Trump 47 Economy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The May shipments from China are already enroute and show at least a 50% reduction in products. This will hit US selves on the west coast in about two week and Chicago by June.

The president won't be able to hide that.

If that’s the case, then it will also affect the workers who unload the ships and the truck drivers who transport the goods.

You mean all those MAGA teamsters that supported Trump?

They should be happy they voted for all this and more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The May shipments from China are already enroute and show at least a 50% reduction in products. This will hit US selves on the west coast in about two week and Chicago by June.

The president won't be able to hide that.

People are cutting spending, so having less stock on shelves will hurt retailers more than consumers, but reduced spending will result in more layoffs and more reductions in purchasing and spending, etc., ie, a recession.

There may be some idea among Republicans that a recession now will lead to a big recovery and better economy in time for the midterms to give them a boost - but Trump has started a runaway horse that will not respond and behave on command on anyone's time.

This.
But worse. Suspect we are on our way to a depression. This was not caused by an external shock. It’s caused by continuing stupidity. There is no stimulus that can overcome stupidity. Plus Trump has destroyed the credibility of the dollar which will make it tricky to service the debt.

[Anonymous]

What some people who know more than most of us about economic matters have to say about what's headed our way:


Nouriel Roubini:
Who: Economist known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis.

Statement: Warned of a "perfect storm" of risk factors, including persistent inflation, restrictive monetary policy, high private sector debt, and geopolitical tensions. He estimated an 80% probability of a recession by Q4 2025, citing vulnerabilities in corporate debt, with $2.8 trillion in leveraged loans and high-yield bonds needing refinancing at higher rates.

Jamie Dimon:
Who: CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

Statement: Initially dismissive of tariff concerns, Dimon recently shifted his stance, warning of potential recession, defaults, and a decline in the U.S. dollar’s value due to escalating trade tensions. This change was noted in posts on X on April 16, 2025.

David Solomon:
Who: CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Statement: On April 14, 2025, Solomon indicated that the prospects of a recession have increased, reflecting growing concerns about economic stability amid policy shifts.

Ray Dalio:
Who: American billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates.

Statement: On April 14, 2025, Dalio warned that the U.S. is near a recession, expressing deeper concerns about a potential breakdown of the monetary and global world order, drawing parallels to the 1930s due to debt, tariffs, and geopolitical shifts.

Janet Yellen:
Who: U.S. Treasury Secretary.

Statement: On April 14, 2025, Yellen reportedly stated that the U.S. would be "lucky to skirt a recession", highlighting the risks posed by current economic policies, particularly tariffs.

Rick Rieder:
Who: Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock.

Statement: On April 16, 2025, Rieder claimed the economy is in a recession now, advocating for increased investments in gold and cash as hedges against economic downturn.

Jeffrey Gundlach:
Who: CEO of DoubleLine Capital, known as the "Bond King."

Statement: Gundlach estimated a 50% to 60% chance of a recession, citing the uncertainty shock from evolving tariff policies as a key driver of economic slowdown.

Mark Zandi:
Who: Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Statement: Zandi told CBC News on April 9, 2025, that a global recession is virtually inevitable unless the U.S. significantly reduces or eliminates its tariffs, emphasizing the impact of trade wars on consumer spending and layoffs.

Bill Dudley:
Who: Former President of the New York Federal Reserve.

Statement: On March 11, 2025, Dudley noted that while it’s premature to forecast a recession, the risk has "definitely gone up" due to confusion and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies.

CFOs Surveyed by CNBC:
Who: A majority of chief financial officers in the CNBC CFO Council Survey.

Statement: On March 25, 2025, 60% of surveyed CFOs predicted a recession in the second half of 2025, with 15% expecting it in 2026. They cited Trump’s tariffs and chaotic policy implementation as major contributors to their pessimism.

[Anonymous]

WTF is “strategic” about “uncertainty”?

[Anonymous]

Oh hey speaking of uncertainty, it just claimed 1,000 jobs in Wisconsin and Ohio.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:China cancels a 12,000 ton pork order. That is going to hurt someone in the midwest.

I thought that was the Carolinas?

I’m from NC. Can confirm hog farming is huge in the Eastern part of the state. To the point that hog sh*t becomes a hazard when it floods.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Economy tanking but those tax breaks are coming…you just have to wait a little longer!

Great. He’s just doubling down on his catastrophically stupid ideas and lies. Emptying store shelves are going to be hard to hide, though…

Oh, oh, oh— can we start queuing for our bread rations, like the USSR did? MAGA.

In all seriousness, stocking up on shelf stable and household necessities this weekend. COVID supply chain disruptions were a mess. Our neighborhood FB group was full of— spotted at Giant— this specific staple. I bought up to the limit and the first 3 people to respond can have it at cost. Everyone else, go now if you need it.

Here we go again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump has claimed tariff negotiations with 200 countries, but doesn't name them. Navarros claimed they could get a deal done with 90 countries in 90 days...it is two weeks later and no deals announced. Trump claimed negotiations with China have started. Chain refutes that claim.

Face it, we are going to get to July and no deals will be struck, except maybe with the penguins, and our economy is going to roll off a cliff.

lol. The UN recognizes 193 nations, plus Vatican City and Gaza have some status. Dude is so amazing here literally created 5 nations to trade with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump has claimed tariff negotiations with 200 countries, but doesn't name them. Navarros claimed they could get a deal done with 90 countries in 90 days...it is two weeks later and no deals announced. Trump claimed negotiations with China have started. Chain refutes that claim.

Face it, we are going to get to July and no deals will be struck, except maybe with the penguins, and our economy is going to roll off a cliff.

Are you kidding? The penguins are leading the resistance.

https://www.euronews.com/culture/2025/04/14/penguin-protest-march-against-trumps-tariffs-coming-this-week

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:China cancels a 12,000 ton pork order. That is going to hurt someone in the midwest.

I thought that was the Carolinas?

It’s North Carolina

Biggest pork producing states are Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Illinois, and Indiana.

That’s a problem for Trump. He can write off Illinois as too blue. The rest? Not so much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The May shipments from China are already enroute and show at least a 50% reduction in products. This will hit US selves on the west coast in about two week and Chicago by June.

The president won't be able to hide that.

45% of household appliances come from China. Lots of other things too. Supply will get scarce and prices will rise.

I buy high quality clothing from a small US based company with a focus on sustainability/ natural fibers/ classic styles. They manufacture about 2/3 in S.Korea and 1/3 in China. Placed a large order last week for wardrobe staples to get me through the next 2-3 years. I’m a loyal customer and hope they pull through. They have a smaller EU division and it looks like their plan is to reduced the US foot print and increase the EU one. They aren’t hiding the fact they are panicking. Good quality clothes with sustainable materials aren’t cheap. They can’t double the price and sell enough here to stay in business. And they can’t find a US based manufacturer that doesn’t double the price. And I’m seeing a lot of tariff notices coming out of other small US based businesses. Good small businesses are going to go under. And for what?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The May shipments from China are already enroute and show at least a 50% reduction in products. This will hit US selves on the west coast in about two week and Chicago by June.

The president won't be able to hide that.

People are cutting spending, so having less stock on shelves will hurt retailers more than consumers, but reduced spending will result in more layoffs and more reductions in purchasing and spending, etc., ie, a recession.

There may be some idea among Republicans that a recession now will lead to a big recovery and better economy in time for the midterms to give them a boost - but Trump has started a runaway horse that will not respond and behave on command on anyone's time.

Then Republicans are betting on the wrong horse. We haven’t really even hit a recession yet. Once we do, show me a recession that’s had a significant recovery in 15 month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WTF is “strategic” about “uncertainty”?

+1. Uncertainty freezes the economy. Right now, businesses aren’t investing and consumers aren’t buying— not because we are in a recession, but because everyone is watching and waiting. And this will trigger a recession. And I got to this conclusion with a 9th grade economics and government class 30 years ago, and common sense.

[Anonymous]

I went to Trader Joe's and Costco today and both were packed with people buying cartloads of stuff.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:China cancels a 12,000 ton pork order. That is going to hurt someone in the midwest.

I thought that was the Carolinas?

I’m from NC. Can confirm hog farming is huge in the Eastern part of the state. To the point that hog sh*t becomes a hazard when it floods.

Absolutely true. And during Hurricanes it's not just massive amounts of hog shit, it's pig carcasses clogging and polluting streams.

And get this: In the 2014 Consolidated Appropriations Bill the Republicans put language in place blocking EPA from requesting data about livestock operations, arguing that the data is already collected by USDA, but farther down in the same bill they put language in place prohibiting USDA from sharing any data about livestock operations with the EPA, so the one agency that's supposed to deal with things like a flood of hog manure basically got blindfolded, muzzled and ziptied and shoved in a closet, again in the name of unfettered capitalism.

In 2016, Hurricane Matthew killed millions of farm animals and washed massive amounts of manure and carcasses into streams, causing significant contamination - https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/10/hurricane-matthew-killed-animals-hog-poop and it keeps happening (Hurricane Florence in 2018, et cetera) and yet those dumb Republican laws are still in place.