiting now. To give just one example of the change, some D1 coaches have stopped going to college showcases they used to always attend, because they know they won’t look at any high school seniors. The change is profound.

Essentially men’s soccer is moving to a model more similar to men’s hockey, where the expectation is that kids who want to play D1 will play juniors first.

No there is a huge difference between the highest level club soccer and pro development. The players in the USL are vastly better vs college. The speed of play, athleticism, professional training, etc.

Uh, yes? Nobody disputes that USL plays at a higher level than club, so I have no idea why you even bring it up. That has nothing to do with this conversation. Are you the person who somehow believes that what happened in 2018 in Bethesda soccer is remotely relevant to D1 soccer recruiting today?

I’m the BSC poster and have not written about USL. You are straying far off topic. This is not a thread about transfer portals or D1 soccer recruiting; it’s about the age at which it’s possible to project a kid’s athletic ability into the future regardless of the sport or level they may ultimately attain if they stay the course. Why don’t you answer the OP’s question instead of attacking others?

It is entirely on-topic, but you are attacking me because you don’t like today’s college recruiting landscape for men’s soccer, which is what I am talking about. You are angry at me for describing the reality of men’s college soccer recruiting. I’m sorry, but you are shooting the messenger here.

The question in OP is at what age it is possible to predict whether a child plays athletics in college. For men’s soccer, that answer is significantly impacted by the recent changes to the transfer portal, because kids who used to be good candidates for D1 (or even D2/D3) are now no longer candidates. Kids who four years ago would have been obvious candidates when they were in 10th grade are no longer such obvious candidates, because so few kids are recruited to teams as seniors at this point. That change is causing a ripple effect: kids who were obvious candidates for D1 as sophomores/juniors four years ago are now maybe looking at D2/D3 feeder programs to D1, and hoping to transfer. And kids who four years ago would have been identified as D3 candidates at about the same time are now looking to play club. The point is that in order to accurately answer OPs question for men’s soccer, you need to understand just how profoundly recruiting has changed for the sport.

I mean, if you prefer we could just say that statistically your child’s odds of playing D1 men’s soccer as a freshman are vanishingly low and getting sharply lower, and just leave it at that.

+1

They all think their kid will be an exception. We have a team that is 8th graders and Freshmen that is not even in ECNL or MLSNxt going to a college showcase and the parents are all delusional that these boys will be discovered. First, nobody is recruiting 8th/9th grade boys or even looking at them (minus the National superstar here or there). And, if they clicked on the 'coaches in attendance' button on the tournament website they would see that the are colleges that nobody has ever heard of, teeny tiny poor academic schools in crap areas. They could offer a full-ride and pay and it's doubtful anyone of these parents would send their kids to any of these places.

My Junior was continually told by college coaches that it was 'very early' and the schools weren't even looking at his age group (this was summer after Sophomore year). For boys, any recruiting is much, much later--right before Senior year--first semester. But, even then it is very limited for all the reasons the poster states above. And to get $ to play in college, very unlikely to even cover 1/16th of a years tuition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Boy D1 soccer. Was clear that was his likely path by age 12, 7th grade.

The problem is 99% of parents with 12-year old boy travel players on top teams at that she think they same. It rarely pans out.

We did not find this to be the case, but we were on a high-level team where virtually every kid had one or more very knowledgeable soccer parents (DH in my case), and the families who didn’t sought out advice from those who did. If you polled all the knowledgeable parents on the team about which kids at 12 had college potential if they kept their grades up, the results would have been at least 75% accurate. I agree that a parent who does not know the game is not going to be able to make that prediction, and kids can go in a variety of directions depending on personalities and circumstances.

Like Hampden Sydney, Christopher Newport, Randolph Macon, Mount St. Mary's to play? I have seen pretty much zero boys going to UNC, Stanford, Duke, UCLA, UVA, etc. from this area. I have been watching the commits at my kid's big Club (considered one of the best in the DMV) since 2010 and the neighboring MLSNxt Club's commits. There were a few that went over to DC United academy, but not many top colleges/programs. The girls were different, of course.

I have seen so many parents who told me their kid had 'pro potential' or would play D1 when these boys were little. Most had dropped the Club after Junior year of HS when it was apparent that wasn't panning out. I saw some families drive 1,000s upon 1,000s of miles and fly too and dump so much time and effort and to come up short. I am one of the parents you talk about-pro in the family and several D1 players (who I'm not sure would be D1 with the huge landscape and number of foreign players taking college spots today).

Where was your Club? I'd be very interested to know.

What club commits were you looking at? In recent years BSC has sent boys to most Ivies (Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, Princeton, Cornell), Stanford, Duke, Georgetown, and plenty of other good D1 schools plus several academically excellent D3s. None of the kids on the top couple of teams suddenly blossomed or tanked (barring injury) when they were 15 or 16 and ended up with very different options from what was expected in late MS. Of course lots of kids at all levels at all clubs will end up choosing a school based on academic fit alone and will forgo recruitment.

I’m not sure why this seems to be such controversial notion. It’s pretty obvious whether a kid is a good athlete by 11 or 12 in most cases, right? If you combine good athletes, good training with other competitive kids, parents who value academics and education and generally have plenty of discretionary income (which describes most families who gravitate to BSC and similar clubs in other areas) and years of hard work, your odds of ending up as a recruitable athlete are pretty good. I’d noted in my earlier post that a knowledgeable parent or coach can often make a pretty good prediction in MS about what a kid’s ceiling is IF that kid continues playing AND has good academics. I’m not suggesting that any random parent who doesn’t know the game or how recruitment works can do the same. And it’s not surprising that kids who play for DCUnited often end up with fewer elite college admissions no matter their academic talents. Kids there who are talented enough athletically that a pro-career is realistic are going to be doing online school their last couple years of HS, and that makes it tough to get into some schools whose coaches would be delighted to have them.

If by previous years, you mean prior to the change in the transfer rules, then that’s pretty irrelevant to the current D1 recruiting landscape. Most D1 recruits from prior to the change would not be D1 recruits now.

I’m talking about recruits from the HS Classes of 2018-22. It goes without saying that any assessment of athletic recruitability occurring before a player commits/signs an NLI will be made based on the rules in place at the time of the assessment.

Of course, but what you don’t seem to understand is just how radically the transfer portal change has impacted HS senior recruiting for men’s soccer (frankly also men’s football and basketball). Recruiting prior to 2021 is not at all indicative of recruiting now. To give just one example of the change, some D1 coaches have stopped going to college showcases they used to always attend, because they know they won’t look at any high school seniors.[b] The change is profound.

Essentially men’s soccer is moving to a model more similar to men’s hockey, where the expectation is that kids who want to play D1 will play juniors first.

So true!!! Clicking on the 'coaches in attendance' button, there are very few and often not the head coach or even the assistant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Girl, plays an individual, not a team, sport

Of her peers, at 6 we knew who liked the sport but by 12 we knew who had talent

By 14, we knew who had survived puberty and associated injuries and rehab enough to continue

By end of sophomore year, we knew who had the drive and ambition to go all out to try to do sport in college and/or internationally and/or professionally

By mid-Junior year, we knew who hadn't sacrificed so much studying time to the sport that they still had a decent shot at meeting benchmark academic qualifications

By decision day, not all peers decided to even go to college. Of those who did, some chose not to participate D1 but rather D3 for less pressure than they had experienced growing up. We know one who gave up the sport the day after parents dropped her off at school.

My 17-year old has growth-related injuries that took him out this entire Fall season. The late growth at a quick pace and the level of training created all kinds of issues. He's hoping to be back sometime in mid-January. He's a Junior. Never would have predicted this. Orthopedist and PT said it's very common.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Boy D1 soccer. Was clear that was his likely path by age 12, 7th grade.

The problem is 99% of parents with 12-year old boy travel players on top teams at that she think they same. It rarely pans out.

We did not find this to be the case, but we were on a high-level team where virtually every kid had one or more very knowledgeable soccer parents (DH in my case), and the families who didn’t sought out advice from those who did. If you polled all the knowledgeable parents on the team about which kids at 12 had college potential if they kept their grades up, the results would have been at least 75% accurate. I agree that a parent who does not know the game is not going to be able to make that prediction, and kids can go in a variety of directions depending on personalities and circumstances.

Like Hampden Sydney, Christopher Newport, Randolph Macon, Mount St. Mary's to play? I have seen pretty much zero boys going to UNC, Stanford, Duke, UCLA, UVA, etc. from this area. I have been watching the commits at my kid's big Club (considered one of the best in the DMV) since 2010 and the neighboring MLSNxt Club's commits. There were a few that went over to DC United academy, but not many top colleges/programs. The girls were different, of course.

I have seen so many parents who told me their kid had 'pro potential' or would play D1 when these boys were little. Most had dropped the Club after Junior year of HS when it was apparent that wasn't panning out. I saw some families drive 1,000s upon 1,000s of miles and fly too and dump so much time and effort and to come up short. I am one of the parents you talk about-pro in the family and several D1 players (who I'm not sure would be D1 with the huge landscape and number of foreign players taking college spots today).

Where was your Club? I'd be very interested to know.

What club commits were you looking at? In recent years BSC has sent boys to most Ivies (Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, Princeton, Cornell), Stanford, Duke, Georgetown, and plenty of other good D1 schools plus several academically excellent D3s. None of the kids on the top couple of teams suddenly blossomed or tanked (barring injury) when they were 15 or 16 and ended up with very different options from what was expected in late MS. Of course lots of kids at all levels at all clubs will end up choosing a school based on academic fit alone and will forgo recruitment.

I’m not sure why this seems to be such controversial notion. It’s pretty obvious whether a kid is a good athlete by 11 or 12 in most cases, right? If you combine good athletes, good training with other competitive kids, parents who value academics and education and generally have plenty of discretionary income (which describes most families who gravitate to BSC and similar clubs in other areas) and years of hard work, your odds of ending up as a recruitable athlete are pretty good. I’d noted in my earlier post that a knowledgeable parent or coach can often make a pretty good prediction in MS about what a kid’s ceiling is IF that kid continues playing AND has good academics. I’m not suggesting that any random parent who doesn’t know the game or how recruitment works can do the same. And it’s not surprising that kids who play for DCUnited often end up with fewer elite college admissions no matter their academic talents. Kids there who are talented enough athletically that a pro-career is realistic are going to be doing online school their last couple years of HS, and that makes it tough to get into some schools whose coaches would be delighted to have them.

If by previous years, you mean prior to the change in the transfer rules, then that’s pretty irrelevant to the current D1 recruiting landscape. Most D1 recruits from prior to the change would not be D1 recruits now.

I’m talking about recruits from the HS Classes of 2018-22. It goes without saying that any assessment of athletic recruitability occurring before a player commits/signs an NLI will be made based on the rules in place at the time of the assessment.

Of course, but what you don’t seem to understand is just how radically the transfer portal change has impacted HS senior recruiting for men’s soccer (frankly also men’s football and basketball). Recruiting prior to 2021 is not at all indicative of recruiting now. To give just one example of the change, some D1 coaches have stopped going to college showcases they used to always attend, because they know they won’t look at any high school seniors. The change is profound.

Essentially men’s soccer is moving to a model more similar to men’s hockey, where the expectation is that kids who want to play D1 will play juniors first.

No there is a huge difference between the highest level club soccer and pro development. The players in the USL are vastly better vs college. The speed of play, athleticism, professional training, etc.

Uh, yes? Nobody disputes that USL plays at a higher level than club, so I have no idea why you even bring it up. That has nothing to do with this conversation. Are you the person who somehow believes that what happened in 2018 in Bethesda soccer is remotely relevant to D1 soccer recruiting today?

I’m the BSC poster and have not written about USL. You are straying far off topic. This is not a thread about transfer portals or D1 soccer recruiting; it’s about the age at which it’s possible to project a kid’s athletic ability into the future regardless of the sport or level they may ultimately attain if they stay the course. Why don’t you answer the OP’s question instead of attacking others?

It is entirely on-topic, but you are attacking me because you don’t like today’s college recruiting landscape for men’s soccer, which is what I am talking about. You are angry at me for describing the reality of men’s college soccer recruiting. I’m sorry, but you are shooting the messenger here.

The question in OP is at what age it is possible to predict whether a child plays athletics in college. For men’s soccer, that answer is significantly impacted by the recent changes to the transfer portal, because kids who used to be good candidates for D1 (or even D2/D3) are now no longer candidates. Kids who four years ago would have been obvious candidates when they were in 10th grade are no longer such obvious candidates, because so few kids are recruited to teams as seniors at this point. That change is causing a ripple effect: kids who were obvious candidates for D1 as sophomores/juniors four years ago are now maybe looking at D2/D3 feeder programs to D1, and hoping to transfer. And kids who four years ago would have been identified as D3 candidates at about the same time are now looking to play club. The point is that in order to accurately answer OPs question for men’s soccer, you need to understand just how profoundly recruiting has changed for the sport.

I mean, if you prefer we could just say that statistically your child’s odds of playing D1 men’s soccer as a freshman are vanishingly low and getting sharply lower, and just leave it at that.

I don't understand what you're saying. The total number of roster spots are the same. Top programs recruiting via the transfer portal just means open spots at the schools they are pulling those transfers from; the total number of players remains unchanged.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Girl, plays an individual, not a team, sport

Of her peers, at 6 we knew who liked the sport but by 12 we knew who had talent

By 14, we knew who had survived puberty and associated injuries and rehab enough to continue

By end of sophomore year, we knew who had the drive and ambition to go all out to try to do sport in college and/or internationally and/or professionally

By mid-Junior year, we knew who hadn't sacrificed so much studying time to the sport that they still had a decent shot at meeting benchmark academic qualifications

By decision day, not all peers decided to even go to college. Of those who did, some chose not to participate D1 but rather D3 for less pressure than they had experienced growing up. We know one who gave up the sport the day after parents dropped her off at school.

My 17-year old has growth-related injuries that took him out this entire Fall season. The late growth at a quick pace and the level of training created all kinds of issues. He's hoping to be back sometime in mid-January. He's a Junior. Never would have predicted this. Orthopedist and PT said it's very common.

One the girl's side, the big hope is that if they get an ACL tear the do it early enough to be back prior to recruiting. Time it wrong, and there goes their chance of playing in college

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We were not sure she was at the D1 level until coaches started calling/texting on June 15th before her junior year. Up until that point we knew she had talent but weren’t sure if she was D1 or D3 since coaches couldn't contact her. You never really know until you start getting interest and then offers.

This. Child has to love the sport.

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Anonymous wrote:Child is a swimmer, many of the fastest of whom get recruited at the end of Sophomore year, so that is when you really know.

I remember my child’s age group coach saying that they can never tell- the kids they thought were total winners at 9/10 or 11/12 didn’t end up as much, and there were kids who were slower at those ages that got recruited in HS.

I think the Katie Ledeckys and Michael Phelps of the world are really the exception and for the most part you have to wait until HS (and boys start getting really fast after HS)

As a board member at a big club, your coach is blowing smoke. The coaches almost always have a good idea which kids will eventually be recruited by 11/12. And swimmers who are mediocre at those ages but suddenly become very fast are very, very few and far between. It’s not just times at the young ages, it’s watching them in the water. Work ethic is part of it too. The coaches talk and are almost always right.

I think you can tell which kids have the potential and which kids just don't, but you don't know which girls will end up being 5'1 and which ones will be 5'10. Swimming is a sport where height and shoulder width are very very important and you don't know until puberty which kids will end up big and strong enough

Maybe the coaches knew, but I had a B/BB swimmer at age 11-12. She loved the sport and just kept at it, but we didn't think much of it in terms of college. Then she put up sectionals cuts at 14 and futures cuts at 15. They kept moving her up in groups, so maybe the coaches saw something and it was only a surprise to me. So I guess I'm validating your post that the coaches know their business?

The coach was just collecting a check. If your kid was not there another would step in and keep paying.

Truth

+1

[Anonymous]

Boys and girls recruiting are so different that it is really apples and oranges.

I know a handful of boys well who were D1 athletes, and they were all standouts from a young age. It depends on the sport for when they knew they were definitely a D1 prospect

I think it is important to remember there is a huge range in D1 athletics. Only one of these kids is at a school that is in a power 5 conference and actually wins NCAA titles for their sport. Most of them ended up at schools the typical DCUM parent would never even consider.

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Damn

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Anonymous wrote:Boy D1 soccer. Was clear that was his likely path by age 12, 7th grade.

The problem is 99% of parents with 12-year old boy travel players on top teams at that she think they same. It rarely pans out.

We did not find this to be the case, but we were on a high-level team where virtually every kid had one or more very knowledgeable soccer parents (DH in my case), and the families who didn’t sought out advice from those who did. If you polled all the knowledgeable parents on the team about which kids at 12 had college potential if they kept their grades up, the results would have been at least 75% accurate. I agree that a parent who does not know the game is not going to be able to make that prediction, and kids can go in a variety of directions depending on personalities and circumstances.

Like Hampden Sydney, Christopher Newport, Randolph Macon, Mount St. Mary's to play? I have seen pretty much zero boys going to UNC, Stanford, Duke, UCLA, UVA, etc. from this area. I have been watching the commits at my kid's big Club (considered one of the best in the DMV) since 2010 and the neighboring MLSNxt Club's commits. There were a few that went over to DC United academy, but not many top colleges/programs. The girls were different, of course.

I have seen so many parents who told me their kid had 'pro potential' or would play D1 when these boys were little. Most had dropped the Club after Junior year of HS when it was apparent that wasn't panning out. I saw some families drive 1,000s upon 1,000s of miles and fly too and dump so much time and effort and to come up short. I am one of the parents you talk about-pro in the family and several D1 players (who I'm not sure would be D1 with the huge landscape and number of foreign players taking college spots today).

Where was your Club? I'd be very interested to know.

What club commits were you looking at? In recent years BSC has sent boys to most Ivies (Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, Princeton, Cornell), Stanford, Duke, Georgetown, and plenty of other good D1 schools plus several academically excellent D3s. None of the kids on the top couple of teams suddenly blossomed or tanked (barring injury) when they were 15 or 16 and ended up with very different options from what was expected in late MS. Of course lots of kids at all levels at all clubs will end up choosing a school based on academic fit alone and will forgo recruitment.

I’m not sure why this seems to be such controversial notion. It’s pretty obvious whether a kid is a good athlete by 11 or 12 in most cases, right? If you combine good athletes, good training with other competitive kids, parents who value academics and education and generally have plenty of discretionary income (which describes most families who gravitate to BSC and similar clubs in other areas) and years of hard work, your odds of ending up as a recruitable athlete are pretty good. I’d noted in my earlier post that a knowledgeable parent or coach can often make a pretty good prediction in MS about what a kid’s ceiling is IF that kid continues playing AND has good academics. I’m not suggesting that any random parent who doesn’t know the game or how recruitment works can do the same. And it’s not surprising that kids who play for DCUnited often end up with fewer elite college admissions no matter their academic talents. Kids there who are talented enough athletically that a pro-career is realistic are going to be doing online school their last couple years of HS, and that makes it tough to get into some schools whose coaches would be delighted to have them.

If by previous years, you mean prior to the change in the transfer rules, then that’s pretty irrelevant to the current D1 recruiting landscape. Most D1 recruits from prior to the change would not be D1 recruits now.

I’m talking about recruits from the HS Classes of 2018-22. It goes without saying that any assessment of athletic recruitability occurring before a player commits/signs an NLI will be made based on the rules in place at the time of the assessment.

Of course, but what you don’t seem to understand is just how radically the transfer portal change has impacted HS senior recruiting for men’s soccer (frankly also men’s football and basketball). Recruiting prior to 2021 is not at all indicative of recruiting now. To give just one example of the change, some D1 coaches have stopped going to college showcases they used to always attend, because they know they won’t look at any high school seniors. The change is profound.

Essentially men’s soccer is moving to a model more similar to men’s hockey, where the expectation is that kids who want to play D1 will play juniors first.

No there is a huge difference between the highest level club soccer and pro development. The players in the USL are vastly better vs college. The speed of play, athleticism, professional training, etc.

Uh, yes? Nobody disputes that USL plays at a higher level than club, so I have no idea why you even bring it up. That has nothing to do with this conversation. Are you the person who somehow believes that what happened in 2018 in Bethesda soccer is remotely relevant to D1 soccer recruiting today?

I’m the BSC poster and have not written about USL. You are straying far off topic. This is not a thread about transfer portals or D1 soccer recruiting; it’s about the age at which it’s possible to project a kid’s athletic ability into the future regardless of the sport or level they may ultimately attain if they stay the course. Why don’t you answer the OP’s question instead of attacking others?

It is entirely on-topic, but you are attacking me because you don’t like today’s college recruiting landscape for men’s soccer, which is what I am talking about. You are angry at me for describing the reality of men’s college soccer recruiting. I’m sorry, but you are shooting the messenger here.

The question in OP is at what age it is possible to predict whether a child plays athletics in college. For men’s soccer, that answer is significantly impacted by the recent changes to the transfer portal, because kids who used to be good candidates for D1 (or even D2/D3) are now no longer candidates. Kids who four years ago would have been obvious candidates when they were in 10th grade are no longer such obvious candidates, because so few kids are recruited to teams as seniors at this point. That change is causing a ripple effect: kids who were obvious candidates for D1 as sophomores/juniors four years ago are now maybe looking at D2/D3 feeder programs to D1, and hoping to transfer. And kids who four years ago would have been identified as D3 candidates at about the same time are now looking to play club. The point is that in order to accurately answer OPs question for men’s soccer, you need to understand just how profoundly recruiting has changed for the sport.

I mean, if you prefer we could just say that statistically your child’s odds of playing D1 men’s soccer as a freshman are vanishingly low and getting sharply lower, and just leave it at that.

I don't understand what you're saying. The total number of roster spots are the same. Top programs recruiting via the transfer portal just means open spots at the schools they are pulling those transfers from; the total number of players remains unchanged.

Every single year in men’s soccer for the past ten years the percentage of international players has risen. Also, the number of NCAA mens soccer teams has stayed essentially static even while interest in the sport has soared. In 1996 there were 197 mens D1 teams. Today there are 205 mens D1 programs. Let’s say each D1 team has a roster of 30. You can do the math.

So no, the total number of roster spots available for a HS senior is not staying the same over the years. Also, it’s unlikely that the D1 schools will pull junior transfers very heavily from academically good D3 schools because D3 athletes lose so much training ground in the spring. They aren’t allowed to train in the spring very much at all, so they can’t compete with athletes at lower D1 programs, D2 programs, and international recruits.

Essentially your HS senior has almost no chance of playing D1 mens soccer as a freshman.