Waitlist prediction - LAMB

[Anonymous]

I don’t recall how much LAMB list moves.

Any chance we will get a call for PK4:

South Dakota - lows 20s
LAMB - low 50s

[Anonymous]

No, 0 chance for prek4 sorry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No, 0 chance for prek4 sorry.

Even when it was its own lottery across both campuses, the PK4 WL never moved more than a couple of spots at most. Of course with the move, anything is possible for the SD campus, but I would still be really surprised if these numbers were good enough to get a spot.

[Anonymous]

I'll just keep this going instead of creating a new thread with the same question. #7 for PK4 @SD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'll just keep this going instead of creating a new thread with the same question. #7 for PK4 @SD?

Probably not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'll just keep this going instead of creating a new thread with the same question. #7 for PK4 @SD?

I think it's unlikely but not out of he realm of possibility. There will be only about 25 PK4 spots total in all of SD next year. So it seems that moving 7 spots would be a pretty big percentage of total spots. Of course with the move to Kingsbury, this is definitely the year where you would have a chance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'll just keep this going instead of creating a new thread with the same question. #7 for PK4 @SD?

I think it's unlikely but not out of he realm of possibility. There will be only about 25 PK4 spots total in all of SD next year. So it seems that moving 7 spots would be a pretty big percentage of total spots. Of course with the move to Kingsbury, this is definitely the year where you would have a chance.

Right- the SD campus will have fewer kids with sibling preference because it only has through K, so you at least have that going for you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'll just keep this going instead of creating a new thread with the same question. #7 for PK4 @SD?

I think it's unlikely but not out of he realm of possibility. There will be only about 25 PK4 spots total in all of SD next year. So it seems that moving 7 spots would be a pretty big percentage of total spots. Of course with the move to Kingsbury, this is definitely the year where you would have a chance.

Right- the SD campus will have fewer kids with sibling preference because it only has through K, so you at least have that going for you.

True but this would be a pretty high level of attrition for current PK3 kids. What it really depends on is how many matches they offered at PK4, or if they decided only to create a waitlist for now and see who re enrolls. Some are moving to Kingsbury of course so it’s possible you will get in.

[Anonymous]

Ok so since people keep asking I’m going to make a prediction just for fun.

Kingsbury:
PK3: will take numbers up to 12
PK4: up to 6
K: none

SD:
PK3: will take WL up to 20
PK4: 5
K: 5

Anyone?

[Anonymous]

How do you all know how many calls are made to fill the spots though? We don’t have data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ok so since people keep asking I’m going to make a prediction just for fun.

Kingsbury:
PK3: will take numbers up to 12
PK4: up to 6
K: none

SD:
PK3: will take WL up to 20
PK4: 5
K: 5

Anyone?

I'm guessing these numbers are overly optimistic (except for Kingsbury PK3 - that seems right to me) and my just-for-fun guesses are below:

Kingsbury:
PK3: will take numbers up to 12
PK4: up to 3
K: none

SD:
PK3: will take WL up to 9
PK4: 3
K: 2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How do you all know how many calls are made to fill the spots though? We don’t have data.

I think just ballpark guessing based on number of spots the school said they had last year and how far down the list they went?

[Anonymous]

I'll come back to update when we don't make it in.

-#7 , PK4 @SD

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you all know how many calls are made to fill the spots though? We don’t have data.

I think just ballpark guessing based on number of spots the school said they had last year and how far down the list they went?

We don't know have many calls are made. We don't even know how many spots there have been in the past (and even that is not a perfect correlation to the number of calls that are made. Even in other schools where there is historical data, no one knows how this year will go. LAMB is just more interesting because this is its first year in the MSDC lottery, and so there is more uncertainty. So people are just making guesses. I read these guesses as "if you have #X in the WL right now, you will/will not be offered a spot." But obviously, they are just guesses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you all know how many calls are made to fill the spots though? We don’t have data.

I think just ballpark guessing based on number of spots the school said they had last year and how far down the list they went?

Oh wow. I thought I remember last year or year before hearing someone got called that was in 40s or 50s. Guess I didn’t know when that was.